Climate events that break records by large margins are a threat to society and ecosystems. Climate change is expected to increase the probability of such events, but quantifying these probabilities is challenging due to natural variability and limited data availability, especially for observations and very rare extremes. Here we estimate the probability of precipitation events that shatter records by a margin of at least one pre-industrial standard deviation. Using large ensemble climate simulations and extreme value theory, we determine empirical and analytical record shattering probabilities and find they are in high agreement. We show that, particularly in high emission scenarios, models project much higher record-shattering precipitation probabilities in a changing relative to a stationary climate by the end of the century for almost all the global land, with the strongest increases in vulnerable regions in the tropics. We demonstrate that increasing variability is an essential driver of near-term increases in record-shattering precipitation probability, and present a framework that quantifies the influence of combined trends in mean and variability on record-shattering behaviour in extreme precipitation. Probability estimates of record-shattering precipitation events in a warming world are crucial to inform risk assessment and adaptation policies.

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Deposition of wildfire smoke on snow contributes to its darkening and accelerated snowmelt. Recent field studies have identified dark brown carbon (d-BrC) to contribute 50-75% of shortwave absorption in wildfire smoke. d-BrC is a distinct class of water-insoluble, light-absorbing organic carbon that co-exists in abundance with black carbon (BC) in snow across the world. However, the importance of d-BrC as a snow warming agent relative to BC remains unexplored. We address this gap using aerosol-snow radiative transfer calculations on datasets from laboratory and field measurement. We show d-BrC increases the annual mean snow radiative forcing between 0.6 and 17.9 W m- 2, corresponding to different wildfire smoke deposition scenarios. This is a 1.6 to 2.1-fold enhancement when compared with BC-only deposition on snow. This study suggests d-BrC is an important contributor to snowmelt in midlatitude glaciers, where ~40% of the world\'s glacier surface area resides.

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Recent years have shown that secondary ice production (SIP) is ubiquitous, affecting all clouds from polar to tropical regions. SIP is not described well in models and may explain biases in warm mixed-phase cloud ice content and structure. Through modeling constrained by in-situ observations and its synergy with radar we show that SIP in orographic clouds exert a profound impact on the vertical distribution of hydrometeors and precipitation, especially in seeder-feeder cloud configurations. The mesoscale model simulations coupled with a radar simulator strongly support that enhanced aggregation and SIP through ice-ice collisions contribute to observed spectral bimodalities, skewing the Doppler spectra toward the slower-falling side at temperatures within the dendritic growth layer, ranging from -20 °C to -10 °C. This unique signature provides an opportunity to infer long-term SIP occurrences from the global cloud radar data archive, particularly for this underexplored temperature regime.