OBJECTIVE: Evaluating interventions for cardiovascular disease (CVD) requires estimates of its effect on utility. We aimed to 1) systematically review utility estimates for CVDs published since 2013 and 2) critically appraise UK-relevant estimates and calculate corresponding baseline utility multipliers.
METHODS: We searched MEDLINE and Embase (April 22, 2021) using CVD and utility terms. We screened results for primary studies reporting utility distributions for people with experience of heart failure, myocardial infarction, peripheral arterial disease, stable angina, stroke, transient ischemic attack, or unstable angina. We extracted characteristics from studies included. For UK estimates based on the EuroQoL 5-dimension (EQ-5D) measure, we assessed risk of bias and applicability to a decision-analytic model, pooled arms/time points as appropriate, and estimated baseline utility multipliers using predicted utility for age- and sex- matched populations without CVD. We sought utility sources from directly applicable studies with low risk of bias, prioritizing plausibility of severity ordering in our base-case model and highest population ascertainment in a sensitivity analysis.
RESULTS: Most of the 403 studies identified used EQ-5D (n = 217) and most assessed Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development populations (n = 262), although measures and countries varied widely. UK studies using EQ-5D (n = 29) produced very heterogeneous baseline utility multipliers for each type of CVD, precluding meta-analysis and implying different possible severity orderings. We could find sources that provided a plausible ordering of utilities while adequately representing health states.
CONCLUSIONS: We cataloged international CVD utility estimates and calculated UK-relevant baseline utility multipliers. Modelers should consider unreported sources of heterogeneity, such as population differences, when selecting utility evidence from reviews.
CONCLUSIONS: Published systematic reviews have summarized estimates of utility associated with cardiovascular disease published up to 2013.We 1) reviewed utility estimates for 7 types of cardiovascular disease published since 2013, 2) critically appraised UK-relevant studies, and 3) estimated the effect of each cardiovascular disease on baseline utility.Our review 1) recommends a consistent and reliable set of baseline utility multipliers for 7 types of cardiovascular disease and 2) provides systematically identified reference information for researchers seeking utility evidence for their own context.

A global plan has been set to end human deaths from dog-mediated rabies by 2030 (\"Zero-by-30\"), but whether it could be achieved in some countries, such as China, remains unclear. Although elimination strategies through post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) use, dog vaccination, and patient risk assessments with integrated bite case management (IBCM) were proposed to be cost-effective, evidence is still lacking in China. We aim to evaluate the future burdens of dog-mediated human rabies deaths in the next decade and provide quantitative evidence on the cost-effectiveness of different rabies-control strategies in China.
Based on data from China\'s national human rabies surveillance system, we used decision-analytic modelling to estimate dog-mediated human rabies death trends in China till 2035. We simulated and compared the expected consequences and costs of different combination strategies of the status quo, improved access to PEP, mass dog vaccination, and use of IBCM.
The predicted human rabies deaths in 2030 in China will be 308 (95%UI: 214-411) and remain stable in the next decade under the status quo. The strategy of improved PEP access alone could only decrease deaths to 212 (95%UI: 147-284) in 2028, remaining unchanged till 2035. In contrast, scaling up dog vaccination to coverage of 70% could eliminate rabies deaths by 2033 and prevent approximately 3,265 (95%UI: 2,477-3,687) extra deaths compared to the status quo during 2024-2035. Moreover, with the addition of IBCM, the \"One Health\" approach through mass dog vaccination could avoid unnecessary PEP use and substantially reduce total cost from 12.53 (95%UI: 11.71-13.34) to 8.73 (95%UI: 8.09-9.85) billion US dollars. Even if increasing the total costs of IBCM from 100 thousand to 652.10 million US dollars during 2024-2035, the combined strategy of mass dog vaccination and use of IBCM will still dominate, suggesting the robustness of our results.
The combined strategy of mass dog vaccination and IBCM requires collaboration between health and livestock/veterinary sectors, and it could eliminate Chinese rabies deaths as early as 2033, with more deaths averted and less cost, indicating that adding IBCM could reduce unnecessary use of PEP and make the \"One Health\" rabies-control strategy most cost-effective.

