FLUXNET

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    气候引起的植物物候和生理变化对于调节陆地生产力和生态系统功能至关重要。然而,草地物候的时空格局及其与环境因子的关系尚不清楚。我们使用FLUXNET数据集(34个站点和169个站点年)从草原中提取了物候指标。然后,我们探索了物候指标的时空变化,它们与毛初级生产力(3GPP)的关系,及其背后的驱动机制,采用回归分析和结构方程建模方法。生长季节(SOS)的开始显着提前,而生长季节(EOS)的结束略有延迟(不显著),随着北纬的增加,导致生长季节(LOS)的延长(略微显着)。草地站点的多年平均3GPP与LOS呈指数相关,与GPPmax(最大值)呈线性相关。物候指标与年平均温度呈线性关系,与年平均降水量(MAP)呈二次关系。EOS,LOS,和GPPmax增加(SOS减少)与最初的MAP,然后,当MAP达到1000mm的阈值时,趋平或降低(SOS增加)。时空上,季前土壤含水量(SWC)和气温显著影响SOS,风速是EOS的主要环境驱动力。结构方程模型进一步表明,降低风速可能会通过降低大气和土壤干燥度来延迟EOS。总之,我们的研究结果表明,改进的草地物候模型可以预测SOS的推进,延迟的EOS,以及LOS的扩展,以响应未来风速的降低和湿度的增加。
    Climate-induced changes in plant phenology and physiology are crucial in regulating terrestrial productivity and ecosystem functions. However, the spatiotemporal patterns of grassland phenology and its relationships with environmental factors remain unclear. We extracted phenological metrics from grasslands using the FLUXNET dataset (34 sites and 169 site-year). We then explored the spatiotemporal variations in phenological metrics, their relationships with gross primary productivity (GPP), and the driving mechanisms behind them using regression analysis and structural equation modeling methods. The start of the growing season (SOS) significantly advanced, whereas the end of the growing season (EOS) was slightly delayed (non-significant), leading to an extension of the growing season (LOS) (marginally significant) with increasing latitude northward. The multi-year averaged GPP in grassland sites was exponentially correlated with LOS and linearly correlated with maximum GPP (GPPmax). Phenological metrics exhibited linear relationships with mean annual temperature and quadratic relationships with mean annual precipitation (MAP). EOS, LOS, and GPPmax increased (SOS decreased) with MAP initially, then leveled off or decreased (SOS increased) when MAP reached a threshold of 1000 mm. Spatiotemporally, preseason soil water content (SWC) and air temperature significantly affected SOS, and wind speed was the dominant environmental driver for EOS. Structural equation modeling further suggested that decreasing wind speed might delay the EOS by reducing the atmospheric and soil dryness. In conclusion, our findings suggested that an improved grassland phenological model could project an advancing SOS, a delaying EOS, and an extension of LOS in response to decreasing wind speed and increased moisture in the future.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    关于全球初级生产总值(3GPP)的高度不确定性仍未解决。本研究探讨了物候之间的关系,生理学,和年度阵,为准确估计提供可行的替代方案。使用来自145个FLUXNET站点的GMP数据开发了综合物候和生理学(SMIPP)的统计模型,以估算各种植被类型的年度GMP。通过采用由全球碳吸收期(CUP)和最大碳吸收能力(GPPmax)的卫星数据集驱动的SMIPP模型,估计2001年至2018年期间的全球年度计划。结果表明,SMIPP模型准确地预测了每年的3GPP,森林类型的相对均方根误差值为11.20至19.29%,非森林类型的相对均方根误差值为20.49-35.71%。然而,湿地,灌木丛,和常绿森林表现出相对较低的准确性。平均,趋势,2001-2018年全球3GPP年际变化分别为132.6PgCyr-1、0.25PgCyr-2和1.57PgCyr-1。它们在其他全球3GPP产品中估计的范围内。敏感性分析显示,GPPmax在高纬度地区的影响与CUP相当,但在全球范围内的影响明显更大。GPPmax的灵敏度系数为0.85±0.23,CUP的灵敏度系数为0.46±0.28。本研究提供了一种简单实用的方法来估计全球年度GP1,并强调了GPPmax和CUP对全球规模年度GP1的影响。
