Economic Recession

经济衰退
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    沙门氏菌相关的食源性疾病是一个重大的公共卫生问题,人类感染的主要来源是动物食品,尤其是鸡肉。黎巴嫩目前正经历着双重危机:COVID-19大流行和前所未有的经济危机,这对公共卫生系统和食品安全造成了重大挑战。这项研究旨在评估在这种双重危机期间在黎巴嫩北部出售的生禽肉中沙门氏菌的患病率和抗生素耐药性。在2021年5月至2022年4月之间,对黎巴嫩北部的六个不同地区进行了横断面研究。总共288个整体,对未加工的鸡进行了检查。根据培养和生化特性对沙门氏菌进行分离和鉴定。对所有分离物进行抗微生物药敏试验和表型测定以检测超广谱β-内酰胺酶(ESBL)。在黎巴嫩北部购买的生禽肉中沙门氏菌的患病率达到18.05%(52/288)。旱季和冷藏鸡肉与沙门氏菌污染风险增加显著相关(P<0.05)。此外,34.61%的分离物是潜在的ESBL生产者,57.69%表现为多药耐药(MDR)。这项研究强调了黎巴嫩北部鸡肉中MDR的存在,如果食用未煮熟的鸡肉,会造成潜在的健康风险。这强调了在整个食物链中实施预防策略和卫生程序以降低沙门氏菌风险的重要性。鸡肉中的污染及其对人类的潜在传播。
    Salmonella-related foodborne illness is a significant public health concern, with the primary source of human infection being animal-based food products, particularly chicken meat. Lebanon is currently experiencing a dual crisis: the COVID-19 pandemic and an unprecedented economic crisis, which has resulted in substantial challenges to the public health system and food safety. This study aims to assess the prevalence and antibiotic resistance profile of Salmonella in raw poultry meat sold in North Lebanon during this dual crisis. A cross-sectional study was carried out between May 2021 and April 2022 across six different districts in North Lebanon. A total of 288 whole, unprocessed chickens were examined. The isolation and identification of Salmonella isolates were done based on cultural and biochemical properties. All isolates were subjected to antimicrobial susceptibility testing and phenotypic assays for Extended-Spectrum Beta-lactamase (ESBL) detection. The prevalence of Salmonella in raw poultry meat purchased in North Lebanon reached 18.05 % (52/288). The dry season and chilled chicken were significantly associated with an increased risk of Salmonella contamination (P < 0.05). Additionally, 34.61 % of the isolates were potential ESBL producers, and 57.69 % exhibited multidrug resistance (MDR). This study highlights the existence of MDR in chicken meat in North Lebanon, posing a potential health risk if undercooked chicken meat is consumed. This emphasizes the importance of the implementation of preventive strategies and hygienic procedures throughout the food chain to reduce the risk of Salmonella spp. contamination in chicken meats and its potential transmission to humans.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    2008年世界危机之后,有人认为经济复苏还不够充分。在这种情况下,在过去的十年中,关于滞后,特别是投资滞后的争论有所增加。这项研究的目的是分析土耳其经济中的投资滞后和滞后的基本动态。结构断裂测试用于识别滞后。传统和非对称因果关系检验用于识别滞后的基本动力学。投资,GDP,利率,和生产率变量用于分析投资滞后。对变量进行了结构断裂测试,而传统的和不对称的因果关系检验适用于投资及其决定因素之间。结构断裂试验证明了滞后性的存在。根据格兰杰因果关系检验,利率没有因果关系,GDP和生产率对投资的影响。利率对投资没有影响的事实证明了滞后性。根据不对称因果关系检验,利率和投资之间没有关系。GDP和投资之间存在反向关系。生产率和投资之间存在不对称关系。生产率冲击对投资造成不对称影响的事实使生产率冲击成为滞后的主要动力。此外,有大量证据表明,全要素生产率的强滞后性和高不确定性加剧了投资滞后性。因此,在制定滞后政策时应考虑生产率冲击。
    After the 2008 World Crisis, there is a view that the economic recovery has not been adequate. In this context, the debate on hysteresis and especially investment hysteresis has increased in the last decade. The aim of this study is to analyze the investment hysteresis and the basic dynamics of hysteresis in the Turkish economy. Structural break tests are used to identify hysteresis. Traditional and asymmetric causality tests are used to identify the fundamental dynamics of hysteresis. Investment, GDP, interest rate, and productivity variables are used to analyze investment hysteresis. Structural break tests were applied to the variables, while conventional and asymmetric causality tests were applied between investments and their determinants. Structural break tests prove the existence of hysteresis. According to the Granger causality test, there is no causality from interest rates, GDP and productivity to investments. The fact that interest rates have no effect on investments proves hysteresis. According to the asymmetric causality test, there is no relationship between interest rates and investments. There is an inverse relationship between GDP and investments. There is an asymmetric relationship between productivity and investments. The fact that productivity shocks cause asymmetric effects on investments makes productivity shocks the main dynamic of hysteresis. In addition, there is considerable evidence that the strong hysteresis and high uncertainty of TFP exacerbate investment hysteresis. Therefore, productivity shocks should be taken into account in policymaking for hysteresis.
