UNASSIGNED: Fetal growth restriction is associated with perinatal morbidity and mortality. Early identification of women having at-risk fetuses can reduce perinatal adverse outcomes.
UNASSIGNED: To assess the predictive performance of existing models predicting fetal growth restriction and birthweight, and if needed, to develop and validate new multivariable models using individual participant data.
UNASSIGNED: Individual participant data meta-analyses of cohorts in International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications network, decision curve analysis and health economics analysis.
UNASSIGNED: Pregnant women at booking. External validation of existing models (9 cohorts, 441,415 pregnancies); International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications model development and validation (4 cohorts, 237,228 pregnancies).
UNASSIGNED: Maternal clinical characteristics, biochemical and ultrasound markers.
UNASSIGNED: fetal growth restriction defined as birthweight <10th centile adjusted for gestational age and with stillbirth, neonatal death or delivery before 32 weeks\' gestation birthweight.
UNASSIGNED: First, we externally validated existing models using individual participant data meta-analysis. If needed, we developed and validated new International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications models using random-intercept regression models with backward elimination for variable selection and undertook internal-external cross-validation. We estimated the study-specific performance (c-statistic, calibration slope, calibration-in-the-large) for each model and pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was quantified using τ2 and 95% prediction intervals. We assessed the clinical utility of the fetal growth restriction model using decision curve analysis, and health economics analysis based on National Institute for Health and Care Excellence 2008 model.
UNASSIGNED: Of the 119 published models, one birthweight model (Poon) could be validated. None reported fetal growth restriction using our definition. Across all cohorts, the Poon model had good summary calibration slope of 0.93 (95% confidence interval 0.90 to 0.96) with slight overfitting, and underpredicted birthweight by 90.4 g on average (95% confidence interval 37.9 g to 142.9 g). The newly developed International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications-fetal growth restriction model included maternal age, height, parity, smoking status, ethnicity, and any history of hypertension, pre-eclampsia, previous stillbirth or small for gestational age baby and gestational age at delivery. This allowed predictions conditional on a range of assumed gestational ages at delivery. The pooled apparent c-statistic and calibration were 0.96 (95% confidence interval 0.51 to 1.0), and 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.67 to 1.23), respectively. The model showed positive net benefit for predicted probability thresholds between 1% and 90%. In addition to the predictors in the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications-fetal growth restriction model, the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications-birthweight model included maternal weight, history of diabetes and mode of conception. Average calibration slope across cohorts in the internal-external cross-validation was 1.00 (95% confidence interval 0.78 to 1.23) with no evidence of overfitting. Birthweight was underestimated by 9.7 g on average (95% confidence interval -154.3 g to 173.8 g).
UNASSIGNED: We could not externally validate most of the published models due to variations in the definitions of outcomes. Internal-external cross-validation of our International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications-fetal growth restriction model was limited by the paucity of events in the included cohorts. The economic evaluation using the published National Institute for Health and Care Excellence 2008 model may not reflect current practice, and full economic evaluation was not possible due to paucity of data.
UNASSIGNED: International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications models\' performance needs to be assessed in routine practice, and their impact on decision-making and clinical outcomes needs evaluation.
UNASSIGNED: The International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications-fetal growth restriction and International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications-birthweight models accurately predict fetal growth restriction and birthweight for various assumed gestational ages at delivery. These can be used to stratify the risk status at booking, plan monitoring and management.
UNASSIGNED: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019135045.
UNASSIGNED: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 17/148/07) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 14. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.
One in ten babies is born small for their age. A third of such small babies are considered to be ‘growth-restricted’ as they have complications such as dying in the womb (stillbirth) or after birth (newborn death), cerebral palsy, or needing long stays in hospital. When growth restriction is suspected in fetuses, they are closely monitored and often delivered early to avoid complications. Hence, it is important that we identify growth-restricted babies early to plan care. Our goal was to provide personalised and accurate estimates of the mother’s chances of having a growth-restricted baby and predict the baby’s weight if delivered at various time points in pregnancy. To do so, first we tested how accurate existing risk calculators (‘prediction models’) were in predicting growth restriction and birthweight. We then developed new risk-calculators and studied their clinical and economic benefits. We did so by accessing the data from individual pregnant women and their babies in our large database library (International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications). Published risk-calculators had various definitions of growth restriction and none predicted the chances of having a growth-restricted baby using our definition. One predicted baby’s birthweight. This risk-calculator performed well, but underpredicted the birthweight by up to 143 g. We developed two new risk-calculators to predict growth-restricted babies (International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications-fetal growth restriction) and birthweight (International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications-birthweight). Both calculators accurately predicted the chances of the baby being born with growth restriction, and its birthweight. The birthweight was underpredicted by <9.7 g. The calculators performed well in both mothers predicted to be low and high risk. Further research is needed to determine the impact of using these calculators in practice, and challenges to implementing them in practice. Both International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications-fetal growth restriction and International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications-birthweight risk calculators will inform healthcare professionals and empower parents make informed decisions on monitoring and timing of delivery.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to evaluate the cost effectiveness of genetic and genomic testing strategies for the diagnosis of rare developmental disorders in NHS Scotland.
