Bayesian spatial modelling

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:由于其经济负担和关注点的变化,COVID-19大流行对各国几种女性生殖器切割(FGM)干预措施进展的潜在影响无可厚非。然而,可能性和患病率的潜在变化的幅度应使用统计学上稳健的比较研究更准确地探索和量化.在这项研究中,我们研究了尼日利亚15-49岁女性在大流行前后女性生殖器切割的可能性和患病率的差异.
    方法:我们使用先进的贝叶斯分层模型来分析多指标类集调查(MICS2021)提供的COVID-19后数据集和人口与健康调查(DHS2018)提供的COVID-19前数据。
    结果:结果表明,尽管全国女性生殖器切割患病率总体下降,异质性存在于州一级和个人/社区一级的特征。希望女性生殖器切割在社区内继续存在的妇女患病率增加了6.9%。Nasarawa的女性生殖器切割患病率增加了18.9%,而在卡杜纳,下降了近40%。
    结论:结果表明,女性生殖器切割仍然是尼日利亚的一个社会规范问题,它可能因COVID-19大流行而加剧。方法,本研究的数据和产出将有助于提供政策制定者完全根除女性生殖器切割所需的准确统计证据.
    BACKGROUND: Due to its economic burden and change of focus, there is no gainsaying of the potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on the progress of several female genital mutilation (FGM) interventions across the various countries. However, the magnitude of the potential changes in likelihood and prevalence should be more accurately explored and quantified using a statistically robust comparative study. In this study, we examined the differences in the likelihood and prevalence of FGM among 15-49 years old women before and after the pandemic in Nigeria.
    METHODS: We used advanced Bayesian hierarchical models to analyse post-COVID-19 datasets provided by the Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS 2021) and pre-COVID-19 data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS 2018).
    RESULTS: Results indicated that although there was an overall decline in FGM prevalence nationally, heterogeneities exist at state level and at individual-/community-level characteristics. There was a 6.9% increase in prevalence among women who would like FGM to continue within the community. FGM prevalence increased by 18.9% in Nasarawa, while in Kaduna there was nearly 40% decrease.
    CONCLUSIONS: Results show that FGM is still a social norm issue in Nigeria and that it may have been exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. The methods, data and outputs from this study would serve to provide accurate statistical evidence required by policymakers for complete eradication of FGM.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    痴呆症是全球主要的公共卫生问题,正日益导致老年人的发病率和死亡率。虽然研究集中在风险因素和护理提供上,目前对该疾病的空间风险模式的了解有限。在这项研究中,我们采用贝叶斯空间建模和随机偏微分方程(SPDE)方法,利用丹麦人口和健康登记的完整居住历史数据对空间风险进行建模.该研究队列包括2005年至2018年的160万65岁及以上的人。空间风险图的结果表明哥本哈根的高风险地区,南部的Jutland和Funen.个人社会经济因素和人口密度降低了丹麦高风险模式的强度。这项研究的结果要求严格检查居住地在全球老龄化人口对痴呆症的易感性中的贡献。
    Dementia is a major global public health concern that is increasingly leading to morbidity and mortality among older adults. While studies have focused on the risk factors and care provision, there is currently limited knowledge about the spatial risk pattern of the disease. In this study, we employ Bayesian spatial modelling with a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) approach to model the spatial risk using complete residential history data from the Danish population and health registers. The study cohort consisted of 1.6 million people aged 65 years and above from 2005 to 2018. The results of the spatial risk map indicate high-risk areas in Copenhagen, southern Jutland and Funen. Individual socioeconomic factors and population density reduce the intensity of high-risk patterns across Denmark. The findings of this study call for the critical examination of the contribution of place of residence in the susceptibility of the global ageing population to dementia.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    COVID-19在世界各地的出现提高了人们对用于大流行管理的地理信息系统(GIS)的兴趣。在德国,然而,大多数空间分析仍处于相对粗糙的县水平。在这项研究中,我们在AOKNordost健康保险的健康保险数据中探索了COVID-19住院的空间分布。此外,我们探讨了与COVID-19住院相关的社会人口统计学和先前存在的医疗状况.我们的结果清楚地显示了COVID-19住院的强烈空间动态。住院的主要危险因素为男性,失业,外国国籍,住在养老院.与住院相关的主要预先存在的疾病是某些传染病和寄生虫病,血液和造血器官的疾病,内分泌,营养和代谢疾病,神经系统疾病,循环系统的疾病,呼吸系统疾病,泌尿生殖系统疾病和症状,以及其他地方未分类的迹象和发现。
    The onset of COVID-19 across the world has elevated interest in geographic information systems (GIS) for pandemic management. In Germany, however, most spatial analyses remain at the relatively coarse level of counties. In this study, we explored the spatial distribution of COVID-19 hospitalizations in health insurance data of the AOK Nordost health insurance. Additionally, we explored sociodemographic and pre-existing medical conditions associated with hospitalizations for COVID-19. Our results clearly show strong spatial dynamics of COVID-19 hospitalizations. The main risk factors for hospitalization were male sex, being unemployed, foreign citizenship, and living in a nursing home. The main pre-existing diseases associated with hospitalization were certain infectious and parasitic diseases, diseases of the blood and blood-forming organs, endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases, diseases of the nervous system, diseases of the circulatory system, diseases of the respiratory system, diseases of the genitourinary and symptoms, and signs and findings not classified elsewhere.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    本研究探讨了印度地区成年男女体重不足和超重的空间格局,并确定了体重不足和超重风险同时普遍存在的微观地理位置,在考虑了人口和社会经济因素之后。
    我们依赖于BMI(体重(kg)/身高平方(m2)),衡量成年人的营养状况,2015-2016年全国家庭和健康调查。体重不足定义为<18·5kg/m2,超重定义为≥25·0kg/m2。
    我们采用贝叶斯结构加性分位数回归对体重过轻和过重负担的潜在空间结构进行建模。
    15-54岁的男性(样本量:108092)和15-49岁的女性(样本量:642002)。
    大约19·7%的男性和22·9%的女性体重不足,19·6%的男性和20·6%的女性超重。结果表明,成年人的营养不良负担在全国范围内表现出地域差异。位于中部的地区,西部和东部地区体重不足的风险较高。有证据表明,印度南部和北部超重风险较高的地区存在大量空间聚集。虽然发现了一些关于人口群体营养不良双重负担的证据,我们确定了总共66个双重负担区。
    目前的研究表明,印度成年人超重的地理负担尚未超过体重不足的地理负担,但是,在某些地区,体重不足和超重的双重负担并存,对改善营养状况提出了新的挑战,因此需要采取专门的政策举措。
    The current study explores the spatial patterns of underweight and overweight among adult men and women in districts of India and identifies the micro-geographical locations where the risks of underweight and overweight are simultaneously prevalent, after accounting for demographic and socio-economic factors.
