Effective transfer entropy

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    市场之间的信息流动对于引导投资者和决策者进行资产的有效配置和积极的市场调控具有重要意义,分别。本研究使用每日美国金融压力指数(USFSI)和其他发达经济体金融压力指数(OAEFSI)代替全球金融压力指数,研究了全球金融市场压力对非洲股票市场的信息流的影响。要了解各种投资视野中的信息流动态,采用基于集成经验模态分解(EEMD)的传递熵。我们的发现表明,非洲股票市场对全球金融市场压力造成的信息流风险很高。然而,我们根据短期加纳和埃及以及坦桑尼亚的市场状况确定多元化前景,科特迪瓦,从中期来看,埃及。实证结果还表明,从全球金融压力到非洲股票市场的信息流取决于时间尺度,经济关系,以及全球金融市场的状况。这些发现对投资者来说很重要,投资组合经理,从业者,和政策制定者。
    The flow of information between markets is important to guide investors and policymakers in the effective allocation of assets and proactive market regulation, respectively. This study examines the impact of information flow from global financial market stress on the African stock markets using the daily US financial stress index (USFSI) and other advanced economies\' financial stress index (OAEFSI) to proxy the global financial stress index. To understand the information flow dynamics across various investment horizons, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD)-based transfer entropy is employed. Our findings reveal that African equity markets are highly risky for information flow from global financial market stress. However, we identify diversification prospects based on market conditions for Ghana and Egypt in the short term and Tanzania, Cote D\'Ivoire, and Egypt in the medium term. Empirical results also show that the information flow from global financial stress to African stock markets depends on time scales, economic relations, and the state of global financial markets. The findings are important for investors, portfolio managers, practitioners, and policymakers.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    金融经济研究大量记载了这样一个事实,即负面消息的到来对股价的影响比正面消息的到来更为强烈。本研究的作者采用了一种基于两种人工智能算法的创新方法来测试这种不对称响应效果。方法:第一个算法用于网络抓取社交网络Twitter,以下载过去十年来世界上24家市值最大的上市公司的顶级推文。然后使用第二种算法来分析推文的内容,将这些信息转换为社会情绪指数,并为每个被考虑的公司建立时间序列。在使用转移熵将社会情绪指数的走势与单个公司的每日收盘价进行比较之后,我们的估计证实,负面和正面消息对每日股价的影响强度在统计上是不同的,以及负面消息影响股价的强度大于正面消息的强度。结果支持非对称效应的观点,即负面情绪比正面情绪具有更大的影响,这些结果得到了EGARCH模型的证实。
    Financial economic research has extensively documented the fact that the impact of the arrival of negative news on stock prices is more intense than that of the arrival of positive news. The authors of the present study followed an innovative approach based on the utilization of two artificial intelligence algorithms to test that asymmetric response effect. Methods: The first algorithm was used to web-scrape the social network Twitter to download the top tweets of the 24 largest market-capitalized publicly traded companies in the world during the last decade. A second algorithm was then used to analyze the contents of the tweets, converting that information into social sentiment indexes and building a time series for each considered company. After comparing the social sentiment indexes\' movements with the daily closing stock price of individual companies using transfer entropy, our estimations confirmed that the intensity of the impact of negative and positive news on the daily stock prices is statistically different, as well as that the intensity with which negative news affects stock prices is greater than that of positive news. The results support the idea of the asymmetric effect that negative sentiment has a greater effect than positive sentiment, and these results were confirmed with the EGARCH model.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    This paper applies effective transfer entropy to research the information transfer in the Chinese stock market around its crash in 2015. According to the market states, the entire period is divided into four sub-phases: the tranquil, bull, crash, and post-crash periods. Kernel density estimation is used to calculate the effective transfer entropy. Then, the information transfer network is constructed. Nodes\' centralities and the directed maximum spanning trees of the networks are analyzed. The results show that, in the tranquil period, the information transfer is weak in the market. In the bull period, the strength and scope of the information transfer increases. The utility sector outputs a great deal of information and is the hub node for the information flow. In the crash period, the information transfer grows further. The market efficiency in this period is worse than that in the other three sub-periods. The information technology sector is the biggest information source, while the consumer staples sector receives the most information. The interactions of the sectors become more direct. In the post-crash period, information transfer declines but is still stronger than the tranquil time. The financial sector receives the largest amount of information and is the pivot node.
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