OBJECTIVE: To appraise the sources of evidence and methods to estimate input parameter values in decision-analytic model-based cost-effectiveness analyses of treatments for primary breast cancer (PBC) in older patients (≥ 70 years old).
METHODS: Two electronic databases (Ovid Medline, Ovid EMBASE) were searched (inception until 5 September-2021) to identify model-based full economic evaluations of treatments for older women with PBC as part of their base-case target population or age-subgroup analysis. Data sources and methods to estimate four types of input parameters including health-related quality of life (HRQoL); natural history; treatment effect; resource use were extracted and appraised. Quality assessment was completed by reference to the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards.
RESULTS: Seven model-based economic evaluations were included (older patients as part of their base-case (n = 3) or subgroup (n = 4) analysis). Data from younger patients (< 70 years) were used frequently to estimate input parameters. Different methods were adopted to adjust these estimates for an older population (HRQoL: disutility multipliers, additive utility decrements; Natural history: calibration of absolute values, one-way sensitivity analyses; Treatment effect: observational data analysis, age-specific behavioural parameters, plausible scenario analyses; Resource use: matched control observational data analysis, age-dependent follow-up costs).
CONCLUSIONS: Improving estimated input parameters for older PBC patients will improve estimates of cost-effectiveness, decision uncertainty, and the value of further research. The methods reported in this review can inform future cost-effectiveness analyses to overcome data challenges for this population. A better understanding of the value of treatments for these patients will improve population health outcomes, clinical decision-making, and resource allocation decisions.

Breastfeeding is associated with health benefits to mothers and babies and cost-savings to the health service. Breastfeeding rates in the UK are low for various reasons including cultural barriers, inadequate support to initiate and sustain breastfeeding, lack of information, or choice not to breastfeed. Education and support interventions have been developed aiming at promoting breastfeeding rates. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of such interventions for women, initiated antenatally or in the first 8 weeks postnatally, aiming at improving breastfeeding rates, in the UK.
A decision-analytic model was constructed to compare costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) of a breastfeeding intervention from the perspective of health and personal social services in England. Data on intervention effectiveness and the benefits of breastfeeding were derived from systematic reviews. Other model input parameters were obtained from published sources, supplemented by expert opinion.
The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the modelled intervention added on standard care versus standard care was £51,946/QALY, suggesting that the intervention is not cost-effective under National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) criteria in England. Sensitivity analysis suggested that the cost-effectiveness of the intervention improved as its effectiveness increased and intervention cost decreased. At the base-case effect (increase in breastfeeding rates 16-26 weeks after birth by 19%), the intervention was cost-effective (<£20,000/QALY) if its cost per woman receiving the intervention became ≈£40-£45. At the base-case cost (£84), the intervention was cost-effective if it increased breastfeeding rates by at least 35-40%.
Available breastfeeding interventions do not appear to be cost-effective under NICE criteria in England. Future breastfeeding interventions need to have higher effectiveness or lower cost compared with currently available interventions in order to become cost-effective. Public health and other societal interventions that protect, promote and support breastfeeding may be key in improving breastfeeding rates in the UK.

PTSD in youth may lead to long-lasting psychological implications, educational difficulties and increased healthcare costs. Psychological interventions have been shown to be effective in its management. The objective of this study was to assess the cost-effectiveness of a range of psychological interventions for children and young people with PTSD.
A decision-analytic model was constructed to compare costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) of 10 psychological interventions and no treatment for children and young people with PTSD, from the perspective of the National Health Service and personal social services in England. Effectiveness data were derived from a systematic review and network meta-analysis. Other model input parameters were based on published sources, supplemented by expert opinion.
Cognitive therapy for PTSD, a form of individual trauma-focused cognitive behavioural therapy (TF-CBT), appeared to be the most cost-effective intervention for children and young people with PTSD (with a probability of .78 amongst the 11 evaluated options at a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20,000/QALY), followed by narrative exposure (another form of individual TF-CBT), play therapy, and other forms of individual TF-CBT. After excluding cognitive therapy from the analysis, narrative exposure appeared to be the most cost-effective option with a .40 probability of being cost-effective amongst the remaining 10 options. EMDR, parent training and group TF-CBT occupied middle cost-effectiveness rankings. Family therapy and supportive counselling were less cost-effective than other active interventions. There was limited evidence for some interventions, in particular cognitive therapy for PTSD and parent training.
Individual forms of TF-CBT and, to a lesser degree, play therapy appear to be cost-effective in the treatment of children and young people with PTSD. Family therapy and supportive counselling are unlikely to be cost-effective relative to other interventions. There is a need for well-conducted studies that examine the long-term clinical and cost-effectiveness of a range of psychological treatments for children and young people with PTSD.