METHODS: Six genetic and genomic testing strategies were evaluated using a decision tree model. First-line, second-line and last-resort trio genome sequencing (GS), and second-line and last-resort trio exome sequencing (ES) were compared with standard genetic testing. The cost effectiveness of each strategy was expressed in terms of incremental cost per additional diagnosis. The impact of uncertainty on cost-effectiveness results was explored using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.
RESULTS: 2nd-line ES was a cost-saving option, increasing diagnostic yield by 13.9% and decreasing cost by £1027 per trio compared to standard genetic testing. Compared to ES, strategies involving GS increased costs significantly, with only a moderate or zero improvement in diagnostic yield. Sensitivity analysis indicated that significant reductions in cost or improvements in diagnostic yield are required before 1st-line GS becomes cost effective.
CONCLUSIONS: 2nd-line ES (after chromosomal microarray; replacing gene panel testing) for the diagnosis of developmental disorders is a cost-saving option for the Scottish NHS. Ongoing economic evaluation is required to monitor the evolving cost and diagnostic yield of GS and ES over time.

UNASSIGNED: Low levels of testosterone cause male hypogonadism, which is associated with sexual dysfunction, tiredness and reduced muscle strength and quality of life. Testosterone replacement therapy is commonly used for ameliorating symptoms of male hypogonadism, but there is uncertainty about the magnitude of its effects and its cardiovascular and cerebrovascular safety.
UNASSIGNED: The primary aim was to evaluate the safety of testosterone replacement therapy. We also assessed the clinical and cost-effectiveness of testosterone replacement therapy for men with male hypogonadism, and the existing qualitative evidence on men\'s experience and acceptability of testosterone replacement therapy.
UNASSIGNED: Evidence synthesis and individual participant data meta-analysis of effectiveness and safety, qualitative evidence synthesis and model-based cost-utility analysis.
UNASSIGNED: Major electronic databases were searched from 1992 to February 2021 and were restricted to English-language publications.
UNASSIGNED: We conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis of individual participant data according to current methodological standards. Evidence was considered from placebo-controlled randomised controlled trials assessing the effects of any formulation of testosterone replacement therapy in men with male hypogonadism. Primary outcomes were mortality and cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events. Data were extracted by one reviewer and cross-checked by a second reviewer. The risk of bias was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. We performed one-stage meta-analyses using the acquired individual participant data and two-stage meta-analyses to integrate the individual participant data with data extracted from eligible studies that did not provide individual participant data. A decision-analytic Markov model was developed to evaluate the cost per quality-adjusted life-years of the use of testosterone replacement therapy in cohorts of patients of different starting ages.
UNASSIGNED: We identified 35 trials (5601 randomised participants). Of these, 17 trials (3431 participants) provided individual participant data. There were too few deaths to assess mortality. There was no difference between the testosterone replacement therapy group (120/1601, 7.5%) and placebo group (110/1519, 7.2%) in the incidence of cardiovascular and/or cerebrovascular events (13 studies, odds ratio 1.07, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 1.42; p = 0.62). Testosterone replacement therapy improved quality of life and sexual function in almost all patient subgroups. In the testosterone replacement therapy group, serum testosterone was higher while serum cholesterol, triglycerides, haemoglobin and haematocrit were all lower. We identified several themes from five qualitative studies showing how symptoms of low testosterone affect men\'s lives and their experience of treatment. The cost-effectiveness of testosterone replacement therapy was dependent on whether uncertain effects on all-cause mortality were included in the model, and on the approach used to estimate the health state utility increment associated with testosterone replacement therapy, which might have been driven by improvements in symptoms such as sexual dysfunction and low mood.
UNASSIGNED: A meaningful evaluation of mortality was hampered by the limited number of defined events. Definition and reporting of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events and methods for testosterone measurement varied across trials.
UNASSIGNED: Our findings do not support a relationship between testosterone replacement therapy and cardiovascular/cerebrovascular events in the short-to-medium term. Testosterone replacement therapy improves sexual function and quality of life without adverse effects on blood pressure, serum lipids or glycaemic markers.