    The high uncertainty regarding global gross primary production (GPP) remains unresolved. This study explored the relationships between phenology, physiology, and annual GPP to provide viable alternatives for accurate estimation. A statistical model of integrated phenology and physiology (SMIPP) was developed using GPP data from 145 FLUXNET sites to estimate the annual GPP for various vegetation types. By employing the SMIPP model driven by satellite-derived datasets of the global carbon uptake period (CUP) and maximal carbon uptake capacity (GPPmax), the global annual GPP was estimated for the period from 2001 to 2018. The results demonstrated that the SMIPP model accurately predicted annual GPP, with relative root mean square error values ranging from 11.20 to 19.29% for forest types and 20.49-35.71% for non-forest types. However, wetlands, shrublands, and evergreen forests exhibited relatively low accuracies. The average, trend, and interannual variation of global GPP during 2001-2018 were 132.6 Pg C yr-1, 0.25 Pg C yr-2, and 1.57 Pg C yr-1, respectively. They were within the ranges estimated in other global GPP products. Sensitivity analysis revealed that GPPmax had comparable effects to CUP in high-latitude regions but significantly greater impacts at the global scale, with sensitivity coefficients of 0.85 ± 0.23 for GPPmax and 0.46 ± 0.28 for CUP. This study provides a simple and practical method for estimating global annual GPP and highlights the influence of GPPmax and CUP on global-scale annual GPP.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:了解不同生态系统的时间趋势和水分利用效率(WUE)对环境变化的变化响应是预测植被生长的关键。主要生态系统类型的WUE动态(例如,森林,草地和农田)已经使用各种WUE定义/指标进行了研究,但是缺乏使用多种WUE指标对不同生态系统类型之间的WUE动态及其驱动力的比较研究。我们使用了1997年至2014年42个FLUXNET2015站点(396个站点年)的涡流协方差测量,以及三个常用的WUE指标(即,生态系统,固有的,和潜在的WUE),以调查落叶阔叶林(DBF)之间WUE趋势和驱动因素的共性和差异,常绿针林(ENFs),草原,和农田。
    结果:我们的结果表明,WUE的时间趋势在73.8%的森林中没有统计学意义,草地和农田,在量化WUE方面,这三个WUE指标都没有表现出比其他指标更好的表现。同时,三个WUE指标观察到的趋势在森林之间没有显着差异,草地和农田生态系统。此外,WUE主要由具有显著WUE趋势的地点的大气二氧化碳浓度驱动,以及没有明显趋势的站点(农田除外)的蒸气压赤字(VPD)。
    结论:我们的发现揭示了三种WUE指标在不同生态系统中应用的共性和差异,并进一步强调了VPD对WUE变化的重要影响。
    BACKGROUND: Understanding temporal trends and varying responses of water use efficiency (WUE) to environmental changes of diverse ecosystems is key to predicting vegetation growth. WUE dynamics of major ecosystem types (e.g., forest, grassland and cropland) have been studied using various WUE definitions/metrics, but a comparative study on WUE dynamics and their driving forces among different ecosystem types using multiple WUE metrics is lacking. We used eddy covariance measurements for 42 FLUXNET2015 sites (396 site years) from 1997 to 2014, as well as three commonly used WUE metrics (i.e., ecosystem, inherent, and underlying WUE) to investigate the commonalities and differences in WUE trends and driving factors among deciduous broadleaf forests (DBFs), evergreen needleleaf forests (ENFs), grasslands, and croplands.
    RESULTS: Our results showed that the temporal trends of WUE were not statistically significant at 73.8% of the forest, grassland and cropland sites, and none of the three WUE metrics exhibited better performance than the others in quantifying WUE. Meanwhile, the trends observed for the three WUE metrics were not significantly different among forest, grassland and cropland ecosystems. In addition, WUE was mainly driven by atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration at sites with significant WUE trends, and by vapor pressure deficit (VPD) at sites without significant trends (except cropland).