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  • 文章类型: English Abstract
    Information on how economic fluctuations affect educational inequalities in homicides in Latin America is scarce. This study aimed to: (a) analyze the temporal variations of educational inequalities related to homicide mortality and (b) compare these inequalities between years of economic growth and recession in southern South America cities from 2000 to 2019. Data from seven urban areas in three countries in the Southern Cone of South America were used: Mendoza and Rosario (Argentina); Belo Horizonte, Curitiba, Rio de Janeiro, and São Paulo (Brazil); and Santiago (Chile). Poisson models were estimated by using age, sex, city of residence, year of economic growth or recession, and schooling level as explanatory variables. Results showed significant differences in the temporal evolution of homicide rates in the seven cities, although populations with a low schooling level always showed the most vulnerability. The four Brazilian cities, analyzed together, showed greater educational inequalities related to homicides in years of economic recession when compared to those of economic growth. On the one hand, the indiscriminate use of force by the State against criminal groups seems to increase social inequality in homicide mortality. On the other hand, criminal fragmentation and economic crisis can exacerbate these inequalities by increasing territorial disputes between criminal groups.
    Se sabe poco sobre cómo las fluctuaciones económicas afectan las desigualdades educativas en homicidios en países latinoamericanos. Los objetivos de este estudio fueron (a) analizar las variaciones temporales de las desigualdades relativas educacionales de la mortalidad por homicidio, y (b) comparar estas desigualdades entre años de crecimiento económico y años de recesión en ciudades del sur sudamericano durante el período 2000-2019. Se utilizaron datos de siete áreas urbanas, en tres países del Cono Sur Sudamericano: Mendoza y Rosario (Argentina); Belo Horizonte, Curitiba, Rio de Janeiro y São Paulo (Brasil); y Santiago (Chile). Se estimaron modelos de Poisson, utilizando como variables explicativas la edad, sexo, año, ciudad de residencia, año de expansión o recesión económica y nivel educativo. Encontramos diferencias marcadas en la evolución temporal de las tasas de homicidio entre las siete ciudades, aunque siempre las poblaciones de nivel educativo bajo fueron las más vulnerables. Las cuatro ciudades de Brasil, analizadas en conjunto, tuvieron desigualdades educativas relativas de homicidios mayores en años de recesión económica, con respecto a años de crecimiento económico. Por un lado, el uso de la fuerza indiscriminado por parte del Estado enfocado hacia grupos criminales parece haber llevado a una creciente desigualdad social de la mortalidad por homicidio. Por el otro, en un contexto de fragmentación criminal y crisis económica se podrían agravar estas desigualdades a través de mayores disputas territoriales entre grupos criminales.
