BACKGROUND: DNA prediction of eye color represent one application of the externally visible characteristics (EVC), which attained growing interest in the field of DNA forensic phenotyping. This is mainly due to its ability to narrow the pool of suspects without the need to compare any retrieved DNA material from the crime scene to a reference DNA. Several methods and multiplex genetic panel were proposed with variable prediction accuracy between different populations. However, such panel was not previously tested in the Saudi population, nor any populations of the Middle East and North Africa origin.
METHODS: A panel of eleven single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) was tested for their association with three eye colors (brown, hazel, and intermediate) in 80 volunteer Saudi individuals. SNPs and haplotype association test with eye colors were performed to identify the top significant SNPs with the three eye colors. Also, multinomial logistic regression was used to construct the prediction model using a training set of 60 subjects, and a validation set of 20 subjects. The goodness of fit parameter of the model to correctly predicts each eye color as compared to the other was performed.
RESULTS: Eye color was significantly associated with rs12913832, rs7170852, and rs916977 that are located within HERC2. SNP rs12913832 was the top significant SNP (p-value = 1.78E-15) that accounted for the association in this region, as the other SNPs were not significant after adjusting for rs12913832. A prediction model containing five SNPs showed high prediction accuracy with Area Under the receiver operating characteristic Curves (AUC) equals to 0.95 and 0.83 for brown and intermediate eye colors, respectively. However, the model\'s performance was very low for predicting the hazel eye color with AUC equals 0.75.
CONCLUSIONS: Despite the small sample size of our study, we reported very significant SNP associations with eye color. Our model to predict eye colors based on DNA material showed high accuracy for brown and intermediate eye colors. The eye color prediction-model underperformed for the hazel eye colors, suggesting that larger sample size, as well as more comprehensive set of SNPs, could improve the model-prediction accuracy.

Forensic DNA phenotyping (FDP) has recently provided important advancements in forensic investigations, by predicting the physical appearance of a subject from a biological sample, using SNP markers. The majority of operable prediction models have been developed for iris color; however, replication studies to understand their applicability on a worldwide scale are still limited for many of them. In this work, 4 models for eye color prediction (IrisPlex, Ruiz, Allwood and Hart models) were systematically evaluated in a sample of 296 subjects of Italian origin. Genotypes were determined by a custom NGS-based panel targeting all the predictive SNPs included in the 4 tested models. Overall, 60-69% of the Italian sample could be correctly predicted with the IrisPlex, Ruiz and Allwood models, applying the recommended threshold. The IrisPlex model showed the lowest frequency of errors (17%), but also the highest number of inconclusive results (18%). In the absence of the threshold, the highest proportion of correct predictions was again obtained with the IrisPlex model (76%), followed by the Allwood (73%) and the Ruiz (65%) models. Lastly, the Hart predictive algorithm had the lowest error rate (2%), but the majority of predictions (87%) were restricted to the less informative categories of \"not-blue\" and \"not-brown\", and correct color predictions were obtained only for 11% of the sample. As observed in previous studies, the majority of incorrect and undefined predictions were ascribable to the intermediate category, which represented 25% of the Italian sample. An adjustment of the IrisPlex (multinomial logistic regression) and Ruiz models (Snipper Bayesian classifier) with Italian allele frequencies gave only minor improvements in predicting intermediate eye color and no remarkable overall changes in performance. This suggests an incomplete knowledge underlying the intermediate colors. Considering the impact of this phenotype in the Italian sample as well as in other admixed populations, future improvements of eye color prediction methods should include a better genetic and phenotypic characterization of this category.

DNA phenotyping research is one of the most emergent areas of forensic genetics. Predictions of externally visible characteristics are possible through analysis of single nucleotide polymorphisms. These tools can provide police with \"intelligence\" in cases where there are no obvious suspects and unknown biological samples found at the crime scene do not result in any criminal DNA database hits. IrisPlex, an eye color prediction assay, revealed high prediction rates for blue and brown eye color in European populations. However, this is less predictive in some non-European populations, probably due to admixing. When compared to other European countries, Portugal has a relatively admixed population, resulting from a genetic influx derived from its proximity to and historical relations with numerous African territories. The aim of this work was to evaluate the utility of IrisPlex in the Portuguese population. Furthermore, the possibility of supplementing this multiplex with additional markers to also achieve skin color prediction within this population was evaluated. For that, IrisPlex was augmented with additional SNP loci. Eye and skin color prediction was estimated using the multinomial logistic regression and binomial logistic regression models, respectively. The results demonstrated eye color prediction accuracies of the IrisPlex system of 90 and 60% for brown and blue eye color, respectively, and 77% for intermediate eye color, after allele frequency adjustment. With regard to skin color, it was possible to achieve a prediction accuracy of 93%. In the future, phenotypic determination multiplexes must include additional loci to permit skin color prediction as presented in this study as this can be an advantageous tool for forensic investigation.

DNA phenotyping is a rapidly developing area of research in forensic biology. Externally visible characteristics (EVCs) can be determined based on genotype data, specifically based on single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). These SNPs are chosen based on their association with genes related to the phenotypic expression of interest, with known examples in eye, hair, and skin color traits. DNA phenotyping has forensic importance when unknown biological samples at a crime scene do not result in a criminal database hit; a phenotypic profile of the sample can therefore be used to develop investigational leads. IrisPlex, an eye color prediction assay, has previously shown high prediction rates for blue and brown eye color in a Dutch European population. The objective of this work was to evaluate its utility in a North American population. We evaluated six SNPs included in the IrisPlex assay in population sample collected from a USA college campus. We used a quantitative method of eye color classification based on (RGB) color components of digital photographs of the eye taken from each study volunteer so that each eye was placed in one of three eye color categories: brown, intermediate, or blue. Objective color classification was shown to correlate with basic human visual determination making it a feasible option for use in future prediction assay development. Using these samples and various models, the maximum prediction accuracies of the IrisPlex system after allele frequency adjustment was 58% and 95% brown and blue eye color predictions, respectively, and 11% for intermediate eye colors. Future developments should include incorporation of additional informative SNPs, specifically related to the intermediate eye color, and we recommend the use of a Bayesian approach as a prediction model as likelihood ratios can be determined for reporting purposes.