In cohort studies, it can be infeasible to collect specimens on an entire cohort. For example, to estimate sensitivity of multiple Multi-Cancer Detection (MCD) assays, we desire an extra 80mL of cell-free DNA (cfDNA) blood, but this much extra blood is too expensive for us to collect on everyone. We propose a novel epidemiologic study design that efficiently oversamples those at highest baseline disease risk from whom to collect specimens, to increase the number of future cases with cfDNA blood collection. The variance reduction ratio from our risk-based subsample versus a simple random (sub)sample (SRS) depends primarily on the ratio of risk model sensitivity to the fraction of the cohort selected for specimen collection subject to constraining the risk model specificity. In a simulation where we chose 34% of Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Screening Trial cohort at highest risk of lung cancer for cfDNA blood collection, we could enrich the number of lung cancers 2.42-fold and the standard deviation of lung-cancer MCD sensitivity was 31-33% reduced versus SRS. Risk-based collection of specimens on a subsample of the cohort could be a feasible and efficient approach to collecting extra specimens for molecular epidemiology.

UNASSIGNED: Tubulointerstitial damage is a feature of early chronic kidney disease (CKD), but current clinical tests capture it poorly. Urine biomarkers of tubulointerstitial health may identify risk of CKD.
UNASSIGNED: Prospective cohort (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC]) and case-cohort (Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis [MESA] and Reasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke [REGARDS]).
UNASSIGNED: Adults with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) ≥60 mL/min/1.73 m2 and without diabetes in the ARIC, REGARDS, and MESA studies.
UNASSIGNED: Baseline urine monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1), alpha-1-microglobulin (α1m), kidney injury molecule-1, epidermal growth factor, and chitinase-3-like protein 1.
UNASSIGNED: Incident CKD or end-stage kidney disease.
UNASSIGNED: Multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression for each cohort; meta-analysis of results from all 3 cohorts.
UNASSIGNED: 872 ARIC participants (444 cases of incident CKD), 636 MESA participants (158 cases), and 924 REGARDS participants (488 cases) were sampled. Across cohorts, mean age ranged from 60 ± 10 to 63 ± 8 years, and baseline eGFR ranged from 88 ± 13 to 91 ± 14 mL/min/1.73 m2. In ARIC, higher concentrations of urine MCP-1, α1m, and kidney injury molecule-1 were associated with incident CKD. In MESA, higher concentration of urine MCP-1 and lower concentration of epidermal growth factor were each associated with incident CKD. In REGARDS, none of the biomarkers were associated with incident CKD. In meta-analysis of all 3 cohorts, each 2-fold increase α1m concentration was associated with incident CKD (HR, 1.19; 95% CI, 1.08-1.31).
UNASSIGNED: Observational design susceptible to confounding; competing risks during long follow-up period; meta-analysis limited to 3 cohorts.
UNASSIGNED: In 3 combined cohorts of adults without prevalent CKD or diabetes, higher urine α1m concentration was independently associated with incident CKD. 4 biomarkers were associated with incident CKD in at least 1 of the cohorts when analyzed individually. Kidney tubule health markers might inform CKD risk independent of eGFR and albuminuria.
This study analyzed 3 cohorts (ARIC, MESA, and REGARDS) of adults without diabetes or prevalent chronic kidney disease (CKD) to determine the associations of 5 urinary biomarkers of kidney tubulointerstitial health with incident CKD, independent of traditional measures of kidney health. Meta-analysis of results from all 3 cohorts suggested that higher baseline levels of urine alpha-1-microglobulin were associated with incident CKD at follow-up. Results from individual cohorts suggested that in addition to alpha-1-microglobulin, monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, kidney injury molecule-1, and epidermal growth factor may also be associated with the development of CKD. These findings underscore the importance of kidney tubule interstitial health in defining risk of CKD independent of creatinine and urine albumin.

