鉴于农业活动的巨大碳足迹,减少农业碳排放(ACE)对实现中国的碳峰值和碳中和目标具有重要意义。但它可能会影响农业粮食安全和经济发展。因此,了解ACE的多年趋势和影响因素,对科学的碳减排措施具有重要意义。并阐明ACE过程是否影响粮食安全和经济发展。本研究分析了浙江省2001-2020年不同农业碳源(ACS)引起的总ACE和ACE的变化趋势。然后基于对数平均Divisia指数(LMDI)模型揭示了ACE的主要影响因素,并剖析了ACE与粮食安全和经济发展的关系。结果表明,总ACE从2001年的6.10Mt波动到2020年的3.93Mt,该过程包括2001-2003年和2005-2020年的下降和2003-2005年的上升。ACE的减少,从2001年到2014年,主要是由于水稻种植面积下降,贡献了90.38%;2014年至2020年,是由化肥使用量的减少、柴油,农药,贡献了83.9%。作为司机,农业经济发展效应和总人口规模效应驱动了4.25和1.54Mt的ACE,分别。作为抑制剂,种植结构效应,技术开发效果,种群结构效应抑制了ACE的3.12、2.11和2.74Mt,分别。随着ACE的减少,农业经济持续增长,但是粮食安全形势悲观,表明ACE减排与经济发展取得了协同作用,但与粮食安全无关。
Given the huge carbon footprint of agricultural activities, reduction in agricultural carbon emission (ACE) is important to achieve China\'s carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, but it may affect agricultural food security and economic development. Therefore, it is important for scientific carbon reduction measures to understand the multi-year trends and the influencing factors of ACE, and clarify whether the process of ACE affects food security and economic development. This study analyzed the trends of total ACE and ACE caused by different agricultural carbon sources (ACS) from 2001 to 2020 in Zhejiang Province, then we revealed the main influencing factors of ACE based on the logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) model and dissected the relationship between ACE and food security and economic development. Results show that the total ACE fluctuated from 6.10 Mt in 2001 to 3.93 Mt in 2020, and the process included a decrease in 2001-2003 and 2005-2020 and an increase in 2003-2005. The decrease in ACE, from 2001 to 2014, was mainly due to the decline in rice acreage, which contributed 90.38%; from 2014 to 2020, it was by the reduction in the use of fertilizer, diesel, and pesticide, which contributed 83.9%. As drivers, agricultural economic development effect and total population size effect drove 4.25 and 1.54 Mt of ACE, respectively. As inhibitors, planting structure effect, technology development effect, and population structure effect inhibited 3.12, 2.11, and 2.74 Mt of ACE, respectively. With the reduction of ACE, the agricultural economy continued to grow, but the food security situation was pessimistic, indicating that ACE reduction has achieved synergy with economic development, but not with food security.