UNASSIGNED: Rigorous long-term evidence assessing the safety of testosterone replacement therapy and subgroups most benefiting from treatment is needed.
UNASSIGNED: The study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018111005.
UNASSIGNED: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: 17/68/01) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 43. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.
Testosterone is a hormone which is vital for sexual activity, bone growth and muscle development in men. Men with low testosterone levels may experience problems with erections and may suffer from brittle bones (osteoporosis), weakness, feeling down (low mood) and tiredness. The manifestations of low testosterone can be treated with testosterone replacement therapy. However, there is current uncertainty about the positive effects of testosterone replacement therapy and its safety. We brought together results from all available medical studies that looked at the use of testosterone replacement therapy in men with low testosterone and contacted the doctors who led these studies to gather further information on their participants. We found 35 studies (5601 participants) conducted in different countries, 17 of which provided additional information on their participants. We did not find any evidence to show that testosterone replacement therapy increases the risk of heart problems, or any evidence to show that some men who take testosterone replacement therapy benefit more than others. Men with low testosterone reported having low mood, poor concentration and lack of energy; however, medical studies often failed to prove that these manifestations improved with testosterone replacement therapy. Most medical studies were conducted among white men in North America using questionnaires designed specifically for them; therefore, the results may not reflect the experiences of men in other countries and from more diverse ethnic backgrounds. There is too much uncertainty about the benefits of testosterone replacement therapy to accurately estimate its value for money for the NHS. We think our findings offer some reassurance to doctors and patients that testosterone replacement therapy does not increase the risk of heart problems. New studies are needed to find out whether some groups of men (such as older or younger men) are more likely to benefit from testosterone replacement therapy more than others. It is also important to develop tools which better reflect the experience of men from a diverse range of social and ethnic backgrounds. To inform men with low testosterone about our findings, we are creating a website with dedicated YouTube video clips.

UNASSIGNED: Lynch syndrome is an inherited condition which leads to an increased risk of colorectal, endometrial and ovarian cancer. Risk-reducing surgery is generally recommended to manage the risk of gynaecological cancer once childbearing is completed. The value of gynaecological colonoscopic surveillance as an interim measure or instead of risk-reducing surgery is uncertain. We aimed to determine whether gynaecological surveillance was effective and cost-effective in Lynch syndrome.
UNASSIGNED: We conducted systematic reviews of the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of gynaecological cancer surveillance in Lynch syndrome, as well as a systematic review of health utility values relating to cancer and gynaecological risk reduction. Study identification included bibliographic database searching and citation chasing (searches updated 3 August 2021). Screening and assessment of eligibility for inclusion were conducted by independent researchers. Outcomes were prespecified and were informed by clinical experts and patient involvement. Data extraction and quality appraisal were conducted and results were synthesised narratively. We also developed a whole-disease economic model for Lynch syndrome using discrete event simulation methodology, including natural history components for colorectal, endometrial and ovarian cancer, and we used this model to conduct a cost-utility analysis of gynaecological risk management strategies, including surveillance, risk-reducing surgery and doing nothing.
UNASSIGNED: We found 30 studies in the review of clinical effectiveness, of which 20 were non-comparative (single-arm) studies. There were no high-quality studies providing precise outcome estimates at low risk of bias. There is some evidence that mortality rate is higher for surveillance than for risk-reducing surgery but mortality is also higher for no surveillance than for surveillance. Some asymptomatic cancers were detected through surveillance but some cancers were also missed. There was a wide range of pain experiences, including some individuals feeling no pain and some feeling severe pain. The use of pain relief (e.g. ibuprofen) was common, and some women underwent general anaesthetic for surveillance. Existing economic evaluations clearly found that risk-reducing surgery leads to the best lifetime health (measured using quality-adjusted life-years) and is cost-effective, while surveillance is not cost-effective in comparison. Our economic evaluation found that a strategy of surveillance alone or offering surveillance and risk-reducing surgery was cost-effective, except for path_PMS2 Lynch syndrome. Offering only risk-reducing surgery was less effective than offering surveillance with or without surgery.
UNASSIGNED: Firm conclusions about clinical effectiveness could not be reached because of the lack of high-quality research. We did not assume that women would immediately take up risk-reducing surgery if offered, and it is possible that risk-reducing surgery would be more effective and cost-effective if it was taken up when offered.
UNASSIGNED: There is insufficient evidence to recommend for or against gynaecological cancer surveillance in Lynch syndrome on clinical grounds, but modelling suggests that surveillance could be cost-effective. Further research is needed but it must be rigorously designed and well reported to be of benefit.
UNASSIGNED: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42020171098.