BACKGROUND: Care for injured patients in England is provided by inclusive regional trauma networks. Ambulance services use triage tools to identify patients with major trauma who would benefit from expedited Major Trauma Centre (MTC) care. However, there has been no investigation of triage performance, despite its role in ensuring effective and efficient MTC care. This study aimed to investigate the accuracy of prehospital major trauma triage in representative English trauma networks.
METHODS: A diagnostic case-cohort study was performed between November 2019 and February 2020 in 4 English regional trauma networks as part of the Major Trauma Triage Study (MATTS). Consecutive patients with acute injury presenting to participating ambulance services were included, together with all reference standard positive cases, and matched to data from the English national major trauma database. The index test was prehospital provider triage decision making, with a positive result defined as patient transport with a pre-alert call to the MTC. The primary reference standard was a consensus definition of serious injury that would benefit from expedited major trauma centre care. Secondary analyses explored different reference standards and compared theoretical triage tool accuracy to real-life triage decisions.
RESULTS: The complete-case case-cohort sample consisted of 2,757 patients, including 959 primary reference standard positive patients. The prevalence of major trauma meeting the primary reference standard definition was 3.1% (n=54/1,722, 95% CI 2.3 - 4.0). Observed prehospital provider triage decisions demonstrated overall sensitivity of 46.7% (n=446/959, 95% CI 43.5-49.9) and specificity of 94.5% (n=1,703/1,798, 95% CI 93.4-95.6) for the primary reference standard. There was a clear trend of decreasing sensitivity and increasing specificity from younger to older age groups. Prehospital provider triage decisions commonly differed from the theoretical triage tool result, with ambulance service clinician judgement resulting in higher specificity.
CONCLUSIONS: Prehospital decision making for injured patients in English trauma networks demonstrated high specificity and low sensitivity, consistent with the targets for cost-effective triage defined in previous economic evaluations. Actual triage decisions differed from theoretical triage tool results, with a decreasing sensitivity and increasing specificity from younger to older ages.

The case-cohort design obtains complete covariate data only on cases and on a random sample (the subcohort) of the entire cohort. Subsequent publications described the use of stratification and weight calibration to increase efficiency of estimates of Cox model log-relative hazards, and there has been some work estimating pure risk. Yet there are few examples of these options in the medical literature, and we could not find programs currently online to analyze these various options. We therefore present a unified approach and R software to facilitate such analyses. We used influence functions adapted to the various design and analysis options together with variance calculations that take the two-phase sampling into account. This work clarifies when the widely used \"robust\" variance estimate of Barlow (Biometrics 50:1064-1072, 1994) is appropriate. The corresponding R software, CaseCohortCoxSurvival, facilitates analysis with and without stratification and/or weight calibration, for subcohort sampling with or without replacement. We also allow for phase-two data to be missing at random for stratified designs. We provide inference not only for log-relative hazards in the Cox model, but also for cumulative baseline hazards and covariate-specific pure risks. We hope these calculations and software will promote wider use of more efficient and principled design and analysis options for case-cohort studies.

BACKGROUND: Limited evidence suggests that antimony induces vascular inflammation and oxidative stress and may play a role in cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, few studies have examined whether environmental antimony from sources other than tobacco smoking is related with CVD risk. The general population may be exposed through air, drinking water, and food that contains antimony from natural and anthropogenic sources, such as mining, coal combustion, and manufacturing.
OBJECTIVE: To examine the association of urine antimony with incident acute myocardial infarction (AMI), heart failure, and stroke among people who never smoked tobacco.
METHODS: Between 1993 and 1997, the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health (DCH) cohort enrolled participants (ages 50-64 years), including n = 19,394 participants who reported never smoking at baseline. Among these never smokers, we identified incident cases of AMI (N = 809), heart failure (N = 958), and stroke (N = 534) using the Danish National Patient Registry. We also randomly selected a subcohort of 600 men and 600 women. We quantified urine antimony concentrations in samples provided at enrollment. We used modified Cox proportional hazards models to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (HR) for each incident CVD outcome in relation to urine antimony, statistically adjusted for creatinine. We used a separate prospective cohort, the San Luis Valley Diabetes Study (SLVDS), to replicate these results.
RESULTS: In the DCH cohort, urine antimony concentrations were positively associated with rates of AMI and heart failure (HR = 1.52; 95%CI = 1.12, 2.08 and HR = 1.58; 95% CI = 1.15, 2.18, respectively, comparing participants in the highest (>0.09 µg/L) with the lowest quartile (<0.02 µg/L) of antimony). In the SLVDS cohort, urinary antimony was positively associated with AMI, but not heart failure.
CONCLUSIONS: Among this sample of Danish people who never smoked, we found that low levels of urine antimony are associated with incident CVD. These results were partially confirmed in a smaller US cohort.

