丰度估计通常是受威胁和其他受管理人口的保护和监测计划的目标。虽然通过捕获-标记-再捕获或空间明确的捕获-再捕获进行丰度估计现在很普遍,对于北方驯鹿(Rangifertarandus)等物种来说,这种方法在后勤上具有挑战性,而且价格昂贵,居住在偏远地区,广泛分散,并以低密度存在。幸运的是,最近开发的“近亲标记-再捕获”(CKMR)框架,它使用样本中获得的亲属对的数量来生成丰度估计,消除了对多个采样事件的需要。因此,一些驯鹿经理有兴趣使用这种方法从一个单一的,驯鹿种群的非侵入性采样事件。我们使用现实的北方驯鹿人口比率和人口规模进行了一项模拟研究,以评估人口规模和所调查人口比例如何影响基于CKMR的单调查丰度估计的准确性和准确性。我们的结果表明,当采样非常小的人口比例时,丰度估计是有偏差和高度不精确的,无论人口大小。然而,人口规模越大,所需的调查人口比例越小,以产生准确和合理准确的估计。此外,我们还提供了一个案例研究,其中我们使用CKMR框架为贾斯珀国家公园的小驯鹿种群生成年度女性丰度估计,艾伯塔省,加拿大,从2006年到2015年,并将其与现有的基于捕获标记-再捕获的估计值进行比较。基于CKMR的年度丰度估计的准确性和准确性均因年份而异,并且对产生母子对的成对亲属关系比较的比例敏感。一起来看,我们的研究表明,对于小驯鹿种群,可以从单个采样事件中生成基于CKMR的丰度估计,只要可以实现足够的采样强度。
Abundance estimation is frequently an objective of conservation and monitoring initiatives for threatened and other managed populations. While abundance estimation via capture-mark-recapture or spatially explicit capture-recapture is now common, such approaches are logistically challenging and expensive for species such as boreal
caribou (Rangifer tarandus), which inhabit remote regions, are widely dispersed, and exist at low densities. Fortunately, the recently developed \'close-kin mark-recapture\' (CKMR) framework, which uses the number of kin pairs obtained within a sample to generate an abundance estimate, eliminates the need for multiple sampling events. As a result, some
caribou managers are interested in using this method to generate an abundance estimate from a single, non-invasive sampling event for
caribou populations. We conducted a simulation study using realistic boreal
caribou demographic rates and population sizes to assess how population size and the proportion of the population surveyed impact the accuracy and precision of single-survey CKMR-based abundance estimates. Our results indicated that abundance estimates were biased and highly imprecise when very small proportions of the population were sampled, regardless of the population size. However, the larger the population size, the smaller the required proportion of the population surveyed to generate both accurate and reasonably precise estimates. Additionally, we also present a case study in which we used the CKMR framework to generate annual female abundance estimates for a small
caribou population in Jasper National Park, Alberta, Canada, from 2006 to 2015 and compared them to existing published capture-mark-recapture-based estimates. Both the accuracy and precision of the annual CKMR-based abundance estimates varied across years and were sensitive to the proportion of pairwise kinship comparisons which yielded a mother-offspring pair. Taken together, our study demonstrates that it is possible to generate CKMR-based abundance estimates from a single sampling event for small caribou populations, so long as a sufficient sampling intensity can be achieved.