    CONCLUSIONS: Our findings revealed the commonalities and differences in the application of three WUE metrics in disparate ecosystems, and further highlighted the important effect of VPD on WUE change.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    气象干旱强度随着大气对水的需求增加而增加(以下简称蒸汽压亏缺,VPD)增加了全球树木死亡和生态系统功能障碍的风险。生态系统规模的用水策略越来越被认为是调节与干旱有关的生态系统响应的关键因素。然而,用水战略与生态系统对气象干旱的脆弱性之间的联系尚不明确。利用全球通量观测,历史水文气候数据,遥感产品,和植物功能特性档案,我们确定了潜在的脆弱生态系统,研究生态系统用水战略,通过经验冠层电导对VPD的敏感性相对于理论值的百分比偏差(δ)量化,介导的生态系统对干旱的反应。我们发现,在土壤水分不足的生态系统通常表现出保守的用水策略的旱地地区,普遍存在的土壤水分有效性对δ产生了实质性影响。而湿润地区的生态系统表现出更明显的气候适应性。低敏和超敏的生态系统,根据δ低于或高于理论灵敏度进行分类,分别,在干旱期间实现了类似的净生态系统生产力,采用不同的结构和功能策略。然而,低敏感性生态系统,用允许的用水策略冒着液压系统的风险,无法像过敏一样迅速从干旱中恢复过来。我们的发现强调,预测植被当前功能和未来性能的基于处理的模型应考虑到低敏感性生态系统对加剧的大气和土壤干旱的更大脆弱性。
    Increased meteorological drought intensity with rising atmospheric demand for water (hereafter vapor pressure deficit [VPD]) increases the risk of tree mortality and ecosystem dysfunction worldwide. Ecosystem-scale water-use strategy is increasingly recognized as a key factor in regulating drought-related ecosystem responses. However, the link between water-use strategy and ecosystem vulnerability to meteorological droughts is poorly established. Using the global flux observations, historic hydroclimatic data, remote-sensing products, and plant functional-trait archive, we identified potentially vulnerable ecosystems, examining how ecosystem water-use strategy, quantified by the percentage bias (δ) of the empirical canopy conductance sensitivity to VPD relative to the theoretical value, mediated ecosystem responses to droughts. We found that prevailing soil water availability substantially impacted δ in dryland regions where ecosystems with insufficient soil moisture usually showed conservative water-use strategy, while ecosystems in humid regions exhibited more pronounced climatic adaptability. Hyposensitive and hypersensitive ecosystems, classified based on δ falling below or above the theoretical sensitivity, respectively, achieved similar net ecosystem productivity during droughts, employing different structural and functional strategies. However, hyposensitive ecosystems, risking their hydraulic system with a permissive water-use strategy, were unable to recover from droughts as quickly as hypersensitive ones. Our findings highlight that processed-based models predicting current functions and future performance of vegetation should account for the greater vulnerability of hyposensitive ecosystems to intensifying atmospheric and soil droughts.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在森林环境中,蒸腾占总蒸发量的大部分,但在景观到全球范围内进行预测仍然具有挑战性。我们利用了从共同定位的汁液流和涡流协方差测量系统得出的每日蒸腾作用的独立估计值,并应用了三重搭配技术来评估无需校准的大叶模型的预测。总的来说,在21个森林站点评估了608个独特配置的四个模型,这些模型涵盖了广泛的生物物理属性和环境背景。我们发现,在最佳配置时(rRMSE=20%;R2=0.89),既不明确表示空气动力学强迫也不表示冠层电导的更简单模型可实现更高的精度和信噪比。不考虑型号,最佳配置是那些利用关键工厂功能类型相关参数的配置,每日LAI,以及基于大气水分需求对土壤水分供应的约束。我们的发现对基于水文模型和遥感的更明智的水资源管理具有重要意义。
    Transpiration makes up the bulk of total evaporation in forested environments yet remains challenging to predict at landscape-to-global scales. We harnessed independent estimates of daily transpiration derived from co-located sap flow and eddy-covariance measurement systems and applied the triple collocation technique to evaluate predictions from big leaf models requiring no calibration. In total, four models in 608 unique configurations were evaluated at 21 forested sites spanning a wide diversity of biophysical attributes and environmental backgrounds. We found that simpler models that neither explicitly represented aerodynamic forcing nor canopy conductance achieved higher accuracy and signal-to-noise levels when optimally configured (rRMSE = 20%; R 2 = 0.89). Irrespective of model type, optimal configurations were those making use of key plant functional type dependent parameters, daily LAI, and constraints based on atmospheric moisture demand over soil moisture supply. Our findings have implications for more informed water resource management based on hydrological modeling and remote sensing.