    We relied on BMI (weight (kg)/height squared (m2)), a measure of nutritional status among adult individuals, from the 2015-2016 National Family and Health Survey. Underweight was defined as <18·5 kg/m2 and overweight as ≥25·0 kg/m2.
    We adopted Bayesian structured additive quantile regression to model the underlying spatial structure in underweight and overweight burden.
    Men aged 15-54 years (sample size: 108 092) and women aged 15-49 years (sample size: 642 002).
    About 19·7 % of men and 22·9 % of women were underweight, and 19·6 % of men and 20·6 % of women were overweight. Results indicate that malnutrition burden in adults exhibits geographical divides across the country. Districts located in the central, western and eastern regions show higher risks of underweight. There is evidence of substantial spatial clustering of districts with higher risk of overweight in southern and northern India. While finding a little evidence on double burden of malnutrition among population groups, we identified a total of sixty-six double burden districts.
    The current study demonstrates that the geographical burden of overweight in Indian adults is yet to surpass that of underweight, but the coexistence of double burden of underweight and overweight in selected regions presents a new challenge for improving nutritional status and necessitates specialised policy initiatives.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    大多数儿童癌症的病因在很大程度上是未知的。空间变化的环境因素,如交通相关的空气污染,背景辐射和农业杀虫剂可能有助于儿童癌症的发展。这项研究是首次使用居住地的精确地理代码对儿童癌症的空间疾病图谱进行调查。
    我们纳入了瑞士儿童癌症登记处的5947名儿童,这些儿童在1985-2015年期间被诊断为癌症,年龄在0-15岁之间。我们使用对数高斯Cox过程和间接标准化来模拟癌症风险,以适应年龄和诊断年份。我们研究了风险的空间变化是否可以通过模拟NO2的环境空气浓度,模拟对背景电离辐射的暴露来解释,基于地区的社会经济地位(SEP),语言区域,各州一般癌症登记的年限或城市化程度。
    对于所有儿童癌症,后位中位数相对风险(RR),与国家一级相比,不同的位置从0.83到1.13(最小到最大)。白血病的相应范围为0.96至1.09,淋巴瘤为0.90至1.13,中枢神经系统(CNS)肿瘤为0.82至1.23。考虑的协变量解释了所有癌症观察到的空间变异的72%,81%为白血病,82%为淋巴瘤,64%为CNS肿瘤。缺乏证据表明CNS肿瘤发病率与模拟暴露于背景电离辐射(每SD差异1.17;0.98-1.40的RR)和SEP(1.6;1.00-1.13)有关。
    在被调查的诊断组中,儿童中枢神经系统肿瘤表现出最大的空间变异。选定的协变量仅部分解释了观察到的CNS肿瘤的变化,表明其他环境因素也起作用。
    The aetiology of most childhood cancers is largely unknown. Spatially varying environmental factors such as traffic-related air pollution, background radiation and agricultural pesticides might contribute to the development of childhood cancer. This study is the first investigation of the spatial disease mapping of childhood cancers using exact geocodes of place of residence.
    We included 5947 children diagnosed with cancer in Switzerland during 1985-2015 at 0-15 years of age from the Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry. We modelled cancer risk using log-Gaussian Cox processes and indirect standardisation to adjust for age and year of diagnosis. We examined whether the spatial variation of risk can be explained by modelled ambient air concentration of NO2, modelled exposure to background ionising radiation, area-based socio-economic position (SEP), linguistic region, duration in years of general cancer registration in the canton or degree of urbanisation.
    For all childhood cancers combined, the posterior median relative risk (RR), compared to the national level, varied by location from 0.83 to 1.13 (min to max). Corresponding ranges were 0.96 to 1.09 for leukaemia, 0.90 to 1.13 for lymphoma, and 0.82 to 1.23 for central nervous system (CNS) tumours. The covariates considered explained 72% of the observed spatial variation for all cancers, 81% for leukaemia, 82% for lymphoma and 64% for CNS tumours. There was weak evidence of an association of CNS tumour incidence with modelled exposure to background ionising radiation (RR per SD difference 1.17; 0.98-1.40) and with SEP (1.6; 1.00-1.13).
    Of the investigated diagnostic groups, childhood CNS tumours showed the largest spatial variation. The selected covariates only partially explained the observed variation of CNS tumours suggesting that other environmental factors also play a role.
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  • 文章类型: Letter
    暂无摘要。
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