BACKGROUND: The long-term health-economic consequences of acute stroke are typically extrapolated from short-term outcomes observed in different studies, using models based on assumptions about longer-term morbidity and mortality. Inconsistency in these assumptions and the methods of extrapolation can create difficulties when comparing estimates of life-time cost-effectiveness of stroke care interventions.
OBJECTIVE: To develop a long-term model consisting of a set of equations to estimate the life-time effects of stroke care interventions to promote consistency in extrapolation of short-term outcomes.
METHODS: Data about further admissions and mortality was provided for acute stroke patients discharged between 2013 and 2014 from a large English service. This was combined with data from UK life tables to create a set of parametric equations in a model that use age, sex, and modified Rankin Scores to predict the life-time risk of mortality and secondary care resource utilisation including ED attendances, non-elective admissions, and elective admissions. A cohort of 1,509 (male 51%; mean age 74) stroke patients had median follow-up of seven years and represented 7,111 post-discharge patient years. A logistic model estimated mortality within twelve months of discharge and a Gompertz model was used over the remainder of the lifetime. Hospital attendances were modelled using a Weibull distribution. Non-elective and elective bed days were both modelled using a log-logistic distribution.
RESULTS: Mortality risk increased with age, dependency, and male sex. Although the overall pattern was similar for resource utilisation, there were different variations according to dependency and gender for ED attendances and non-elective/elective admissions. For example, 65-year-old women with a discharge mRS of 1 would gain an extra 6.75 life years compared to 65-year-old women with a discharge mRS of 3. Over their lifetime, 65-year-old women with a discharge mRS of 1 would experience 0.09 less ED attendances, 2.12 less non-elective bed days and 1.28 additional elective bed days than 65-year-old women with a discharge mRS of 3.
CONCLUSIONS: Using long-term follow-up publicly available data from a large clinical cohort, this new model promotes standardised extrapolation of key outcomes over the life course, and potentially can improve the real-world accuracy and comparison of long-term cost-effectiveness estimates for stroke care interventions.
UNASSIGNED: Data is available upon reasonable request from third parties.

BACKGROUND: Having previously shown headache disorders to be prevalent in Mongolia, here we elaborate on headache as a public-health concern in this country, reporting symptom burden and headache-attributed impaired participation at individual and societal levels, and conducting a health-care needs assessment.
METHODS: The study followed the standardized methodology developed by the Global Campaign against Headache, generating a representative general-population sample through multi-level randomized cluster sampling. Participants aged 18-65 years were interviewed at unannounced household visits by interviewers administering the HARDSHIP questionnaire. Symptom burden was established through questions on frequency, duration and intensity of headache, with proportion of time in ictal state calculated from frequency and duration. Individual impaired participation was established through the HALT questionnaire, enquiring into lost time from paid and household work and from leisure activities. Symptom burden and impaired participation yesterday were also assessed in those reporting headache yesterday. Population-level estimates were derived by factoring in prevalence.
RESULTS: The total sample included 2,043 participants. Those reporting any headache in the last year (n = 1,351) spent, on average, 9.7% of all their time with headache, losing 1.3 workdays and 2.4 household days/3 months. These losses were considerably higher among those with probable medication-overuse headache (37.5%, 3.5 workdays, 6.7 household days) or other headache on ≥ 15 days/month (H15+) (21.9%, 2.4 workdays, 5.1 household days). At population-level (including those with and without headache), 6.2-7.4% of all time was spent with headache, 3.1% with H15+; 0.8 workdays and 1.4 household days/person/3 months were lost to headache, 0.3 workdays and 0.6 household days to migraine (the biggest contributor of all headache types). Our needs assessment estimated that one third (33.2%) of the adult population of Mongolia have headache (mostly migraine or H15+) likely to benefit from health care.
CONCLUSIONS: This first population-based study on headache burden in Mongolia shows high levels of individual and societal burden, with H15 + the cause of greater burden at population level than migraine and TTH combined. Migraine, however, has the biggest impact on the nation\'s productivity. From a purely economic perspective, Mongolia, with limited health resources, would probably be best served by focusing on mitigating migraine-attributed burden.

BACKGROUND: Leukemia is the tenth most common cause of cancer death worldwide and one of the most important causes of disability. To understand the current status and changing trends of the disease burden of leukemia at the global, regional, and national levels, and to provide a scientific basis for the development of leukemia prevention and treatment strategies.
METHODS: Based on open data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (GBD 2019), R software was used to calculate estimated annual percentage changes to estimate trends in the age-standardized incidence (ASIR) and the age-standardized disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate due to leukemia and its major subtypes from 1990 to 2019.
RESULTS: In 2019, globally, the number of incidences and DALYs of leukemia were 643.6 × 103 (587.0 × 103, 699.7 × 103) and 11,657.5 × 103 (10529.1 × 103, 12700.7 × 103), respectively. The ASIR (estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) = -0.37, 95%UI -0.46 to -0.28) and the age-standardized DALY rate (EAPC = -1.72, 95%UI -1.80 to -1.65) of leukemia showed a decreasing trend from 1990 to 2019. The APC model analysis showed that the age effect of leukemia risk was a \"U\"-shaped distribution of relative risk (RR) with increasing age from 1990 to 2019, globally. The time effect was an increase in incidence rate with increasing years but a decrease in DALY rate with increasing years. The cohort effects of both incidence and DALY rates tended to increase and then decrease with the development of the birth cohort. In 1990 and 2019, smoking, high body-mass index, occupational exposure to benzene, and occupational exposure to formaldehyde were risk factors for DALY in leukemia, especially in areas with high SDI.
CONCLUSIONS: From 1990 to 2019, the disease burden of leukemia showed a decreasing trend, but it is worth noting that its overall severity is still very high. The disease burden of leukemia varies greatly from region to region, and exclusive strategies for the prevention and treatment of leukemia should be developed according to the economic and cultural development of each region.

