Compression of morbidity

  • 文章类型: English Abstract
    BACKGROUND: The long-term increase in life expectancy raises the question of whether the increased life expectancy is accompanied by an extension of years without health limitations. The study analyzes how life expectancy without functional and mobility limitations from the ages of 46 and 65 and their proportions of remaining life expectancy have changed since 2008.
    METHODS: We analyze data from the German Ageing Survey of the 2008, 2014, and 2020/21 waves. Life expectancy without functional limitations (disability-free life expectancy-DFLE) was calculated using the Sullivan method. Severe functional limitations (using the Global Activity Limitation Indicator-GALI) and mobility limitations (climbing stairs, walking more than 1 km) were examined.
    RESULTS: Compression of morbidity in the GALI has been observed in 46- and 65-year-old men since 2014, but not in women of the same age. In terms of mobility, 46- and 65-year-old men show trends towards compression when climbing stairs and 46-year-old men when walking more than 1 km since 2014. The values for women have stagnated for the first two indicators mentioned, but not for 46-year-old women since 2014 when walking more than 1 km.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our analyses show different trends in DFLE depending on the indicator, age, and gender and do not allow a clear answer to the question of morbidity compression or expansion. We tend to see morbidity compression in men, whereas trends of stagnation or expansion tend to be seen in women. These results signal challenges in maintaining functional health, especially in women, and point to the need for targeted interventions to improve quality of life and healthy life expectancy.
    UNASSIGNED: EINLEITUNG: Der langfristige Anstieg der Lebenserwartung wirft die Frage auf, ob die gewonnene Lebenszeit mit einer Verlängerung der Jahre ohne gesundheitliche Einschränkungen einhergeht. Die Studie untersucht, wie sich die Lebenserwartung ohne funktionelle und Mobilitätseinschränkungen ab dem Alter 46 und 65 Jahre sowie ihre Anteile an der Restlebenserwartung seit 2008 verändert haben.
    METHODS: Wir analysieren Daten des Deutschen Alterssurveys der Wellen 2008, 2014 und 2020/2021. Die Lebenserwartung ohne funktionelle Einschränkungen (Disability Free Life Expectancy – DFLE) wurde mit der Sullivan-Methode berechnet. Untersucht wurden starke funktionelle Einschränkungen mit dem „Global Activity Limitation Indicator“ (GALI) und Einschränkungen der Mobilität (Treppensteigen, mehr als 1 km Gehen).
    UNASSIGNED: Kompression der Morbidität beim GALI ist bei 46- und 65-jährigen Männern seit 2014 zu beobachten, bei gleichaltrigen Frauen dagegen nicht. Bei der Mobilität zeigen 46- und 65-jährige Männer Tendenzen zur Kompression beim Treppensteigen und 46-jährige Männer beim Gehen von mehr als 1 km seit 2014. Die Werte für Frauen stagnieren für die beiden erstgenannten Indikatoren, aber nicht für 46-jährige Frauen beim Gehen von mehr als 1 km seit 2014.