BACKGROUND: Whilst people with intellectual disability grow older, evidence has emerged internationally about the largely unmet health needs of this specific ageing population. Health checks have been implemented in some countries to address those health inequalities. Evaluations have focused on measuring process outcomes due to challenges measuring quality of life outcomes. In addition, the cost-effectiveness is currently unknown. As part of a national guideline for this population we sought to explore the likely cost-effectiveness of annual health checks in England.
METHODS: Decision-analytical Markov modelling was used to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a strategy, in which health checks were provided for older people with intellectual disability, when compared with standard care. The approach we took was explorative. Individual models were developed for a selected range of health conditions, which had an expected high economic impact and for which sufficient evidence was available for the modelling. In each of the models, hypothetical cohorts were followed from 40 yrs. of age until death. The outcome measure was cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) were calculated. Costs were assessed from a health provider perspective and expressed in 2016 GBP. Costs and QALYs were discounted at 3.5%. We carried out probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Data from published studies as well as expert opinion informed parameters.
RESULTS: Health checks led to a mean QALY gain of 0.074 (95% CI 0.072 to 0.119); and mean incremental costs of £4787 (CI 95% 4773 to 5017). For a threshold of £30,000 per QALY, health checks were not cost-effective (mean ICER £85,632; 95% CI 82,762 to 131,944). Costs of intervention needed to reduce from £258 to under £100 per year in order for health checks to be cost-effective.
CONCLUSIONS: Whilst findings need to be considered with caution as the model was exploratory in that it was based on assumptions to overcome evidence gaps, they suggest that the way health systems deliver care for vulnerable populations might need to be re-examined. The work was carried out as part of a national guideline and informed recommendations about system changes to achieve more equal health care provisions.

The payoff time represents an estimate of when the benefits of an intervention outweigh the costs. It is particularly useful for benefit-harm decision making for interventions that have deferred benefits but upfront harms. The aim of this study was to expand the application of the payoff time and provide an example of its use within a decision-analytic model.
Three clinically relevant patient vignettes based on varying levels of estimated 10-year cardiovascular risk (10%, 15%, 20%) were developed. An existing state-transition Markov model taking a health service perspective and a life-time horizon was adapted to include 3 levels of direct treatment disutility (DTD) associated with ongoing statin use: 0.005, 0.01, and 0.015. For each vignette and DTD we calculated a range of outputs including the payoff time inclusive and exclusive of healthcare costs.
For a 10% 10-year cardiovascular risk (vignette 1) with low-levels of DTD (0.005), the payoff time was 8.5 years when costs were excluded and 16 years when costs were included. As the baseline risk of cardiovascular increased, the payoff time shortened. For a 15% cardiovascular risk (vignette 2) and for a low-level of DTD, the payoff time was 5.5 years and 9.5 years, respectively. For a 20% cardiovascular risk (vignette 3), the payoff time was 4.2 and 7.2 years, respectively. For higher levels of DTDs for each vignette, the payoff time lengthened, and in some instances the intervention never paid off, leading to an expected net harm for patients.
This study has shown how the payoff time can be readily applied to an existing decision-analytic model and be used to complement existing measures to guide healthcare decision making.

Our aim was to adapt the traditional framework for expected net benefit of sampling (ENBS) to be more compatible with drug development trials from the pharmaceutical perspective. We modify the traditional framework for conducting ENBS and assume that the price of the drug is conditional on the trial outcomes. We use a value-based pricing (VBP) criterion to determine price conditional on trial data using Bayesian updating of cost-effectiveness (CE) model parameters. We assume that there is a threshold price below which the company would not market the new intervention. We present a case study in which a phase III trial sample size and trial duration are varied. For each trial design, we sampled 10,000 trial outcomes and estimated VBP using a CE model. The expected commercial net benefit is calculated as the expected profits minus the trial costs. A clinical trial with shorter follow-up, and larger sample size, generated the greatest expected commercial net benefit. Increasing the duration of follow-up had a modest impact on profit forecasts. Expected net benefit of sampling can be adapted to value clinical trials in the pharmaceutical industry to optimise the expected commercial net benefit. However, the analyses can be very time consuming for complex CE models.