    São escassas as informações sobre como as flutuações econômicas afetam as desigualdades educacionais em homicídios na América Latina. Os objetivos deste estudo foram: (a) analisar as variações temporais das desigualdades educacionais relacionadas à mortalidade por homicídio, e (b) comparar essas desigualdades entre os anos de crescimento econômico e os anos de recessão nas cidades do sul da América do Sul no período de 2000 a 2019. Foram utilizados dados de sete áreas urbanas, em três países do Cone Sul da América do Sul: Mendoza e Rosário (Argentina); Belo Horizonte, Curitiba, Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo (Brasil); e Santiago (Chile). Os modelos de Poisson foram estimados utilizando como variáveis explicativas a idade, sexo, ano, cidade de residência, ano de expansão ou recessão econômica e nível de escolaridade. Os resultados mostraram diferenças significativas na evolução temporal das taxas de homicídio entre as sete cidades, apesar de que as populações com baixo nível de escolaridade sempre foram as mais vulneráveis. As quatro cidades brasileiras, analisadas em conjunto, apresentaram maiores desigualdades educacionais relacionadas a homicídios em anos de recessão econômica em relação aos anos de crescimento econômico. Por um lado, o uso indiscriminado da força pelo Estado contra grupos criminosos parece ter levado ao aumento da desigualdade social na mortalidade por homicídio. Por outro lado, em um contexto de fragmentação criminal e crise econômica, essas desigualdades podem ser exacerbadas pelo aumento das disputas territoriais entre grupos criminosos.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:本研究调查了经济危机期间医学生的心理困扰和睡眠不良的患病率及其关联的证据。
    方法:这是一项使用在线问卷的横断面研究。它包括抑郁焦虑压力量表和匹兹堡睡眠质量指数(PSQI)。
    方法:本研究包括斯里兰卡一所大城市大学的医学本科生。
    方法:我们评估了心理困扰的患病率,睡眠质量,以及与心理困扰相关的因素。要评估关联,我们使用逻辑回归。
    结果:大多数(69.2%)有某种形式的痛苦(抑郁症,焦虑或压力),而23%的人在这三个人中都有痛苦。焦虑最为普遍(50.7%)。41%的人报告睡眠质量差。对全球PSQI的贡献最大的是睡眠延迟,持续时间,和日间功能障碍分量表。在双变量分析中,睡眠质量与抑郁直接相关(t245.65=-6.75,p<0.001)。,焦虑(t313.45=-6.45,p<0.001),和应力(t94.22=-5.14,p<0.001)。在多项逻辑回归模型中,睡眠质量与抑郁独立相关,焦虑和压力。此外,与朋友的频繁接触与抑郁和焦虑呈负相关。此外,社交媒体的使用与抑郁成反比,焦虑和压力。临床学生的抑郁和焦虑低于非临床学生。从事正念活动与抑郁症呈负相关。然而,模型仅解释了适度的方差(抑郁症的NagelkerkeR平方值分别为0.21、0.18和0.13,焦虑和压力,分别)。
    结论:大学生睡眠质量差和心理困扰高。研究结果强调了解决医学本科生睡眠质量和心理健康的重要性。需要进一步研究更大,更多样化的样本,以更全面地了解与大学生心理困扰相关的因素。
    OBJECTIVE: This study examined the evidence of the prevalence of psychological distress and poor sleep among medical students and its associations during an economic crisis.
    METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study using an online questionnaire. It included the Depression Anxiety Stress Scales and Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index (PSQI).
    METHODS: This study included medical undergraduates from a large metropolitan university in Sri Lanka.
    METHODS: We assessed the prevalence of psychological distress, sleep quality, and factors associated with psychological distress. To evaluate the associations, we used logistic regression.