    CONCLUSIONS: Unsere Analysen zeigen je nach Indikator, Alter und Geschlecht unterschiedliche Trends der DFLE und lassen keine eindeutige Antwort auf die Frage nach Morbiditätskompression oder -expansion zu. Kompression der Morbidität sehen wir eher bei Männern, Tendenzen der Stagnation oder Expansion dagegen eher bei Frauen. Diese Resultate signalisieren Herausforderungen in der Erhaltung der funktionellen Gesundheit vor allem bei Frauen und weisen auf die Notwendigkeit gezielter Interventionen hin, um die Lebensqualität und die gesunde Lebenserwartung zu verbessern.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    关于健康变化的详细类型以及类型与收入不平等之间的关联的研究不足。这项研究分析了1990年至2016年间194个国家和地区发病率压缩和扩大的全球分布,并调查了收入不平等在分配中的作用。这项研究表明,所有七种健康变化并存,尽管分布不均。随着预期寿命的增加或恒定,发病率的相对扩大(6型,54.48%)是最受欢迎的类型,其次是发病率的相对压缩,预期寿命增加或恒定(3型,30.71%)。社会内的收入分配对健康变化很重要。收入不平等程度更大的社会往往有6型,这是一种更糟糕的健康变化情况。减少收入不平等或减轻其不利影响的措施将有助于在预期寿命增加或不变的情况下相对压缩发病率。
    Studies on detailed types of health changes and the associations between the types and income inequality are inadequate. This study analyses the global distribution of the compression and expansion of morbidity in 194 countries and territories between 1990 and 2016, and investigates the role of income inequality in the distribution. This study shows that all seven types of health changes coexist, despite being distributed unevenly. The relative expansion of morbidity with increased or constant life expectancy (Type 6, 54.48%) is the most popular type, followed by the relative compression of morbidity with increased or constant life expectancy (Type 3, 30.71%). Income distribution within a society matters for health changes. Societies with greater income inequality tend to have Type 6, a worse scenario of health changes. Measures to reduce income inequality or mitigate its adverse effects will contribute to the relative compression of morbidity with increased or constant life expectancy.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:这项研究有助于以前的倡议检查健康和积极老龄化在菲律宾。
    方法:我们采用沙利文方法,使用2007年菲律宾老龄化调查和2018年老龄化与健康纵向研究来计算健康预期寿命(HLE)和积极预期寿命(ALE)。我们比较了两个时间点的估计值,提供随时间变化的证据。
    结果:男女的HLE相对比例随时间变化无统计学意义,表明动态平衡。对于男人来说,预期寿命的增加主要是不健康状态(UHLE)的增加。所有年龄段的HLE略有增加没有统计学意义。HLE的相对增加差异无统计学意义。女性的HLE随着时间的推移而增加,在60岁和70岁时具有统计学上的显着增长。ALE在所有年龄组男女都有所下降,但这种下降仅在60多岁和70多岁的女性中具有统计学意义。在所有年龄段的男性和女性中,处于活跃状态的剩余寿命比例也有统计学上的显着下降,表明发病率的扩大。
    结论:研究结果表明,从2007年到2018年,菲律宾没有发病率降低的证据。HLE结果表明了一种动态平衡,而ALE结果表明发病率增加。研究结果强调,政府需要促进促进健康选择的生命过程干预措施,并进行进一步的研究,以了解影响菲律宾长寿和积极老龄化的因素。GeriatrGerontolInt2022;22:511-515。
    OBJECTIVE: This study contributes to previous initiatives examining healthy and active aging in the Philippines.
    METHODS: We employed the Sullivan method to calculate healthy life expectancy (HLE) and active life expectancy (ALE) using the 2007 Philippine Survey on Aging and the 2018 Longitudinal Study of Ageing and Health. We compared the estimates at two time points, providing evidence of change over time.
    RESULTS: There was no statistically significant change in the relative proportion of HLE over time for both sexes, suggesting dynamic equilibrium. For men, the increase in life expectancy was mainly an increase in unhealthy state (UHLE). The slight increases in HLE for all ages were not statistically significant. The differences in relative increase in HLE were not statistically significant. HLE for women increased over time, with statistically significant increases at ages 60 and 70 years. ALE declined in all age groups for both sexes, but the decline was statistically significant only among women in their 60s and 70s. There was also a statistically significant decline in the proportion of remaining life in an active state for all ages among both men and women, suggesting an expansion of morbidity.