This study outlines asthma burden trends across age, sex, regions and risk factors in \'Belt and Road\' (B&R) countries from 1990 to 2019 using the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 data. Incidence, mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and risk factors for asthma were measured. India, China and Indonesia bore the heaviest burden in 2019. Despite the significant decline in the average annual percent change for age-standardized mortality and years of life lost from 1990 to 2019, increases were observed in several East Asian, Central Asian, North African and Middle Eastern countries between 2010 and 2019. For both sexes, YLDs decreased in most B&R countries but increased in Montenegro, Saudi Arabia, Armenia, Vietnam and Oman. YLDs in Georgia, the United Arab Emirates and Albania increased in males but decreased in females. YLDs increased for those aged <15 years in Central Asia and Europe, while China\'s 50-74-year age group showed the lowest YLD change. High body mass index (BMI) led to increased YLDs in East, Central and Southeast Asia; North Africa; and the Middle East. Conclusively, asthma burden varies significantly by country. Tailoring control efforts to specific regions, sex and high BMI could enhance asthma management.

BACKGROUND: Liver cancer (LC) is frequently preceded by cirrhosis and poses a significant public health challenge in the United States (US). Recent decades have seen notable shifts in the epidemiological patterns of LC, yet national data guiding the optimal allocation of resources and preventive efforts remain limited. This study aims to investigate the current trends, risk factors, and outcomes of LC in the US.
METHODS: This study utilized the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) dataset to collect data on the annual incident cases, deaths, Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs), age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized death rates, and age-standardized DALY rates of primary LC and its etiologies and risk factors, between 1990 and 2019. Percentage changes in incident cases, DALYs, and deaths and the estimated annual percentage change (EAPC) in ASIR and deaths rates of LC were calculated to conduct temporal analysis. Linear regression was applied for the calculation of EAPCs. Correlations of EAPC with socio-demographic index (SDI) were separately evaluated by Pearson correlation analyses.
RESULTS: We observed a marked increase in the ASIR of LC, increasing from 2.22 (95% CI: 2.15-2.27) per 100,000 people in 1990 to 5.23 (95% CI: 4.28-6.29) per 100,000 people in 2019, a percentage change of 135.4%. LC due to hepatitis C followed by alcohol use were the primary factors driving this increase. The ASIR and age-standardized death rates of LC showed a significant average annual increase of 3.0% (95% CI: 2.7-3.2) and 2.6% (95% CI: 2.5-2.8), respectively. There was a significant negative correlation between the SDI and the EAPC in ASIR (ρ = -0.40, p = 0.004) and age-standardized death rates (ρ = -0.46, p < 0.001). In 2019, drug and alcohol use, followed by elevated body mass index (BMI) were the primary risk factors for age-standardized DALY rates attributable to LC.
CONCLUSIONS: The increased burden of LC in the US highlights the need for interventions. This is particularly important given that LC is mostly influenced by modifiable risk factors, such as drug and alcohol use, and elevated BMI. Our findings highlight the urgent need for public health interventions targeting socio-economic, lifestyle, and modifiable risk factors to mitigate the escalating burden of LC.

Globally, cancer is the second leading cause of death, with a growing burden also observed in Kazakhstan. This study evaluates the burden of common cancers in Almaty, Kazakhstan\'s major city, from 2017 to 2021, utilizing data from the Information System of the Ministry of Health. In Kazakhstan, most common cancers among men include lung, stomach, and prostate cancer, while breast, cervical, and colorectal cancers are predominant among women. Employing measures like disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), we found that selected cancer types accounted for a total DALY burden of 25,016.60 in 2021, with mortality contributing more than disability (95.2% vs. 4.7%) with the ratio of non-fatal to fatal outcomes being 1.4 times higher in women than in men. The share of non-fatal burden (YLD) proportion within DALYs increased for almost all selected cancer types, except stomach and cervical cancer over the observed period in Almaty. Despite the overall increase in cancer burden observed during the time period, a downward trend in specific cancers suggests the efficacy of implemented cancer control strategies. Comparison with global trends highlights the significance of targeted interventions. This analysis underscores the need for continuous comprehensive cancer control strategies in Almaty and Kazakhstan, including vaccination against human papillomavirus, stomach cancer screening programs, and increased cancer awareness initiatives.

