我们的目标是调查西班牙水泥生产设施附近是否可能有过量的癌症死亡率,石灰,石膏,还有氧化镁,根据工业活动的不同类别。一项生态研究旨在检查西班牙33种癌症(1997-2006年)导致的市政死亡率。人口暴露于污染是根据从城镇到工业设施的距离估算的。使用具有集成嵌套Laplace近似的空间Besag-York-Mollié回归模型进行贝叶斯推断,我们评估了设施周围5公里区域死于癌症的相对风险,根据制成品分析了工业活动类别的影响,并在每个安装的50公里半径内进行了单独分析。超过所有癌症死亡率(相对风险,95%的可信间隔)在整个这些装置附近(男性为1.04,1.01-1.07;女性为1.03,1.00-1.06),and,主要是,水泥装置附近(男性1.05、1.01-1.09)。应特别提及男女结肠直肠肿瘤的结果(男性为1.07,1.01-1.14;女性为1.10,1.03-1.16),和胸膜(1.71,1.24-2.28),腹膜(1.62,1.15-2.20),胆囊(1.21,1.02-1.42),膀胱(1.11,1.03-1.20)和胃(1.09,1.00-1.18)在所有此类装置附近的男性。我们的结果表明死于癌症的风险过高,尤其是在结肠直肠,在这些产业附近的城镇。
Our objective was to investigate whether there might be excess cancer mortality in the vicinity of Spanish installations for the production of cement, lime, plaster, and magnesium oxide, according to different categories of industrial activity. An ecologic study was designed to examine municipal mortality due to 33 types of cancer (period 1997-2006) in Spain. Population exposure to pollution was estimated on the basis of distance from town to industrial facility. Using spatial Besag-York-Mollié regression models with integrated nested Laplace approximations for Bayesian inference, we assessed the relative risk of dying from cancer in a 5-km zone around installations, analyzed the effect of category of industrial activity according to the manufactured product, and conducted individual analyses within a 50-km radius of each installation. Excess all cancer mortality (relative risk, 95% credible interval) was detected in the vicinity of these installations as a whole (1.04, 1.01-1.07 in men; 1.03, 1.00-1.06 in women), and, principally, in the vicinity of cement installations (1.05, 1.01-1.09 in men). Special mention should be made of the results for tumors of colon-rectum in both sexes (1.07, 1.01-1.14 in men; 1.10, 1.03-1.16 in women), and pleura (1.71, 1.24-2.28), peritoneum (1.62, 1.15-2.20), gallbladder (1.21, 1.02-1.42), bladder (1.11, 1.03-1.20) and stomach (1.09, 1.00-1.18) in men in the vicinity of all such installations. Our results suggest an excess risk of dying from cancer, especially in colon-rectum, in towns near these industries.