■确定慢性乙型肝炎(HBV)和丙型肝炎(HCV)感染的数量对于评估实现世界卫生组织2030年病毒性肝炎消除目标的进展至关重要。使用日本国家数据库(NDB)的数据,我们计算了2015年慢性HBV和HCV感染的数量,并预测了到2035年的趋势。
■NDB和首次献血者数据用于计算2015年慢性HBV和HCV感染的数量。使用从NDB数据计算的转移概率,应用马尔可夫模拟来预测直到2035年的慢性感染。
■2015年日本的慢性HBV和HCV感染总数为1,905,187-2,490,873(HCV:877,841-1,302,179,HBV:1,027,346-1,188,694),其中923,661-1,509,347人未被诊断或诊断,但与护理无关(“不从事护理”),981,526人从事护理工作。慢性HBV和HCV感染预计在2030年为923,313-1,304,598,在2035年为739,118-1,045,884。与2015年相比,到2035年,未从事护理的HCV患者人数将下降59·8-76·1%和86·5%。对于HBV,对于未从事护理的患者,预计将减少47·3-49·3%,对于从事护理的患者,预计将减少26·0%。
■尽管预计到2035年HBV和HCV的负担将减少,但控制肝炎的挑战仍然存在。改进和创新的筛查策略,与HCV病例的护理挂钩,和HBV的功能性治愈是必要的。
■日本卫生部,劳动和福利。
UNASSIGNED: Determining the number of chronic hepatitis B (HBV) and C virus (HCV) infections is essential to assess the progress towards the World Health Organization 2030 viral hepatitis elimination goals. Using data from the Japanese National Database (NDB), we calculated the number of chronic HBV and HCV infections in 2015 and predicted the trend until 2035.
UNASSIGNED: NDB and first-time blood donors data were used to calculate the number of chronic HBV and HCV infections in 2015. A Markov simulation was applied to predict chronic infections until 2035 using transition probabilities calculated from NDB data.
UNASSIGNED: The total number of chronic HBV and HCV infections in 2015 in Japan was 1,905,187-2,490,873 (HCV:877,841-1,302,179, HBV:1,027,346-1,188,694), of which 923,661-1,509,347 were undiagnosed or diagnosed but not linked to care (\"not engaged in care\"), and 981,526 were engaged in care. Chronic HBV and HCV infections are expected to be 923,313-1,304,598 in 2030, and 739,118-1,045,884 in 2035. Compared to 2015, by 2035, the number of persons with HCV not engaged in care will decline by 59·8 - 76·1% and 86·5% for patients in care. For HBV, a 47·3 - 49·3% decrease is expected for persons not engaged in care and a decline of 26·0% for patients engaged in care.
UNASSIGNED: Although the burden of HBV and HCV is expected to decrease by 2035, challenges in controlling hepatitis remain. Improved and innovative screening strategies with linkage to care for HCV cases, and a functional cure for HBV are needed.
UNASSIGNED: Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.