BACKGROUND: Mexico is among the countries with the highest mortality rates by firearms worldwide. We aimed to analyse the trend in the burden of firearm violence (FV) by age and sex in Mexico at a national and subnational level, and the association between this burden and the Sociodemographic Index.
METHODS: We used estimates from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD)-2019 study for the analysis of FV mortality, premature mortality and disability for all available age-groups and by sex. The GBD data separates FV into three categories-interpersonal violence from firearms, unintentional injuries from firearms and self-harm from firearms. We used a joinpoint regression analysis to analyse the temporal trends of the FV burden.
RESULTS: FV exhibited a non-significant increase. By cause, there was a significant increase in the burden of interpersonal violence from firearms, a non-significant decrease in the burden of self-harm from firearms and a significant decrease in the burden of unintentional injuries from firearms. Most of the FV burden is attributed to interpersonal violence from firearms. Almost the entirety of the burden of FV results from premature mortality. The incidence of FV disability adjusted life years (DALYs) was significantly higher among males than females, and was most concentrated in males aged 20-44 and females aged 15-49. Significant heterogeneity in FV DALY trends was observed at the subnational level.
CONCLUSIONS: These results may help to better understand the burden of FV and help the design and implementation of national and local preventive policies.

We aimed to quantify the risk, mortality, and burden of suicide among autistic persons. We searched PubMed, Embase, and PsycINFO on 5th April 2023 for sources reporting the relative risk (RR) of suicide or suicide attempt among autistic persons (PROSPERO registration: CRD42021265313). Autism spectrum prevalence and suicide mortality and years of life lost (YLLs), were sourced from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021. RRs pooled via meta-regression and health metrics estimates were used to estimate the excess suicide mortality and YLLs among autistic persons. We sourced 983 unique studies of which ten studies met inclusion criteria, consisting of 10.4 million persons. The pooled RR for suicide for autistic persons was 2·85 (95% UI: 2·05-4·03), which was significantly higher for autistic females than autistic males. No evidence of publication bias was detected via inspection of funnel plot and Egger\'s test. Globally, we estimated 13 400 excess suicide deaths among autistic persons in 2021, equating to 1·8% of all suicide deaths and 621 000 excess YLLs. Studies were limited in number and geographical coverage. Effective suicide prevention strategies for autistic persons may substantially reduce the fatal burden of suicides globally and reduce the health burden experienced within this population.

BACKGROUND: The burden of disease based on disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) is one of the internationally accepted metrics for assessing the impact of a disease or injury on population health. This study aimed to provide evidence of the burden of COVID-19 on health in Iran based on hospital-level data from the Iran Health Insurance Organization (IHIO), which covers almost half of the country\'s population.
METHODS: The data of all IHIO enrollees who were referred to hospitals across the country from the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic (February 2020) to December 30, 2021, with assigned diagnosis codes of COVID-19, were extracted from the hospital information processing system. The DALYs due to COVID-19 were estimated using the standard approach of the World Health Organization and the European Burden of Disease Network guideline.
RESULTS: In the years 2020 and 2021, among a population of about 42 million people, 1,040,367 individuals were admitted to the hospital due to COVID-19 infection, of whom 73% were hospitalized (760,963 patients). The total estimated DALYs for these two years were 665,823 and 928,393, respectively (1,603 and 2,234 per 100,000 population). 99.7% of DALYs were attributed to years of life lost due to premature death (YLLs). The share of the disease burden in the age groups of under 20 years, 20-49 years, 50-80 years, and over 80 years was 6.6%, 26.4%, 58.4%, and 8.6%, respectively.
CONCLUSIONS: Based on the hospital-level data estimates, COVID-19 has had a significant burden on health in Iran. COVID-19 was identified as the fifth leading cause of disease burden in Iran during the study period, ranking after cardiovascular diseases, psychological disorders, neoplasms, and musculoskeletal disorders. Additionally, COVID-19 was the third major cause of death, following cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms. Policymaking and the implementation of comprehensive programs to enhance the response of the health system and society to outbreaks of emerging and re-emerging infectious diseases are of utmost importance.

UNASSIGNED: Blood transfusion is an important mode of infectious disease transmission in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). This study describes a model to determine the prevalence of transfusion-transmitted infections (TTIs) and the associated burden of disease.
UNASSIGNED: A five-step model was developed to determine the TTI-related burden of disease measured by disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Uganda was selected as the study country.
UNASSIGNED: Approximately 298,266 units of blood were transfused in Uganda in 2019, yielding an estimated TTI incidence of 6,858 new TTIs (2.3% of transfused units) and prevalence of 19,141 TTIs (6.4% of transfused units). The total burden of disease is 2,903 DALYs, consisting of approximately 2,590 years of life lost (YLLs), and 313 years lived with disability (YLDs).
UNASSIGNED: The incidence and prevalence of TTIs and the associated burden of disease can be calculated on a local and national level. The model can be applied by health ministries to estimate the impact of TTIs in order to develop blood safety strategies to reduce the burden of disease.