Besag model

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本文旨在扩展Besag模型,在疾病制图中广泛使用的贝叶斯空间模型,不规则晶格型数据的非平稳空间模型。目标是提高模型捕获复杂空间依赖模式的能力并提高可解释性。所提出的模型使用多个精度参数,考虑不同子区域空间依赖的不同强度。我们在灵活的局部精度参数之前得出联合惩罚复杂度,以防止过度拟合并确保以用户定义的速率收缩到固定模型。所提出的方法可以用作在时间等其他域上发展各种其他非平稳效应的基础。随附的R包fbesag为读者提供了立即使用和应用所需的工具。我们通过对巴西登革热风险进行建模来说明该提案的新颖性,其中固定空间假设失败,并且在考虑空间非固定时估计有趣的风险概况。此外,我们模拟了巴西不同的死亡原因,我们使用新模型来研究这些原因的空间平稳性。
    This paper aims to extend the Besag model, a widely used Bayesian spatial model in disease mapping, to a non-stationary spatial model for irregular lattice-type data. The goal is to improve the model\'s ability to capture complex spatial dependence patterns and increase interpretability. The proposed model uses multiple precision parameters, accounting for different intensities of spatial dependence in different sub-regions. We derive a joint penalized complexity prior to the flexible local precision parameters to prevent overfitting and ensure contraction to the stationary model at a user-defined rate. The proposed methodology can be used as a basis for the development of various other non-stationary effects over other domains such as time. An accompanying R package fbesag equips the reader with the necessary tools for immediate use and application. We illustrate the novelty of the proposal by modeling the risk of dengue in Brazil, where the stationary spatial assumption fails and interesting risk profiles are estimated when accounting for spatial non-stationary. Additionally, we model different causes of death in Brazil, where we use the new model to investigate the spatial stationarity of these causes.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    尽管低出生体重(LBW)的患病率随着时间的推移有所下降,它作为孟加拉国公共卫生问题的持续重要性仍然显而易见。低出生体重被认为是导致婴儿死亡率的一个因素,长期的健康并发症,以及对非传染性疾病的脆弱性。本研究利用2012-2013年和2019年进行的多指标类集调查(MICS)的全国代表性数据来探讨与出生体重相关的因素。出生体重数据建模考虑了因素之间的相互作用,数据中的聚类,和空间相关性。生成区级地图以识别LBW的高风险区域。平均出生体重略有增加,从2012-2013年的2.93公斤上升到2019年的2.96公斤。这项研究采用了回归树,一种流行的机器学习算法,辨别出生体重潜在决定因素之间的基本相互作用。各种模型的发现,包括固定效应,混合效应,和空间依赖模型,强调产妇年龄等因素的重要性,户主的教育,产前保健,很少有数据驱动的相互作用影响出生体重。特定地区的地图显示,西南地区和选定的北部地区的平均出生体重较低,在两个调查期间坚持。考虑层次结构和空间自相关,提高了模型性能,特别是在拟合最近一轮调查数据时。该研究旨在通过利用机器学习技术和回归模型来识别需要高度关注的弱势儿童群体,从而为地区一级的政策制定和有针对性的干预措施提供信息。
    Despite a decrease in the prevalence of low birth weight (LBW) over time, its ongoing significance as a public health concern in Bangladesh remains evident. Low birth weight is believed to be a contributing factor to infant mortality, prolonged health complications, and vulnerability to non-communicable diseases. This study utilizes nationally representative data from the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS) conducted in 2012-2013 and 2019 to explore factors associated with birth weight. Modeling birth weight data considers interactions among factors, clustering in data, and spatial correlation. District-level maps are generated to identify high-risk areas for LBW. The average birth weight has shown a modest increase, rising from 2.93 kg in 2012-2013 to 2.96 kg in 2019. The study employs a regression tree, a popular machine learning algorithm, to discern essential interactions among potential determinants of birth weight. Findings from various models, including fixed effect, mixed effect, and spatial dependence models, highlight the significance of factors such as maternal age, household head\'s education, antenatal care, and few data-driven interactions influencing birth weight. District-specific maps reveal lower average birth weights in the southwestern region and selected northern districts, persisting across the two survey periods. Accounting for hierarchical structure and spatial autocorrelation improves model performance, particularly when fitting the most recent round of survey data. The study aims to inform policy formulation and targeted interventions at the district level by utilizing a machine learning technique and regression models to identify vulnerable groups of children requiring heightened attention.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    新型冠状病毒病(COVID-19)在短时间内以异质性模式在世界各地迅速传播。了解COVID-19传播的潜在时间和空间动态可以导致知情和及时的公共卫生政策。在本文中,我们使用时空随机模型来解释西班牙每日新确诊病例数的时空变化,意大利和德国从2020年2月下旬至2021年1月中旬。使用分层贝叶斯框架,我们发现,这三个国家的流行病的时间趋势迅速达到峰值,并在4月初开始缓慢下降,然后在11月中旬增加并达到第二个最大值。然而,在西班牙,时间趋势的下降和增加似乎显示出不同的模式,意大利和德国。
    The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has spread rapidly across the world in a short period of time and with a heterogeneous pattern. Understanding the underlying temporal and spatial dynamics in the spread of COVID-19 can result in informed and timely public health policies. In this paper, we use a spatio-temporal stochastic model to explain the temporal and spatial variations in the daily number of new confirmed cases in Spain, Italy and Germany from late February 2020 to mid January 2021. Using a hierarchical Bayesian framework, we found that the temporal trends of the epidemic in the three countries rapidly reached their peaks and slowly started to decline at the beginning of April and then increased and reached their second maximum in the middle of November. However decline and increase of the temporal trend seems to show different patterns in Spain, Italy and Germany.
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