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    陆地生态系统的毛初级生产是全球碳循环的关键数量。叶片水平光合作用的瞬时控制已经建立,但是,对于冠层层3GPP取决于环境时空变化的机制仍未达成共识。光合作用的标准模型为C3物种提供了强大的机械表示;但是,需要额外的假设才能从树叶到树冠“放大”。因此,相互竞争的模型对3GPP将如何应对持续的环境变化做出不一致的预测。此问题是通过对从涡流协方差二氧化碳通量测量中推断出来的3GPP的光利用效率(LUE)进行经验分析来解决的。光合有效辐射(PAR)的原位测量,以及对植被冠层吸收的PAR(fAPAR)部分的遥感估计。专注于LUE可以将3GPP的潜在驱动器从其对光的最重要依赖中分离出来。来自100多个网站的3GPP数据,整理了20多年,位于一系列生物群落和气候带,从FLUXNET2015数据库中提取,并结合遥感fAPAR数据来估计每日LUE。日间气温,蒸气压力不足,太阳辐射的扩散部分,在广义线性混合效应模型中,土壤水分被证明是LUE的重要预测因子。相同的模型设计适用于16个陆地生态系统模型生成的基于站点的LUE估计。已发布的模型显示形状差异很大,力量,甚至是对建模Lue的环境影响的标志。这些发现突出了重要的模型缺陷,并表明需要超越简单的“拟合优度”比较推断和预测的碳通量,转向专注于基础依赖关系的功能响应的方法。
    Gross primary production (GPP) by terrestrial ecosystems is a key quantity in the global carbon cycle. The instantaneous controls of leaf-level photosynthesis are well established, but there is still no consensus on the mechanisms by which canopy-level GPP depends on spatial and temporal variation in the environment. The standard model of photosynthesis provides a robust mechanistic representation for C3 species; however, additional assumptions are required to \"scale up\" from leaf to canopy. As a consequence, competing models make inconsistent predictions about how GPP will respond to continuing environmental change. This problem is addressed here by means of an empirical analysis of the light use efficiency (LUE) of GPP inferred from eddy covariance carbon dioxide flux measurements, in situ measurements of photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), and remotely sensed estimates of the fraction of PAR (fAPAR) absorbed by the vegetation canopy. Focusing on LUE allows potential drivers of GPP to be separated from its overriding dependence on light. GPP data from over 100 sites, collated over 20 years and located in a range of biomes and climate zones, were extracted from the FLUXNET2015 database and combined with remotely sensed fAPAR data to estimate daily LUE. Daytime air temperature, vapor pressure deficit, diffuse fraction of solar radiation, and soil moisture were shown to be salient predictors of LUE in a generalized linear mixed-effects model. The same model design was fitted to site-based LUE estimates generated by 16 terrestrial ecosystem models. The published models showed wide variation in the shape, the strength, and even the sign of the environmental effects on modeled LUE. These findings highlight important model deficiencies and suggest a need to progress beyond simple \"goodness of fit\" comparisons of inferred and predicted carbon fluxes toward an approach focused on the functional responses of the underlying dependencies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    地下通风是一种非扩散的运输过程,它引起富含CO2的空气(以前储存的)通过无水土壤孔隙和裂缝从渗流区突然转移到大气中,在高湍流条件下。在旱地生态系统中,其生物碳交换特征不佳,它可以很好地确定用于验证遥感产品和约束毛初级生产力模型的涡流协方差CO2通量。尽管地下通风事件(VE)可能发生在干旱和半干旱地区,它们是全球碳循环中默默无闻的参与者,很少有研究关注VECO2排放在陆地-大气CO2交换中的作用。这项研究显示了全球发生的VE的明确经验证据。为了识别VE,我们使用了来自不同开放土地覆盖中145个地点的碳通量和辅助变量的原位质量控制涡流协方差开放数据(草地,农田,灌木丛,稀树草原,和贫瘠)遍布全球。我们从FLUXNET2015,AmeriFlux,OzFlux,和AsiaFlux网络。为了规范分析,我们设计了一种算法来检测VE在本研究中考虑的所有站点产生的CO2排放。它的主要要求是摩擦速度之间存在相当大的非虚假相关性(即,湍流)和二氧化碳排放。在分析的网站中,34%表现出VE的发生。这种排放的二氧化碳主要来自干旱生态系统(84%)和干热时期的地点。尽管数据可用性存在一些限制,这项研究表明,VE驱动的二氧化碳排放在全球范围内发生。未来的研究应该寻求更好地理解其驱动因素和分区模型的改进,减少估计的生物二氧化碳交换中的不确定性,并推断其对全球生态系统净碳平衡的贡献。