UNASSIGNED: This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR129713) and is published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 41. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.
Lynch syndrome is an inherited condition which puts people at a higher risk of getting bowel cancer, womb cancer and ovarian cancer. Although people with Lynch syndrome are more likely to get these cancers, they are more likely to survive cancer if they get it. People diagnosed with Lynch syndrome get regular testing (surveillance) using a camera to check for bowel cancer or polyps. For womb and ovarian cancer, surveillance may also be an option, but it is less well studied in these cancers. This means that many women are not offered surveillance. Women with Lynch syndrome are recommended to have risk-reducing surgery when their risk starts rising, if they do not want any more children. We wanted to find out whether surveillance for womb and ovarian cancer would work and would be good value for money. Doctors and patients have said that these are important research questions. We searched for published research on this subject and found a lot of studies, but these studies were often small or not well designed, so they could only tell us a limited amount. Studies did not always measure the things that patients want to know. There was some evidence that people having surveillance might live longer than people not having surveillance, but there was also some evidence that risk-reducing surgery is better than surveillance. Surveillance has detected some cancers which had no symptoms, but there are also cancers diagnosed soon after a surveillance visit where nothing was found. People often find surveillance painful, but experiences vary. Our work shows that surveillance and surgery could be good value for money for many women with Lynch syndrome. We need better research to help patients and doctors decide whether surveillance is right for them.

BACKGROUND: This study aimed to synthesize and quantitatively examine Health State Utility Values (HSUVs) for Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) and its complications, providing a robust meta-regression framework for selecting appropriate HSUV estimates.
METHODS: We conducted a systematic review to extract HSUVs for T2DM and its complications, encompassing various influencing factors. Relevant literature was sourced from a review spanning 2000-2020, supplemented by literature from PubMed, Embase, and the Web of Science (up to March 2024). Multivariate meta-regression was performed to evaluate the impact of measurement tools, tariffs, health status, and clinical and demographic variables on HSUVs.
RESULTS: Our search yielded 118 studies, contributing 1044 HSUVs. The HSUVs for T2DM with complications varied, from 0.65 for cerebrovascular disease to 0.77 for neuropathy. The EQ-5D-3L emerged as the most frequently employed valuation method. HSUV differences across instruments were observed; 15-D had the highest (0.89), while HUI-3 had the lowest (0.70) values. Regression analysis elucidated the significant effects of instrument and tariff choice on HSUVs. Complication-related utility decrement, especially in diabetic foot, was quantified. Age <70 was linked to increased HSUVs, while longer illness duration, hypertension, overweight and obesity correlated with reduced HSUVs.
CONCLUSIONS: Accurate HSUVs are vital for the optimization of T2DM management strategies. This study provided a comprehensive data pool for HSUVs selection, and quantified the influence of various factors on HSUVs, informing analysts and policymakers in understanding the utility variations associated with T2DM and its complications.

BACKGROUND: It is important to determine the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) to devise population-based cost-effective service delivery models. The present study aimed to evaluate the HRQoL of patients with refractive errors (RE) using generic and vision-specific instruments, identify the determinants of HRQoL, and examine the validity between the quality-of-life instruments for refractive errors.
METHODS: Face-to-face interviews were conducted with 515 participants with RE using generic as well as vision-specific HRQoL measures. Mean EuroQol-five dimensions-five levels (EQ-5D-5L) utility value, National Eye Institute-Visual Function Questionnaire-25 (NEI-VFQ-25) composite score, and EuroQol-Visual analogue scale (EQ-VAS) score were computed, and determinants of quality of life were determined using generalized linear regression model. The validity between generic and disease-specific measures was ascertained using Pearson\'s coefficient.
RESULTS: The mean EQ-5D-5L utility score for patients with RE was estimated as 0.72 (95% CI: 0.70-0.75). The mean NEI-VFQ-25 composite score and EQ-VAS score were 71.3 (95% CI: 69.8-73), and 74.7 (95% CI: 73.4-76.1), respectively. Visual acuity, gender, and presence of co-morbidities were significantly associated with quality of life. The concurrence between the generic and vision-specific instruments was found to be low to moderate.
CONCLUSIONS: The findings of the study indicate the importance of the value of quality of life for patients with RE, which could be taken into account by health administrators, doctors and researchers to carry out economic evaluations, since these measures provide a basis for an evaluation more precisely the impact of RE and guide the determination of efficient ways to alleviate the burden of treatable visual impairment. More research is required to explore the potential integration of a vision component, the sixth dimension, into the EQ-5D-5L instrument, given the moderate agreement observed between the generic and specific assessment tools.