    CONCLUSIONS: Findings suggest no evidence of compression of morbidity in the Philippines from 2007 to 2018. The HLE results suggest a dynamic equilibrium, while ALE results indicate an expansion of morbidity. The findings emphasize the need for the government to promote life course interventions that foster healthy choices and conduct further research to understand the factors influencing longevity and active aging in the Philippines. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2022; 22: 511-515.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    这篇文章探讨了健康模式,发病率,在美国,连续几代老年人的残疾都发生了变化。使用一种新的方法来比较特定于状态的部分预期寿命-也就是说,总预期寿命(LE),和不同健康状态下的健康预期(HE),介于两个年龄段之间-我探讨了美国人口连续出生队列中健康预期寿命的变化。结果表明,在队列中几乎没有残疾压缩,患有慢性疾病的LE已大大扩展,自我评估的健康状况在各个队列中都在改善,但只有在70岁以上。这些发现表明,就晚年的健康和福祉而言,美国人口的连续队列可能处于不同的路径上。探索这些模式中的异质性,我发现受教育程度较低的人比受教育程度较高的人的部分LE和无残疾LE要低得多,在高中文凭以下的人中,无残疾生活正在下降。在种族和族裔群体中,HE的差异普遍存在,在一些弱势亚组中,残疾LE和不健康LE都在扩大。在连续队列中,部分LE的发病率持续增加,以及无残疾和健康LE的广泛停滞,提出了美国人口的广泛观点,其中连续几代人都没有过更健康的生活。
    This article explores how patterns of health, morbidity, and disability have changed across successive generations of older adults in the United States. Using a novel method for comparing state-specific partial life expectancies-that is, total life expectancy (LE), and health expectancies (HEs) in different health states, bounded between two ages-I explore changes in healthy life expectancy across successive birth cohorts of the U.S. population. Results show that little compression of disability is occurring across cohorts, LE with chronic morbidities has expanded considerably, and self-rated health is improving across cohorts, but only at ages 70+. These findings suggest that successive cohorts in the U.S. population may be on divergent paths in terms of late-life health and well-being. Exploring heterogeneity in these patterns, I find that less educated individuals have substantially lower partial LE and disability-free LE than those with more schooling, and that disability-free life is declining among those with less than a high school diploma. Differences in HEs are pervasive across racial and ethnic groups, and both disabled LE and unhealthy LE are expanding in some disadvantaged subgroups. The continued increases in partial LE with morbidities across successive cohorts, and the broad stagnation of disability-free and healthy LE, present a broad view of a U.S. population in which successive generations are not living healthier lives.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    癌症是全球发病率和死亡率的主要负担。到目前为止,然而,人们对时间趋势和没有任何癌症的生命长度的不平等知之甚少。这项研究通过分析无癌预期寿命(CFLE)中的时间趋势和收入不平等来解决这一差距。对于这项回顾性队列研究,使用了一家大型德国健康保险公司的数据(N=3,405,673人,2006-2018)。使用个人收入(<德国平均收入(GAI)的60%和GAI的≥60%)评估收入不平等。通过将观察时间分为三个52个月,采用比例风险回归模型分析了发生率风险的趋势。基于多个递减寿命表计算了CFLE的总体趋势和最常见的部位特异性癌症的趋势。几乎所有癌症的发病率都在下降,随着时间的推移,CFLE大幅增加(男性49.1年(95%CI48.8-49.4)至51.9年(95%CI51.6-52.2),53.1(95%CI52.7-53.5)至55.4(95%CI55.1-55.8)岁的20岁女性总癌症)和收入组。男女在癌症风险方面存在相当大的收入不平等,但在男性中更为明显(总癌症HR0.86(95%CI0.85-0.87)),收入较高的人风险较低。收入不平等最高的是结肠(HR0.90(95%CI0.87-0.93)),胃(HR0.78(95%CI0.73-0.84)),男性肺癌(HR0.58(95%CI0.56-0.60))。皮肤(男性HR1.39(95%CI1.30-1.47);女性HR1.27(95%CI1.20-1.35))和前列腺癌(HR1.13(95%CI1.11-1.15))发现了反向梯度。肺的CFLE在总预期寿命中的比例下降,女性的皮肤癌和宫颈癌,表明无癌寿命相对缩短。相比之下,在乳腺癌和前列腺癌中发现比例增加。据我们所知,这是第一项分析CFLE趋势和收入不平等的研究。随着时间的推移,没有癌症的寿命明显增加。然而,并非所有癌症类型都对这种积极发展做出了同样的贡献。收入不平等持续或趋于扩大,这强调了社会经济弱势群体加强公共卫生工作的必要性。
    Cancer represents a major burden of morbidity and mortality globally. So far, however, little is known on time trends and inequalities in the lengths of life spent free of any cancer. This study steps into this gap by analyzing time trends and income inequalities in cancer-free life expectancy (CFLE). For this retrospective cohort study, data of a large German health insurer were used (N = 3,405,673individuals, 2006-2018). Income inequalities were assessed using individual income (<60% of German average income (GAI) and ≥60% of GAI). Trends in incidence risks were analysed employing proportional-hazard regression models by splitting the observation time into three periods of 52 months. Trends in CFLE in total and for the most common site-specific cancers were calculated based on multiple