最近的研究表明,由于气候变化,亚洲水塔(AWT)面临风险,这会对亚洲的水和粮食安全产生负面影响。然而,缺乏有关该地区湖泊时空变化的全面信息。这些信息对于理解风险大小和设计策略至关重要。为了填补这一研究空白,我们分析了1977±2年至2020±2年的89,480张Landsat图像,以研究AWT补给的湖泊大小的变化。我们的发现表明,在209个大于50平方公里的湖泊中,有176个(84%)在雨季增长,在旱季增长167个(81%)。74%的扩张湖泊位于青藏高原(TP)和塔里木盆地。萎缩的湖泊主要在赫尔曼德地区发现,印度河,和长江流域。在整个时期,收缩面积(雨季为55,077.028km2,53,986.796km2在干燥时)明显超过膨胀(13,000.267km2在潮湿时,干11,038.805km2),咸海的急剧衰落是萎缩的主要原因,占总损失的90%。从1990±2年到2020±2年,高山湖泊大多扩张,平原湖泊大多萎缩,从1977±2到1990±2,趋势相反。全球变暖下,内TP的冰川损失和多年冻土融化,塔里木内部,SyrDarya,湄公河流域与湖泊扩张密切相关。然而,尽管补给增加,但多年冻土的不连续性可能会阻止印度河和恒河盆地湖泊的显着增长。我们的发现指出了AWT补给的湖泊所面临的风险。随着AWT撤退和湖泊补给的放缓,立即采取行动来管理这些风险和适应至关重要。
Recent studies indicate that the Asian Water Tower (AWT) is at risk due to climate change, which can negatively impact water and food security in Asia. However, there is a lack of comprehensive information on lakes\' spatial and temporal changes in this region. This information is crucial for understanding the risk magnitude and designing strategies. To fill this research gap, we analyzed 89,480 Landsat images from 1977 ± 2 to 2020 ± 2 to investigate the changes in the size of lakes recharged by the AWT. Our findings showed that out of the 209 lakes larger than 50 km2, 176 (84 %) grew during the wet season and 167 (81 %) during the dry season. 74 % of expanded lakes are located in the Inner Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Tarim basins. The lakes that shrank are found mainly in the Helmand, Indus, and Yangtze basins. Over the entire period, the area of shrinkage (55,077.028 km2 in wet season, 53,986.796 km2 in dry) markedly exceeded expansion (13,000.267 km2 in wet, 11,038.805 km2 in dry), with the drastic decline of the Aral Sea being a major contributor to shrinkage, accounting for 90 % of the total loss. From 1990 ± 2 to 2020 ± 2, alpine lakes mostly expanded, plain lakes mostly shrank, with the opposite trend from 1977 ± 2 to 1990 ± 2. Glacial loss and permafrost thawing under global warming in the Inner TP, Tarim Interior, Syr Darya, and Mekong basins were strongly correlated with lake expansion. However, permafrost discontinuities may prevent significant growth of lakes in the Indus and Ganges basins despite increased recharge. Our findings point to the prominence of the risk the lakes recharged by AWT face. Taking immediate action to manage these risks and adaptation is crucial as the AWT retreats and lake recharges are slowed.