    RESULTS: The majority (69.2%) had some form of distress (depression, anxiety or stress), while 23% had distress in all three. Anxiety was the most prevalent (50.7%). Poor sleep quality was reported in 41%. The highest contribution to global PSQI was from sleep latency, duration, and daytime dysfunction subscales. In bivariate analysis, sleep quality was directly related to depression (t245.65 = -6.75, p<0.001)., anxiety (t313.45 = -6.45, p <0.001), and stress (t94.22 = -5.14, p <0.001). In multinomial logistic regression models, sleep quality was independently associated with depression, anxiety and stress. In addition, frequent contact with friends was inversely associated with depression and anxiety. Also, social media use was inversely linked to depression, anxiety and stress. Clinical-year students had lower depression and anxiety than non-clinical students. Engaging in mindfulness activities was inversely associated with depression. However, models explained only a moderate amount of variance (Nagelkerke R-squared values were 0.21, 0.18, and 0.13 for depression, anxiety and stress, respectively).
    CONCLUSIONS: Poor sleep quality and psychological distress are high among the undergraduates. The findings emphasize the importance of addressing sleep quality and psychological wellbeing in medical undergraduates. Further research with larger and more diverse samples is needed for a more comprehensive understanding of the factors associated with psychological distress among undergraduates.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本研究旨在确定远程工作的优点和缺点及其相关性,包括健康问题,在持有大学学位的黎巴嫩工人中。在2022年10月至2023年3月期间,在GoogleForms上创建了基于网络的横截面自我报告问卷,通过滚雪球抽样对230名参与者进行了调查。大多数受访者认识到远程办公的优点(67.03%)和缺点(66.34%),暗示对这种格式的复杂感受。尽管对远程工作的满意度有限,受访者承认与远程工作相关的优势;特别是,年轻,体力活动较少,受过更多教育的参与者比同行更重视远程工作。对远程工作的优点和缺点的平均看法并没有随着参与者的工作状态而显著变化(混合,在线,和亲自)。研究显示,持续睡眠困难的患病率很高(35.7%)。有限的定期体力活动(60.4%),与工作有关的肌肉骨骼疾病(48.7%),背痛(5.7%),黎巴嫩工人的视觉障碍(48%)。尽管对远程工作的满意度有限,受访者承认节省成本和时间等优势。年长的工人表现出了对远程办公的偏好,可能是由于它对福祉的影响。教育等因素,职业满意度,以前的远程工作经验影响了个人对远程工作好处的看法。
    This study aimed to identify the perceived advantages and drawbacks of teleworking and their correlates, including health problems, among Lebanese workers holding a university degree. A web-based cross-sectional self-report questionnaire created on Google Forms was used to survey 230 participants through snowball sampling between October 2022 and March 2023. The majority of respondents recognized both the advantages (67.03%) and drawbacks (66.34%) associated with teleworking, suggesting mixed feelings toward this format. Despite the limited satisfaction with teleworking, respondents acknowledged the advantages associated with remote working; in particular, younger, less physically active, and more educated participants valued teleworking more than their counterparts. The mean perception of advantages and drawbacks of telework did not significantly change with participants\' work status (hybrid, online, and in-person). The study revealed a high prevalence of consistent sleeping difficulty (35.7%), limited regular physical activity (60.4%), work-related musculoskeletal disorders (48.7%), back pain (5.7%), and visual disorders (48%) among Lebanese workers. Despite the limited satisfaction with teleworking, respondents acknowledged advantages such as cost and time savings. Older workers showed a preference against teleworking, potentially due to its impact on well-being. Factors such as education, career satisfaction, and prior teleworking experience influenced individuals\' perceptions of telework benefits.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:2008年开始的经济危机严重影响了南部(希腊,意大利,葡萄牙,西班牙)西欧(SWE)国家和西欧(WE),可能影响了正在进行的消除病毒性肝炎的努力。本研究旨在调查经济危机对HBV和HCV疾病负担的影响。
    方法:全球疾病负担2019年数据用于分析SWE和WE中HBV和HCV急性和慢性感染的流行病学指标率。进行时间序列建模以量化医疗支出对2000-2019年HBV和HCV疾病负担的时间趋势的影响。
    结果:在SWE和WE中观察到急性HBV(aHBV)和慢性HBV的发病率和患病率下降趋势,在紧缩后时期(2010-2019年)下降速度较慢,由于HBV在SWE中稳定下来。急性HCV(aHCV)指标和慢性HCV发病率和死亡率在SWE和WE中显示出稳定的趋势,而慢性HCV的患病率呈现振荡趋势,2010-2019年WE下降(p<0.001)。由于两种肝炎感染引起的肝癌随着时间的推移显示出停滞的负担。观察到健康支出与急性和慢性HBV和HCV指标之间的负相关。
    结论:HBV和HCV的流行病学指标显示,在紧缩后时期,HBV的改善速度较慢,由于两种肝炎感染,死亡率稳定和肝癌负担停滞。2008年的经济危机对乙型肝炎和丙型肝炎的负担产生了负面影响。到2030年消除HBV和HCV将是SWE国家的主要挑战。
    BACKGROUND: The economic crisis that began in 2008 has severely affected Southern (Greece, Italy, Portugal, Spain) Western European (SWE) countries of Western Europe (WE) and may have affected ongoing efforts to eliminate viral hepatitis. This study was conducted to investigate the impact of the economic crisis on the burden of HBV and HCV disease.