decrement life tables. Incidence rates declined in almost all cancers and CFLE increased substantially over time (49.1 (95% CI 48.8-49.4) to 51.9 (95% CI 51.6-52.2) years for men, 53.1 (95% CI 52.7-53.5) to 55.4 (95% CI 55.1-55.8) years for women at age 20 for total cancer) and income groups. Considerable income inequalities in cancer risks were evident in both sexes, but were more pronounced in men (total cancer HR 0.86 (95% CI 0.85-0.87)), with higher-income individuals having lower risks. The highest income inequalities were found in colon (HR 0.90 (95% CI 0.87-0.93)), stomach (HR 0.78 (95% CI 0.73-0.84)), and lung cancer (HR 0.58 (95% CI 0.56-0.60)) in men. A reverse gradient was found for skin (HR 1.39 (95% CI 1.30-1.47) men; HR 1.27 (95% CI 1.20-1.35) women) and prostate cancer (HR 1.13 (95% CI 1.11-1.15)). The proportion of CFLE in total life expectancy declined for lung, skin and cervical cancer in women, indicating a relative shortening of lifetime spent cancer-free. In contrast, increasing proportions were found in breast and prostate cancer. To our knowledge, this is the first study analysing trends and income inequalities in CFLE. The life span free of cancer increased clearly over time. However, not all cancer types contributed equally to this positive development. Income inequalities persisted or tended to widen, which underlines the need for increased public health efforts in socioeconomically vulnerable groups.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    来自健康与疾病发育起源(DOHaD)理论的证据表明,经历不利的早期生活条件随后会导致有害的成人健康结果。大量的经验DOHaD文献没有考虑人口水平上不利的早期生活条件的影响的性质和程度。特别是,它忽略了成人健康和死亡率的年龄和队列模式的扭曲,以及随之而来的慢性疾病和残疾负担的增加。在本文中,我们使用微观模拟模型结合肥胖发生率和患病率的经验估计,2型糖尿病,评估延迟对成人健康预期寿命的影响程度,以及对老年人发病率的压缩(或扩大)的影响程度。主要目标是确定,以何种方式,以及由于早期疾病导致的延迟效应在多大程度上会影响队列的慢性疾病和残疾状况。
    Evidence from theories of Developmental Origins of Health and Disease (DOHaD) suggests that experiencing adverse early life conditions subsequently leads to detrimental adult health outcomes. The bulk of empirical DOHaD literature does not consider the nature and magnitude of the impact of adverse early life conditions at the population level. In particular, it ignores the distortion of age and cohort patterns of adult health and mortality and the increased load of chronic illness and disability that ensues. In this paper, we use a microsimulation model combined with empirical estimates of incidence and prevalence of obesity, type 2 diabetes, and associated disability in low- and middle-income countries to assess the magnitude of delayed effects on adult healthy life expectancy and on compression (or expansion) of morbidity at older ages. The main goal is to determine if, in what ways, and to what extent delayed effects due to early conditions can influence cohorts\' chronic illness and disability profiles.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    In this paper, I present an emerging explanatory framework about ageing and care. In particular, I focus on how, in contrast to most classical accounts of ageing, biomedicine today construes the ageing process as a modifiable trajectory. This framing turns ageing from a stage of inexorable decline into the focus of preventive strategies, harnessing the functional plasticity of the ageing organism. I illustrate this shift by focusing on studies of the demographic dynamics in human population, observations of ageing as an intraspecifically heterogenous phenotype, and the experimental manipulation of longevity, in both model organisms and humans. I suggest that such an explanatory framework about ageing creates the epistemological conditions for the rise of a peculiar form of prevention that does not aim to address a specific condition. Rather it seeks to stall the age-related accumulation of molecular damage and functional deficits, boosting individual resilience against age-related decline. I call this preventive paradigm \"ground-state prevention.\" While new, ground-state prevention bears conceptual resemblance to forms of medical wisdom prominent in classic Galenic medicine, as well as in the Renaissance period.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    In view of the upcoming demographic transition, there is still no clear evidence on how increasing life expectancy will affect future disease burden, especially regarding specific diseases. In our study, we project the future development of Germany\'s ten most common non-infectious diseases (arthrosis, coronary heart disease, pulmonary, bronchial and tracheal cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, cerebrovascular diseases, dementia, depression, diabetes, dorsal pain and heart failure) in a Markov illness-death model with recovery until 2060.