UNASSIGNED: The current investigation presents a two-fold approach to rediscovering the potential of Sonchus asper as a wild edible plant, both in its raw extract form and as a nanoformulated product. Furthermore, the study aimed to promote the valorization of traditional dishes and contribute to biodiversity conservation and sustainable use of S. asper, thus enhancing economic profits.
UNASSIGNED: Liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry analyses were conducted to characterize the metabolite profile of the raw and cooked leaf extracts, and the extract from discarded leaves. The antioxidant activity, the hypoglycaemic effect and the incorporation into liposomes were evaluated.
UNASSIGNED: 38 compounds and 6 essential amino acids were identified. The incorporation into liposomes maximized the health-promoting properties for potential pharmaceutical or food applications.
UNASSIGNED: The commercialization of S. asper could: (i) contribute to improving the well-being of rural and urban communities, being S. asper a wild edible plant available at low cost, environmentally friendly, resilient, and adaptable; (ii) generate landowner economic returns.

Two vaccines against rotavirus diseases, Rotarix® and RotaTeq®, are being marketed in Spain; but rotavirus is not presently among the diseases covered by universal vaccination in Spain. The aim of this study was to assess the efficiency of extending Spain\'s current targeted rotavirus vaccination strategy including only preterm babies, to a policy of universal vaccination. A de novo cohort-based Markov model was built to evaluate the efficiency of three compared rotavirus vaccination strategies in Spain: targeted, universal, and no vaccination. Using Rotarix® or RotaTeq®, we compared the cost-utility of these strategies from both a societal perspective and Spanish National Health System (SNHS) perspective. The model represents the most important clinical events conceivably linked to rotavirus infection. Efficacy, effectiveness, safety, costs, and utilities were identified by systematic reviews. Incremental cost-utility ratio (ICUR) is EUR 23,638/QALY (Quality-Adjusted Life Year) for targeted vaccination with Rotarix® compared with no vaccination. The ICUR for the rest of the strategies evaluated are above EUR 30,000/QALY. The sensitivity analysis shows price as the only parameter that could make the universal vaccination strategy efficient. Considering a threshold of EUR 25,000/QALY, only targeted vaccination with Rotarix® would be efficient from societal perspective. Price drops of 36.9% for Rotarix® and 44.6% for RotaTeq® would make universal vaccination efficient.

Economic evaluations are used to compare the costs and consequences of healthcare interventions, including those for musculoskeletal (MSK) disorders, which are very common and a major source of morbidity and absence from work. Reimbursement decisions for interventions for MSK disorders by decision-makers rely on the findings of economic evaluations, the design and results of which depend largely on the perspective adopted. Despite methodological advancements in economic evaluations, there are no clear guidelines on the perspective to adopt. This paper explores the adoption of a societal perspective in economic evaluations of MSK disorders. Within health economics evaluations, the most commonly used perspectives include the payer perspective, the healthcare perspective, and the societal perspective. To facilitate optimal resource allocation decisions in order to reduce the significant economic burden of MSK disorders and improve the health outcomes of individuals with these disorders, all costs and benefits associated with interventions for them should be included. Thus, the societal perspective is arguably a preferable option to the others for economic evaluations of interventions for MSK disorders.

BACKGROUND: A sub-analysis of the Korean population in the LIBERTY ASTHMA QUEST trial (NCT02414854) revealed that dupilumab effectively treated severe uncontrolled asthma. This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of add-on therapy with dupilumab to background therapy in patients ≥ 12 years of age with uncontrolled severe asthma compared to that of background therapy in South Korea.
METHODS: The cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using a Markov model over a lifetime from the Korean healthcare system perspective. Clinical efficacy and utility weights were obtained from post-hoc analyses of the Korean population in the QUEST trial. Data on the costs and treatment setting of exacerbation in a real-world setting were retrospectively collected using the administrative medical database from a single tertiary hospital.
RESULTS: The base-case results indicated that add-on dupilumab therapy increases costs ($112,924 for add-on dupilumab versus $29,545 for background therapy alone). However, add-on dupilumab increased quality-adjusted life years (QALYs, 8.03 versus 3.93, respectively), with fewer events of severe exacerbations per patient compared to using the background therapy alone (17.920 versus 19.911, respectively). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $20,325 per QALY. Various sensitivity analyses supported the robustness of the base-case results. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed that the probability of add-on dupilumab being cost-effective was 87% at a threshold willingness-to-pay of $26,718 (KRW 35 million) per QALY gained.
CONCLUSIONS: Dupilumab is cost-effective for adolescents and adults with uncontrolled severe asthma in South Korea. Our study provides evidence to support clinicians and policymakers in making informed decisions for severe asthma management.