■气候变化和环境污染对健康有已知影响。美国政府最近出台的降低通胀法案(IRA)包括遏制气候变化的资助举措,减少环境污染,根据国家自主贡献(NDC)计划(与2005年相比,到2030年温室气体[GHG]排放量减少40-50%)。目前尚不清楚IRA驱动的气候行动对实现NDC目标的预期心血管健康益处。
■我们使用了能源政策模拟器(EPS),一种基于系统动力学建模的模拟算法,估计各种能源政策的影响,模拟到2050年在美国实现NDC目标对健康结果的影响。我们进一步调查了到2050年种族对死亡率(绝对和相对)的影响。我们估计2022年至2050年之间的6种不良健康结果的预计减少:哮喘发作,非致命性心脏病发作,入院,呼吸道症状和支气管炎,丢失的工作日,和死亡。
■到2050年实现NDC目标将导致987,415避免哮喘发作,41,565避免了非致命性心脏病发作,18,993避免了入院,1,493,010避免了呼吸道症状和支气管炎,3,317,250避免了工作日的损失,和32,659人避免了死亡(22,839人在白人中,4993个黑人个体,2801亚洲人,和2026年其他/多种族个体)。到2050年,少数族裔群体在避免死亡方面有更高的相对变化(白人-0.74%,黑色-1.01%,亚洲-1.24%,和其他/多种族-1.75%)。同样,到2050年,与非西班牙裔/拉丁美洲人(-0.7%)相比,西班牙裔/拉丁美洲人的死亡人数相对减少(-1.4%)。
■IRA促进到2050年实现NDC温室气体减排目标将导致大量避免不良健康结果和死亡。预计到2050年,种族和少数民族的死亡人数相对减少幅度最大。本报告强调了无论政治分歧如何,持续进行气候行动投资的重要性。IRA这方面的认识可能对整体健康保护更为重要,除了降低药物成本。
UNASSIGNED: Climate change and environmental pollution have known health effects. The recently introduced inflation reduction act (IRA) by the United States government includes funding initiatives to curb climate change, and reduce environmental pollution, in line with the nationally determined contribution (NDC) plan (40-50 % reduction in greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions by 2030, as compared with 2005). The projected cardiovascular health benefits of the IRA driven climate actions to achieve the NDC goals are not known.
UNASSIGNED: We used the Energy Policy Simulator (EPS), a simulation algorithm based on systems dynamics modelling estimating the impact of various energy policies, to model the impact of achieving NDC targets in the United States on health outcomes by 2050. We further investigated race-specific impact on mortality (absolute and relative) by 2050.We estimated the projected reduction in six adverse health outcomes between 2022 and 2050: asthma attacks, non-fatal heart attacks, hospital admissions, respiratory symptoms and bronchitis, lost workdays, and deaths.
UNASSIGNED: Achievement of NDC targets by 2050 will result in 987,415 avoided asthma attacks, 41,565 avoided nonfatal heart attacks, 18,993 avoided hospital admissions, 1,493,010 avoided respiratory symptoms and bronchitis, 3,317,250 avoided lost workdays, and 32,659 avoided deaths (22,839 among white individuals, 4993 among Black individuals, 2801 among Asian individuals, and 2026 among other/multirace individuals). By 2050, minority racial groups had higher relative change in avoided deaths (white -0.74 %, Black -1.01 %, Asian -1.24 %, and other/multirace -1.75 %). Similarly, Hispanics/latinos higher relative reductions in deaths (-1.4 %) compared with non-Hispanic/Latinos (-0.7 %) by 2050.
UNASSIGNED: The IRA facilitated achievement of NDC GHG reduction goals by 2050 would result in substantial number of avoided adverse health outcomes and death. Racial and ethnic minorities are expected to have the largest relative reductions in deaths by 2050. The current report underscores the importance of continued climate action investment irrespective of political differences. The appreciation of this aspect of the IRA may be more important to overall preservation of health, beyond the reduction in medication costs.