实施适当的育种计划对于控制性能波动至关重要,增强适应性,进一步提高奶牛的杂交种群。考虑到研究区域中可用的育种单位,对五个替代育种计划(BP)进行了建模,现有的杂交做法,以及埃塞俄比亚乳业研究与开发的未来前景。该研究针对Arsi的54,822个小户家庭的143,576头杂交母牛,WestShewa,和奥罗米亚地区的北谢瓦地区,以及阿姆哈拉地区的北舍瓦地区。替代BP包括常规的站上后代测试(SPT),常规农场后代测试(FPT),常规的站内和农场后代测试(SFPT),基因组选择(GS),和基因组后代测试(GPT)。用于对BP进行建模的输入参数来自对从Holetta农业研究中心获得的长期数据的分析以及在研究区域进行的调查。ZPLAN软件用于预测遗传增益(GG)的估计值和目标性状的折现利润。预测每年产奶量(MY)的遗传增益(GGs)为34.52kg,49.63千克,29.35kg,76.16千克,SPT为77.51公斤,FPT,SFPT,GS,和GPT,分别。其他目标性状的GGG范围从0.69到1.19天每年的年龄在第一次产牛,从每年1.20天到2.35天的产卵间隔,从每年0.06天到0.12天为羊群寿命。与传统BP相比,基因组系统(GPT和GS)将MY的GG提高了53%-164%,将生成间隔减少多达21%,并将测试公牛选择的准确性从0.33提高到0.43。BP的折现利润从249.58埃塞俄比亚比尔(ETB,1美元=39.55696ETB)每年SPT到689.79ETB每年GS。基因组选择优于SPT,SFPT,和FPT的266,227%,和贴现利润的138%,分别。建议将基于社区的杂交育种与GS以及后代测试(GPT)的逐步支持作为埃塞俄比亚奶牛场和其他热带国家类似情况下实现更好遗传进步的主要途径。
Implementing an appropriate breeding program is crucial to control fluctuation in performance, enhance adaptation, and further improve the crossbred population of dairy cattle. Five alternative breeding programs (BPs) were modeled considering available breeding units in the study area, the existing crossbreeding practices, and the future prospects of dairy research and development in Ethiopia. The study targeted 143,576 crossbred cows of 54,822 smallholder households in the Arsi, West Shewa, and North Shewa zones of the Oromia Region, as well as the North Shewa zone of the Amhara Region. The alternative BPs include conventional on-station progeny testing (SPT), conventional on-farm progeny testing (FPT), conventional on-station and on-farm progeny testing (SFPT), genomic selection (GS), and genomic progeny testing (GPT). Input parameters for modeling the BPs were taken from the analysis of long-term data obtained from the Holetta Agricultural Research Center and a survey conducted in the study area. ZPLAN+ software was used to predict estimates of genetic gain (GG) and discounted profit for goal traits. The predicted genetic gains (GGs) for milk yield (MY) per year were 34.52 kg, 49.63 kg, 29.35 kg, 76.16 kg, and 77.51 kg for SPT, FPT, SFPT, GS, and GPT, respectively. The GGs of the other goal traits range from 0.69 to 1.19 days per year for age at first calving, from 1.20 to 2.35 days per year for calving interval, and from 0.06 to 0.12 days per year for herd life. Compared to conventional BPs, genomic systems (GPT and GS) enhanced the GG of MY by 53%-164%, reduced generation interval by up to 21%, and improved the accuracy of test bull selection from 0.33 to 0.43. The discounted profit of the BPs varied from 249.58 Ethiopian Birr (ETB, 1 USD = 39.55696 ETB) per year in SPT to 689.79 ETB per year in GS. Genomic selection outperforms SPT, SFPT, and FPT by 266, 227%, and 138% of discounted profit, respectively. Community-based crossbreeding accompanied by GS and gradual support with progeny testing (GPT) is recommended as the main way forward to attain better genetic progress in dairy farms in Ethiopia and similar scenarios in other tropical countries.