The accurate prediction of postoperative survival time of patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is important for postoperative health care. Survival analysis is a common method used to predict the occurrence time of events of interest in the medical field. At present, the mainstream survival analysis models, such as the Cox proportional risk model, should make strict assumptions about the potential random process to solve the censored data, thus potentially limiting their application in clinical practice. In this paper, we propose a novel deep multitask survival model (DMSM) to analyze HCC survival data. Specifically, DMSM transforms the traditional survival time prediction problem of patients with HCC into a survival probability prediction problem at multiple time points and applies entropy regularization and ranking loss to optimize a multitask neural network. Compared with the traditional methods of deleting censored data and strong hypothesis, DMSM makes full use of all the information in the censored data but does not need to make any assumption. In addition, we identify the risk factors affecting the prognosis of patients with HCC and visualize the importance of ranking these factors. On the basis of the analysis of a real dataset of patients with BCLC stage B HCC, experimental results on three different validation datasets show that the DMSM achieves competitive performance with concordance index of 0.779, 0.727, and 0.780 and integrated Brier score (IBS) of 0.172, 0.138, and 0.135, respectively. Our DMSM has a comparatively small standard deviation (0.002, 0.002, and 0.003) for IBS of bootstrapping 100 times. The DMSM we proposed can be utilized as an effective survival analysis model and provide an important means for the accurate prediction of postoperative survival time of patients with BCLC stage B HCC.

Background: A less effective nomogram for patients with intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) to predict overall survival (OS) is available. This study aimed to investigate the role of age-male-albumin-bilirubin-platelet (aMAP) scores in the prognosis of patients with intermediate-stage HCC and develop an aMAP score-based nomogram to predict OS. Methods: Data on newly diagnosed intermediate-stage patients with HCC at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center between January 2007 and May 2012 were retrospectively collected. Independent risk factors affecting prognosis were selected by multivariate analyses. The optimal cut-off value for the aMAP score was determined using X-tile. The survival prognostic models were presented by the nomogram. Results: For the 875 patients with intermediate-stage HCC included, the median OS was 22.2 months (95% CI 19.6-25.1). Patients were classified into three groups by X-tile plots (aMAP score < 49.42; 49.42 ≤ aMAP score < 56; aMAP score ≥ 56). Alpha-fetoprotein, lactate dehydrogenase, aMAP score, diameter of main tumor, number of intrahepatic lesions, and treatment regimen were independent risk factors for prognosis. A predicted model was constructed with a C-index of 0.70 (95% CI: 0.68-0.72) in the training goup, and its 1-, 3-, and 5-year area under the receiver operating curve were: 0.75, 0.73, and 0.72. The validation group of the C-index is 0.82. Calibration graphs showed good consistency between the actual and predicted survival rates. The decision curve analysis suggested the clinical utility of the model, which may help clinicians guide clinical decision-making. Conclusion: The aMAP score was an independent risk factor for intermediate-stage HCC. The aMAP score-based nomogram has good discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility.

OBJECTIVE: Hepatic resection for Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B (intermediate-stage) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is not recommended by BCLC treatment algorithms. We sought to develop a new prognostic model for determining appropriate treatment strategies in patients with intermediate-stage HCC.
METHODS: This single-center retrospective study included patients who underwent hepatic resection for HCC between 2000 and 2018. A total of 498 patients were classified according to the BCLC staging system (0, n=116; A, n=319; B, n=63). The predictive impact for surgical outcomes was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. Based on a survival outcome probability formula, a new predictive model was established.
RESULTS: The preoperative albumin level and platelet count were the strongest diagnostic values in patients with intermediate-stage HCC (areas under the ROC curves, AUCs: 0.710 and 0.676, respectively). Logistic regression analysis provided the albumin-platelet index [API; 156.2×albumin (g/dl)+platelet count (×109/l)] was defined as a new prognostic model for the probability of poor survival. The optimal cutoff value (781.2; AUC 0.755) divided patients with BCLC-B into B1 (>781.2, n=27) and B2 (≤781.2, n=36) categories. Patients in substage B2 had a significantly worse prognosis than patients in other stages (p<0.0001), whereas there was no difference in prognosis between patients in substage B1 and those in other stages.
CONCLUSIONS: The API stratifies prognosis in patients with intermediate-stage HCC. For subgroup B1, hepatic resection can be considered a radical treatment, even for intermediate-stage HCC.

To date, there is little knowledge about the value of laparoscopic liver resection (LLR) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) stage B. Thus, this study was performed to assess the perioperative and oncological outcomes of LLR for these patients by comparison with open liver resection (OLR). Between April 2015 and October 2018, a total of 217 resectable HCC patients with BCLC stage B were eligible for this study. Patients were divided into the LLR group and the OLR group according to different procedures. Propensity score matching (PSM) was conducted to adjust for known confounders. Short- and long-term outcomes were compared between the two groups. LLR was performed in 75 of the 217 included patients. After PSM, 72 patients with well-balanced baseline levels were enrolled into each group. Although the operative time was significantly longer in the LLR group than in the OLR group (median, 237.5 vs. 210 min, P = 0.024), the intraoperative blood loss was significantly less in the LLR group than in the OLR group (median, 200 vs. 350 ml, P = 0.005). Patients in the LLR group had fewer complications than those in the OLR group (P = 0.035). Furthermore, overall survival (OS, P = 0.827) and recurrence-free survival (RFS, P = 0.694) were comparable between the two groups. LLR for resectable HCC patients with BCLC stage B is safe and feasible in carefully selected patients and has superior perioperative outcomes and similar survival rates compared with OLR.

