描述西班牙在2008年经济危机之前(经济衰退前;1998-2008年)和期间(衰退期;2009-2013年)的生育率趋势,同时考虑到2010年妇女的年龄和地区失业率。
该研究包括一个面板设计,包括西班牙17个地区的横截面生态数据。我们描述了西班牙在两个时期的生育率趋势,衰退前(1998-2008年)和衰退前(2009-2013年)。我们用了一个横截面,对西班牙出生的妇女进行生态研究,以使用线性回归模型调整年份来计算每个时期的生育率变化,period,以及它们之间的互动。
我们发现,与经济衰退前相比,西班牙的生育率在经济衰退期间普遍下降。然而,在一些地区,比如加那利群岛,这种下降是在经济衰退开始之前开始的,而在其他地区,比如巴斯克地区,生育率一直增长到2011年。在30-34岁的妇女中可以清楚地观察到经济衰退对生育率的影响。
当前的经济衰退打乱了本世纪初开始的生育率的积极趋势。由于西班牙的生育率已经很低,经济衰退造成的进一步衰退可能危及福利国家体系的可持续性。
To describe trends in fertility in Spain before (pre-recession; 1998-2008) and during (recession period; 2009-2013) the economic crisis of 2008, taking into account women\'s age and regional unemployment in 2010.
The study consisted of a panel design including cross-sectional ecological data for the 17 regions of Spain. We describe fertility trends in Spain in two time periods, pre-recession (1998-2008) and recession (2009-2013). We used a cross-sectional, ecological study of Spanish-born women to calculate changes in fertility rates for each period using a linear regression model adjusted for year, period, and interaction between them.
We found that compared to the pre-recession period, the fertility rate in Spain generally decreased during the economic recession. However, in some regions, such as the Canary Islands, this decrease began before the onset of the recession, while in other regions, such as the Basque country, the fertility rate continued to grow until 2011. The effects of the recession on the fertility rate are clearly observed in women aged 30-34 years.
The current economic recession has disrupted the positive trend in fertility that began at the start of this century. Since Spain already had very low fertility rates, the further decline caused by the economic recession could jeopardize the sustainability of welfare-state systems.