Sub-cohort sampling designs such as a case-cohort study play a key role in studying biomarker-disease associations due to their cost effectiveness. Time-to-event outcome is often the focus in cohort studies, and the research goal is to assess the association between the event risk and risk factors. In this paper, we propose a novel goodness-of-fit two-phase sampling design for time-to-event outcomes when some covariates (e.g., biomarkers) can only be measured on a subgroup of study subjects.
Assuming that an external model, which can be the well-established risk models such as the Gail model for breast cancer, Gleason score for prostate cancer, and Framingham risk models for heart diseases, or built from preliminary data, is available to relate the outcome and complete covariates, we propose to oversample subjects with worse goodness-of-fit (GOF) based on an external survival model and time-to-event. With the cases and controls sampled using the GOF two-phase design, the inverse sampling probability weighting method is used to estimate the log hazard ratio of both incomplete and complete covariates. We conducted extensive simulations to evaluate the efficiency gain of our proposed GOF two-phase sampling designs over case-cohort study designs.
Through extensive simulations based on a dataset from the New York University Women\'s Health Study, we showed that the proposed GOF two-phase sampling designs were unbiased and generally had higher efficiency compared to the standard case-cohort study designs.
In cohort studies with rare outcomes, an important design question is how to select informative subjects to reduce sampling costs while maintaining statistical efficiency. Our proposed goodness-of-fit two-phase design provides efficient alternatives to standard case-cohort designs for assessing the association between time-to-event outcome and risk factors. This method is conveniently implemented in standard software.

Because post-polypectomy surveillance uses a growing proportion of colonoscopy capacity, more targeted surveillance is warranted. We therefore compared surveillance burden and cancer detection using 3 different adenoma classification systems.
In a case-cohort study among individuals who had adenomas removed between 1993 and 2007, we included 675 individuals with colorectal cancer (cases) diagnosed a median of 5.6 years after adenoma removal and 906 randomly selected individuals (subcohort). We compared colorectal cancer incidence among high- and low-risk individuals defined according to the traditional (high-risk: diameter ≥10 mm, high-grade dysplasia, villous growth pattern, or 3 or more adenomas), European Society of Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (ESGE) 2020 (high-risk: diameter ≥10 mm, high-grade dysplasia, or 5 or more adenomas), and novel (high-risk: diameter ≥20 mm or high-grade dysplasia) classification systems. For the different classification systems, we calculated the number of individuals recommended frequent surveillance colonoscopy and estimated number of delayed cancer diagnoses.
Four hundred and thirty individuals with adenomas (52.7%) were high risk based on the traditional classification, 369 (45.2%) were high risk based on the ESGE 2020 classification, and 220 (27.0%) were high risk based on the novel classification. Using the traditional, ESGE 2020, and novel classifications, the colorectal cancer incidences per 100,000 person-years were 479, 552, and 690 among high-risk individuals, and 123, 124, and 179 among low-risk individuals, respectively. Compared with the traditional classification, the number of individuals who needed frequent surveillance was reduced by 13.9% and 44.2%, respectively, and 1 (3.4%) and 7 (24.1%) cancer diagnoses were delayed using the ESGE 2020 and novel classifications.
Using the ESGE 2020 and novel risk classifications will substantially reduce resources needed for colonoscopy surveillance after adenoma removal.