UNASSIGNED: We sought to develop and validate a novel prognostic model for predicting survival of patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer Stages (BCLC) stage B hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) using a machine learning approach based on random survival forests (RSF).
UNASSIGNED: We retrospectively analyzed overall survival rates of patients with BCLC stage B HCC using a training (n = 602), internal validation (n = 301), and external validation (n = 343) groups. We extracted twenty-one clinical and biochemical parameters with established strategies for preprocessing, then adopted the RSF classifier for variable selection and model development. We evaluated model performance using the concordance index (c-index) and area under the receiver operator characteristic curves (AUROC).
UNASSIGNED: RSF revealed that five parameters, namely size of the tumor, BCLC-B sub-classification, AFP level, ALB level, and number of lesions, were strong predictors of survival. These were thereafter used for model development. The established model had a c-index of 0.69, whereas AUROC for predicting survival outcomes of the first three years reached 0.72, 0.71, and 0.73, respectively. Additionally, the model had better performance relative to other eight Cox proportional-hazards models, and excellent performance in the subgroup of BCLC-B sub-classification B I and B II stages.
UNASSIGNED: The RSF-based model, established herein, can effectively predict survival of patients with BCLC stage B HCC, with better performance than previous Cox proportional hazards models.

Purpose: There is a lack of consensus on the surveillance strategy for Barcelona Clinic liver cancer (BCLC) stage B hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients with complete remission (CR). We performed a real-world, retrospective analysis of the surveillance strategy for BCLC stage B HCC patients after radical therapy with CR to support clinical decision-making. Materials and Methods: We analyzed 546 BCLC stage B HCC patients with CR after radical treatments (surgery/ablation) at Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center, from January 2007 to December 2019. The intensity of surveillance interval was defined as the mean of surveillance interval within 2 years. The primary endpoint of the study was overall survival (OS) and extra-Milan criteria relapse. Results: During a median follow-up time of 23.9 months (range = 3.1-148.3 months), there were 11.9% of patients died, 56.6% of patients developed recurrence, the vast majority of patients experienced recurrence within 2 years, and 27.8% patients developed extra-Milan criteria recurrence. The median disease-free survival and OS were 33.6 and 60.0 months, respectively. Patients were divided into regular surveillance group (RS) (≤4.3 months) and irregular surveillance (IRS) group (>4.3 months) based on the optimal cutoff value of the intensity of surveillance interval. The RS group owned a lower incident of extra-Milan criteria relapse and smaller and fewer tumors at recurrence than IRS group, which contributed to the prolonged OS. Besides, the cutoff values of surveillance interval that could lead to significant differences in the incidence of extra-Milan criteria relapse during 0-6, 6-12, and 12-18 months after CR were 2.6, 2.9, and 3 months, respectively. Conclusions: The average surveillance interval for patients with BCLC stage B HCC achieved CR should not exceed 4.3 months during the first 2 years\' follow-up. During three different phases of the initial 18 months after CR, individualized surveillance showed intervals no more than 3 months were required to reduce the incidence of extra-Milan criteria relapse.

BACKGROUND: Hepatic resection (HR) is not recommended for intermediate-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) by the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer criteria. We examined the prognostic factors of HR for intermediate-stage HCC and developed new HR criteria for intermediate-stage HCC.
METHODS: A total of 110 patients who underwent HR without any prior treatment for intermediate-stage HCC between January 2007 and December 2012 were enrolled at eight university hospitals. The outcomes and prognostic factors of HR were evaluated to develop new HR criteria.
RESULTS: In terms of tumor size and number, the most significant prognostic factors were within the up-to-seven criteria. Furthermore, serum albumin level ≥35 g/L and serum alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level.

OBJECTIVE: Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is one of the standard treatments recommended for intermediate stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). At the same time, only little is known about the use of radioembolization with Yttrium-90 microspheres (TARE Y-90) for this subset of patients. To perform comparative analysis between both locoregional therapies in intermediate HCCs. Primary endpoint was overall survival (OS), while safety, response rate and time-to-progression (TTP) were considered as secondary endpoints.
METHODS: We collected data of 86 HCC patients in two university hospitals at which conventional TACE with doxorubicin or TARE Y-90 using glass microspheres were performed. The median observation period was 10 months. Patients were followed up for signs of toxicity and response. They underwent imaging analysis at baseline and follow-up at regular time intervals.
RESULTS: Eighty-six HCC patients with intermediate stage B (BCLC) were treated with either TACE (n = 42) or TARE Y-90 (n = 44). Despite a higher tumour burden in the TARE Y-90 group, the median OS (TACE: 18 months vs. TARE Y-90: 16.4 months) and the median TTP (TACE: 6.8 months vs. TARE Y-90: 13.3 months) were not statistically different. The number of treatment sessions, the average rate of treatment sessions per patient, total hospitalization time and rate of adverse events were significantly higher in the TACE cohort.
CONCLUSIONS: In intermediate HCC stage patients, both treatments resulted in similar survival probabilities despite more advanced disease in the TARE Y-90 group. Still, TARE Y-90 was better tolerated and associated with less hospitalization and treatment sessions.