    Subterranean ventilation is a non-diffusive transport process that provokes the abrupt transfer of CO2 -rich air (previously stored) through water-free soil pores and cracks from the vadose zone to the atmosphere, under high-turbulence conditions. In dryland ecosystems, whose biological carbon exchanges are poorly characterized, it can strongly determine eddy-covariance CO2 fluxes that are used to validate remote sensing products and constrain models of gross primary productivity. Although subterranean ventilation episodes (VE) may occur in arid and semi-arid regions, which are unsung players in the global carbon cycle, little research has focused on the role of VE CO2 emissions in land-atmosphere CO2 exchange. This study shows clear empirical evidence of globally occurring VE. To identify VE, we used in situ quality-controlled eddy-covariance open data of carbon fluxes and ancillary variables from 145 sites in different open land covers (grassland, cropland, shrubland, savanna, and barren) across the globe. We selected the analyzed database from the FLUXNET2015, AmeriFlux, OzFlux, and AsiaFlux networks. To standardize the analysis, we designed an algorithm to detect CO2 emissions produced by VE at all sites considered in this study. Its main requirement is the presence of considerable and non-spurious correlation between the friction velocity (i.e., turbulence) and CO2 emissions. Of the sites analyzed, 34% exhibited the occurrence of VE. This vented CO2 emerged mainly from arid ecosystems (84%) and sites with hot and dry periods. Despite some limitations in data availability, this research demonstrates that VE-driven CO2 emissions occur globally. Future research should seek a better understanding of its drivers and the improvement of partitioning models, to reduce uncertainties in estimated biological CO2 exchanges and infer their contribution to the global net ecosystem carbon balance.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在过去的三十年中,陆地净生态系统生产力(NEP)有所增加,但其机制尚不清楚。我们分析了17年(2001-2017年)的NEP涡流协方差测量,芬兰南部北方针叶林的蒸散量(ET)以及光和水利用效率的趋势和年际变化(IAV)。森林是平均年碳汇(252[±42]gCm-2a-1),NEP以+6.4-7.0gCm-2a-1的速率增加(或大约在此期间+2.5%a-1)。这归因于总初级生产力的增加,并且在ET没有可检测到的变化的情况下发生。年碳吸收期开始提前0.7da-1,在主要生长季节之外,Gp和NEP的增加贡献了大约。年度趋势的三分之一和四分之一,分别。气象因素是通量IAV的原因,但不能解释长期趋势。在生长旺季期间,生长季节在光照充足的情况下,PPI趋势最强。使用多层生态系统模型,我们表明,当从叶片移动到生态系统时,直接的二氧化碳施肥效应会减弱,只有30-40%的观察到的生态系统3GPP增加可归因于CO2。叶面积指数(LAI)呈上升趋势,在2002年森林间伐的刺激下,是中轮作管理森林的Gp和NEP增强的主要驱动因素。它还补偿了随着CO2和LAI的增加,平均叶片气孔导度的降低,解释观察到的3GPP和CO2趋势之间的明显比例关系。结果强调,将趋势归因于他们的身体和生理驱动因素受到强大的IAV挑战,以及动态通量足迹导致的LAI和物种组成变化的不确定性。结果启发了北方地区陆地碳吸收增加的潜在机制。
    The terrestrial net ecosystem productivity (NEP) has increased during the past three decades, but the mechanisms responsible are still unclear. We analyzed 17 years (2001-2017) of eddy-covariance measurements of NEP, evapotranspiration (ET) and light and water use efficiency from a boreal coniferous forest in Southern Finland for trends and inter-annual variability (IAV). The forest was a mean annual carbon sink (252 [ ± 42] gC m - 2 a - 1 ), and NEP increased at rate +6.4-7.0 gC m - 2 a - 1 (or ca. +2.5% a - 1 ) during the period. This was attributed to the increasing gross-primary productivity GPP and occurred without detectable change in ET. The start of annual carbon uptake period was advanced by 0.7 d a - 1 , and increase in GPP and NEP outside the main growing season contributed ca. one-third and one-fourth of the annual trend, respectively. Meteorological factors were responsible for the IAV of fluxes but did not explain the long-term trends. The growing season GPP trend was strongest in ample light during the peak growing season. Using a multi-layer ecosystem model, we showed that direct CO 2 fertilization effect diminishes when moving from leaf to ecosystem, and only 30-40% of the observed ecosystem GPP increase could be attributed to CO 2 . The increasing trend in leaf-area index (LAI), stimulated by forest thinning in 2002, was the main driver of the enhanced GPP and NEP of the mid-rotation managed forest. It also compensated for the decrease of mean leaf stomatal conductance with increasing CO 2 and LAI, explaining the apparent proportionality between observed GPP and CO 2 trends. The results emphasize that attributing trends to their physical and physiological drivers is challenged by strong IAV, and uncertainty of LAI and species composition changes due to the dynamic flux footprint. The results enlighten the underlying mechanisms responsible for the increasing terrestrial carbon uptake in the boreal zone.