Several metabolite markers are independently associated with incident ischemic stroke. However, prior studies have not accounted for intercorrelated metabolite networks. We used exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to determine if metabolite factors were associated with incident ischemic stroke. Metabolites (n = 162) were measured in a case-control cohort nested in the REasons for Geographic and Racial Differences in Stroke (REGARDS) study, which included 1,075 ischemic stroke cases and 968 random cohort participants. Cox models were adjusted for age, gender, race, and age-race interaction (base model) and further adjusted for the Framingham stroke risk factors (fully adjusted model). EFA identified fifteen metabolite factors, each representing a well-defined metabolic pathway. Of these, factor 3, a gut microbiome metabolism factor, was associated with an increased risk of stroke in the base (hazard ratio per one-unit standard deviation, HR = 1.23; 95%CI = 1.15-1.31; P = 1.98 × 10-10) and fully adjusted models (HR = 1.13; 95%CI = 1.06-1.21; P = 4.49 × 10-4). The highest tertile had a 45% increased risk relative to the lowest (HR = 1.45; 95%CI = 1.25-1.70; P = 2.24 × 10-6). Factor 3 was also associated with the Southern diet pattern, a dietary pattern previously linked to increased stroke risk in REGARDS (β = 0.11; 95%CI = 0.03-0.18; P = 8.75 × 10-3). These findings highlight the role of diet and gut microbial metabolism in relation to incident ischemic stroke.

Effective prevention and risk prediction are important for peripheral artery disease (PAD) due to its poor prognosis and the huge disease burden it produces. Circulating amino acids (AA) and their metabolites may serve as biomarkers of PAD risk, but they have been scarcely investigated. The objective was to prospectively analyze the associations of baseline levels of plasma AA (and their pathways) with subsequent risk of PAD and the potential effect modification by a nutritional intervention with the Mediterranean diet (MedDiet). A matched case-control study was nested in the PREDIMED trial, in which participants were randomized to three arms: MedDiet with tree nut supplementation group, MedDiet with extra-virgin olive oil (EVOO) supplementation group or control group (low-fat diet). One hundred and sixty-seven PAD cases were matched with 250 controls. Plasma AA was measured with liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry at the Broad Institute. Baseline tryptophan, serine and threonine were inversely associated with PAD (ORfor 1 SD increase = 0.78 (0.61-0.99); 0.67 (0.51-0.86) and 0.75 (0.59-0.95), respectively) in a multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression model. The kynurenine/tryptophan ratio was directly associated with PAD (ORfor 1 SD increase = 1.50 (1.14-1.98)). The nutritional intervention with the MedDiet+nuts modified the association between threonine and PAD (p-value interaction = 0.018) compared with the control group. However, subjects allocated to the MedDiet+EVOO group were protected against PAD independently of baseline threonine. Plasma tryptophan, kynurenine/tryptophan ratio, serine and threonine might serve as early biomarkers of future PAD in subjects at a high risk of cardiovascular disease. The MedDiet supplemented with EVOO exerted a protective effect, regardless of baseline levels of threonine.

Night shift work may acutely disrupt the circadian rhythm, with possible carcinogenic effects. Prostate cancer has few established risk factors though night shift work, a probable human carcinogen, may increase the risk. We aimed to study the association between night shift work and chlorinated degreasing agents (CDAs) as possible endocrine disrupters in relation to aggressive prostate cancer as verified malignancies.
We conducted a case-cohort study on 299 aggressive prostate cancer cases and 2056 randomly drawn non-cases in the Norwegian Offshore Petroleum Workers cohort (1965-98) with linkage to the Cancer Registry of Norway (1953-2019). Work history was recorded as years with day, night, and rollover (rotating) shift work, and CDA exposure was assessed with expert-made job-exposure matrices. Weighted Cox regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for aggressive prostate cancer, adjusted for education and year of first employment, stratified by 10-year birth cohorts, and with 10, 15, and 20 years of exposure lag periods.
Compared with day work only, an increased hazard of aggressive prostate cancer (HR = 1.86, 95% CI 1.18-2.91; P-trend = 0.046) was found in workers exposed to ≥19.5 years of rollover shift work. This persisted with longer lag periods (HR = 1.90, 95% CI 0.92-3.95; P-trend = 0.007). The exposure-hazard curve for a non-linear model increased linearly (HRs ≥1.00) for 18-26 years of rollover shift work. No association was found with CDA exposure.
Long-term exposure to rollover shift work may increase the hazard of aggressive prostate cancer in offshore petroleum workers.