    METHODS: Global Burden of Diseases 2019 data were used to analyse the rates of epidemiological metrics of HBV and HCV acute and chronic infections in SWE and WE. Time series modelling was performed to quantify the impact of healthcare expenditure on the time trend of HBV and HCV disease burden in 2000-2019.
    RESULTS: Declining trends in incidence and prevalence rates of acute HBV (aHBV) and chronic HBV were observed in SWE and WE, with the pace of decline being slower in the post-austerity period (2010-2019) and mortality due to HBV stabilised in SWE. Acute HCV (aHCV) metrics and chronic HCV incidence and mortality showed a stable trend in SWE and WE, whereas the prevalence of chronic HCV showed an oscillating trend, decreasing in WE in 2010-2019 (p < 0.001). Liver cancer due to both hepatitis infections showed a stagnant burden over time. An inverse association was observed between health expenditure and metrics of both acute and chronic HBV and HCV.
    CONCLUSIONS: Epidemiological metrics for HBV and HCV showed a slower pace of decline in the post-austerity period with better improvement for HBV, a stabilisation of mortality and a stagnant burden for liver cancer due to both hepatitis infections. The economic crisis of 2008 had a negative impact on the burden of hepatitis B and C. Elimination of HBV and HCV by 2030 will be a major challenge in the SWE countries.
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  • 文章类型: Editorial
    暂无摘要。
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    医疗保健就业是否可以衰退?我们研究了长期的假设,即医疗保健就业在整个商业周期中是稳定的。在研究医疗保健就业如何应对衰退时,我们明确区分了负总需求和供应冲击,并表明这种反应在很大程度上取决于引发衰退的外生冲击的类型。首先,总体医疗保健就业在需求引起的衰退期间呈顺周期反应,但在供给引起的衰退期间保持稳定。第二,在需求引发的衰退期间,医疗保健利用率大幅下降,解释了这些时期医疗保健就业的下降。最后,医疗保健子行业的就业反应存在显著的异质性。虽然大多数子行业的医疗保健就业在由负面需求和供应冲击引起的衰退期间都会产生顺周期反应,它在护理主导部门反周期地作出反应。重要的是,通过将负面总需求冲击与供应冲击对医疗保健就业的衰退影响隔离开来,我们提供了新的经验证据,表明医疗保健就业,总的来说,不能抵御衰退。
    Is healthcare employment recession-proof? We examine the long-standing hypothesis that healthcare employment is stable across the business cycle. We explicitly distinguish between negative aggregate demand and supply shocks in studying how healthcare employment responds to recessions, and show that this response depends largely on the type of the exogenous shock triggering the recession. First, aggregate healthcare employment responds procyclically during demand-induced recessions but remains stable during supply-induced recessions. Second, healthcare utilization drops significantly during demand-induced recessions, explaining the decline in healthcare employment during these periods. Finally, there is significant heterogeneity in the employment responses of the healthcare sub-sectors. While healthcare employment in most sub-sectors responds procyclically during recessions caused by both negative demand and supply shocks, it responds countercyclically in nursing-dominant sectors. Importantly, by isolating the recessionary impact of negative aggregate demand shocks from supply shocks on healthcare employment, we provide new empirical evidence that healthcare employment, in general, is not recession-proof.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    这项研究调查了紧缩措施对2003年至2018年意大利各地区死亡率的影响。自2007年以来,经历大量医疗保健财政赤字的地区已被要求实施复苏计划(RP)。我们使用最近的差异交错匹配估计器来评估这种紧缩政策对市政级每月死亡率的影响。这使得我们能够评估政策在处理过的城市之间的空间异质性,说明他们离最近医院的距离.分析显示紧缩措施对健康有重大负面影响,特别是在周边地区和弱势群体中。在RPs下的地区死亡率较高,随着与医院距离的增加,这种影响也在升级。这项政策的影响在弱势群体中也更加明显,观察到性别之间和不同季节之间的差异。