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Accurate simulation of gross primary productivity (GPP) is essential for estimating the global carbon budget. However, GPP modeling is subject to various sources of uncertainties, among which the impacts of biases in climate forcing data have not been well quantified. Here, using a well-validated vegetation model, we compare site-level simulations using either ground-based meteorology or assimilated reanalyses to identify climate-driven uncertainties in the predicted GPP at 91 FLUXNET sites. Simulations yield the lowest root mean square errors (RMSE) in GPP relative to observations when all site-level meteorology and CO2 concentrations are used. Sensitivity tests conducted with Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis (MERRA) reanalyses increase GPP RMSE by 30%. Replacement of site-level CO2 with global annual average values provides limited contributions to these changes. In contrast, GPP uncertainties increase almost linearly with the biases in meteorology. Among all factors, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), especially diffuse PAR, plays dominant roles in modulating GPP uncertainties. Simulations using all MERRA forcings but with site-level diffuse PAR help reduce over 50% of the climate-driven biases in GPP. Our study reveals that biases in meteorological forcings, especially the variabilities at diurnal to seasonal time scales, can induce significant uncertainties in the simulated GPP at FLUXET sites. We suggest cautions in simulating global GPP using climate reanalyses for dynamic global vegetation models and urgent improvements in climatic variability in reanalyses data, especially for diffuse radiation.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Drought, a natural hydrometeorological phenomenon, has been more frequent and more widespread due to climate change. Water availability strongly regulates the coupling (or trade-off) between carbon uptake via photosynthesis and water loss through transpiration, known as water-use efficiency (WUE). Understanding the effects of drought on WUE across different vegetation types and along the wet to dry gradient is paramount to achieving better understanding of ecosystem functioning in response to climate change. We explored the physiological and environmental control on ecosystem WUE in response to drought using observations for 44 eddy covariance flux sites in the Northern Hemisphere. We quantified the response of WUE to drought and the relative contributions of gross primary production (GPP) and evapotranspiration (ET) to the variations of WUE. We also examined the control of physiological and environmental factors on monthly WUE under different moisture conditions. Cropland had a peak WUE value under moderate drought conditions, while grassland, deciduous broadleaf forest (DBF), evergreen broadleaf forest (EBF), and evergreen needleleaf forest (ENF) had peak WUE under slight drought conditions. WUE was mainly driven by GPP for cropland, grassland, DBF, and ENF but was mainly driven by ET for EBF. Vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and canopy conductance (Gc) were the most important factors regulating WUE. Moreover, WUE had negative responses to air temperature, precipitation, and VPD but had a positive response to Gc and ecosystem respiration. Our findings highlight the different effects of biotic and abiotic factors on WUE among different vegetation types and the important roles of VPD and Gc in controlling ecosystem WUE in response to drought.
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