气候变化是人类世最关注的话题之一。海水温度的升高会引发一系列的生态后果,改变海洋生态系统为人类提供的各种功能和服务。Fisheries,具体来说,将可能面临最直接的影响。中国以巨大和密集的捕捞努力提供无与伦比的渔获量,和中国海的水温正在显著升高。然而,气候变化对中国海域捕捞鱼种和渔业影响的不确定性对应对和适应策略的制定提出了挑战。这里,我们采用了气候风险评估框架来评估过去十年中国各省的捕捞物种和渔业的气候风险,旨在有利于制定和优先考虑气候变化的适当适应方案。结果表明,考虑到2010年代的水温,中国海域20%的渔种有四分之一的栖息地不适合,随着2050年代未来变暖的情景,情况将变得更糟,届时近一半的物种将有至少四分之一的栖息地不再适合。整合危险,暴露和脆弱性,渔业的气候风险具有各省之间的异质性。北部省份渔业的气候风险具有低危害和高暴露的特点,而南部地区主要是由高危害和低暴露决定的。气候变化正在威胁着捕捞物种,并显着改变了中国海域的渔业模式。转移捕鱼目标,提高捕捞效率,提高渔获量的多样性,更新渔业相关产业将是帮助渔业适应气候变化的有效步骤,适应战略需要根据当地实际情况进行调整。
Climate change is one of the most concerning topics in the Anthropocene. Increasing sea water temperature will trigger a series of ecological consequences, altering the various functions and services that marine ecosystems provide for humans. Fisheries, specifically, will likely face the most direct impact. China provides unparalleled catches with enormous and intensive fishing effort, and China Seas are suffering from significantly increasing water temperature. However, uncertainties in the impacts of climate change on fishing species and fisheries in the China Seas present challenges for the formulation of coping and adapting strategies. Here, we employed a climate risk assessment framework to evaluate the climate risks of fishing species and fisheries of various provinces in China in the past decade, aiming to benefit the development and prioritization of appropriate adaptation options to climate change. Results show that considering the water temperature in the 2010s, 20 % of fishing species in the China Seas have one-fourth of their habitats unsuitable, and the situation will become worse with future warming scenarios in the 2050s when nearly half of species will have at least one-fourth of their habitats no longer suitable. Integrating hazard, exposure and vulnerability, climate risks to fisheries feature heterogeneity among provinces. Climate risks to fisheries of northern provinces are characterized by low hazard and high exposure, while the southern counterparts are largely determined by high hazard and low exposure. Climate change is threatening fishing species and remarkably altering fishery patterns in China Seas. Shifting fishing targets, increasing fishing efficiency, raising catch diversity, and updating fishery-related industries would be effective steps to help fisheries adapt to climate change, and adaptation strategies need to be tailored considering local realities.