    This study examines the impact of austerity measures on mortality rates across Italian regions from 2003 to 2018. Since 2007, regions experiencing substantial healthcare financial deficits have been required to implement recovery plans (RPs). We use a recent difference-in-differences staggered matching estimator to assess the effects of this austerity policy on municipal-level monthly mortality rates. This allows us to evaluate the policy\'s spatial heterogeneity across treated municipalities, accounting for their distance from the nearest hospital. The analysis reveals a significant negative impact of austerity measures on health, particularly in peripheral areas and among vulnerable populations. Mortality rates are higher in regions under RPs, with this effect escalating with increasing distance from hospitals. The policy\'s impact is also more pronounced among vulnerable populations, with differences observed between genders and across seasons.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目标:减少政府在医疗保健系统中的支出,寻找新资金来源的困难和人均可支配收入的减少是过去十年希腊医疗保健系统最重要的问题。因此,研究健康结构的盈利能力是决定其偿付能力和企业可持续性的关键因素。这项研究的目的是调查经济流动性的影响,2016-2018年期间希腊综合医院(GHs)的债务和业务规模对盈利能力的影响。
    方法:84家综合医院(GHs)的财务报表(资产负债表和损益表),52个公共和32个私人,为期三年(2016-2018年),进行了分析。在两个样品上进行Spearman的Rs相关性。
    结果:结果表明,所调查的决定因素(流动性,规模)和公共和私人GHs的盈利能力。还表明,债务仅对私人GHs的盈利能力有负面影响。
    结论:通过扩大私人医疗保险和在公立医院采用现代财务管理技术等干预措施来增加私立医院的营业额,将对盈利能力和有限资源的有效利用产生积极影响。
    结论:这些结果,结合民营医院盈利能力低和公立医院流动性过剩的调查结果,可以塑造适当的框架来指导医院管理者和政府决策者。
    OBJECTIVE: The reduction of government expenditure in the healthcare system, the difficulty of finding new sources of funding and the reduction in disposable income per capita are the most important problems of the healthcare system in Greece over the last decade. Therefore, studying the profitability of health structures is a crucial factor in making decisions about their solvency and corporate sustainability. The aim of this study is to investigate the effect of economic liquidity, debt and business size on profitability for the Greek general hospitals (GHs) during the period 2016-2018.
    METHODS: Financial statements (balance sheets and income statements) of 84 general hospitals (GHs), 52 public and 32 private, over a three-year period (2016-2018), were analyzed. Spearman\'s Rs correlation was carried out on two samples.
    RESULTS: The results revealed that there is a positive relationship between the investigated determinants (liquidity, size) and profitability for both public and private GHs. It was also shown that debt has a negative effect on profitability only for private GHs.
    CONCLUSIONS: Increasing the turnover of private hospitals through interventions such as expanding private health insurance and adopting modern financial management techniques in public hospitals would have a positive effect both on profitability and the efficient use of limited resources.
    CONCLUSIONS: These results, in conjunction with the findings of the low profitability of private hospitals and the excess liquidity of public hospitals, can shape the appropriate framework to guide hospital administrators and government policymakers.
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