    The disease-specific input data stem from a consistent data set of a major sickness fund covering about four million people, the demographic components from official population statistics. Using six different scenarios concerning an expansion and a compression of morbidity as well as increasing recovery and effective prevention, we can show the possible future range of disease burden and, by disentangling the effects, reveal the significant differences between the various diseases in interaction with the demographic components.
    Our results indicate that, although strongly age-related diseases like dementia or heart failure show the highest relative increase rates, diseases of the musculoskeletal system, such as dorsal pain and arthrosis, still will be responsible for the majority of the German population\'s future disease burden in 2060, with about 25-27 and 13-15 million patients, respectively. Most importantly, for almost all considered diseases a significant increase in burden of disease can be expected even in case of a compression of morbidity.
    A massive case-load is emerging on the German health care system, which can only be alleviated by more effective prevention. Immediate action by policy makers and health care managers is needed, as otherwise the prevalence of widespread diseases will become unsustainable from a capacity point-of-view.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    OBJECTIVE: We examined changes in the burden of depressive symptoms between 2006 and 2014 in 18 European countries across different age groups.
    METHODS: We used population-based data drawn from the European Social Survey (N = 64.683, 54% female, age 14-90 years) covering 18 countries (Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Great Britain, Hungary, Ireland, The Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland) from 2006 to 2014. Depressive symptoms were measured via the CES-D 8. Generalized additive models, multilevel regression, and linear regression analyses were conducted.
    RESULTS: We found a general decline in CES-D 8 scale scores in 2014 as compared with 2006, with only few exceptions in some countries. This decline was most strongly pronounced in older adults, less strongly in middle-aged adults, and least in young adults. Including education, health and income partially explained the decline in older but not younger or middle-aged adults.
    CONCLUSIONS: Burden of depressive symptoms decreased in most European countries between 2006 and 2014. However, the decline in depressive symptoms differed across age groups and was most strongly pronounced in older adults and least in younger adults. Future studies should investigate the mechanisms that contribute to these overall and differential changes over time in depressive symptoms.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Healthy aging is a process that occurs over the life cycle. Health habits established early and practiced throughout life impact longevity, the ability to reach old age, and the health with which one experiences older adulthood. The new field of lifestyle medicine addresses root causes of disease by targeting nutrition, physical activity, well-being, stress management, substance use, connectedness, and sleep. As a result, lifestyle medicine can optimize the trajectory of aging, and promote targets that have been recognized in geriatric medicine as essential to well-being and quality of life, resulting in a compression of morbidity.
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