African stock markets

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    市场之间的信息流动对于引导投资者和决策者进行资产的有效配置和积极的市场调控具有重要意义,分别。本研究使用每日美国金融压力指数(USFSI)和其他发达经济体金融压力指数(OAEFSI)代替全球金融压力指数,研究了全球金融市场压力对非洲股票市场的信息流的影响。要了解各种投资视野中的信息流动态,采用基于集成经验模态分解(EEMD)的传递熵。我们的发现表明,非洲股票市场对全球金融市场压力造成的信息流风险很高。然而,我们根据短期加纳和埃及以及坦桑尼亚的市场状况确定多元化前景,科特迪瓦,从中期来看,埃及。实证结果还表明,从全球金融压力到非洲股票市场的信息流取决于时间尺度,经济关系,以及全球金融市场的状况。这些发现对投资者来说很重要,投资组合经理,从业者,和政策制定者。
    The flow of information between markets is important to guide investors and policymakers in the effective allocation of assets and proactive market regulation, respectively. This study examines the impact of information flow from global financial market stress on the African stock markets using the daily US financial stress index (USFSI) and other advanced economies\' financial stress index (OAEFSI) to proxy the global financial stress index. To understand the information flow dynamics across various investment horizons, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD)-based transfer entropy is employed. Our findings reveal that African equity markets are highly risky for information flow from global financial market stress. However, we identify diversification prospects based on market conditions for Ghana and Egypt in the short term and Tanzania, Cote D\'Ivoire, and Egypt in the medium term. Empirical results also show that the information flow from global financial stress to African stock markets depends on time scales, economic relations, and the state of global financial markets. The findings are important for investors, portfolio managers, practitioners, and policymakers.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    这项研究考察了尼日利亚证券交易所市场(NSE)和一些选定的股票市场之间的传染和结构性断裂,即:加纳,南非(SA),突尼斯,和美国。考虑了两个时期:危机期(2016年5月1日至2017年12月31日)和平静期(2018年1月1日至2019年12月31日)。在(陈,J.,Fry-McKibbin,R&萧C(2018)。传染病的体制切换偏斜-正态模型。非线性动力学和计量经济学研究,第23卷,第1期),该研究使用了政权转换偏态(RSSN)模型,该模型能够测量市场之间的传染和结构中断。我们的结果表明,危机和平静时期之间存在结构性突破,这是传染的先决条件。此外,研究发现,尼日利亚和南非股票市场之间存在适度的传染,但尼日利亚和其余股票市场之间没有传染,建议在2016年经济衰退期间从尼日利亚飞往南非的资金航班,以确保安全。然而,在平静时期,我们找不到任何从南非转向尼日利亚的资本逆转的证据,这意味着尼日利亚和南非股市之间存在不对称关系。尼日利亚和选定的非洲股票市场之间没有传染,这表明各国之间没有重大的经济合作和跨境证券投资流动。这一事态发展进一步强调了全面执行《非洲大陆自由贸易协定》(AfCFTA)的必要性,这鼓励了非洲大陆的经济活动和投资流动。
    This study examined the contagion and structural break between Nigerian Stock Exchange Market (NSE) and some selected stock markets, namely: Ghana, South Africa (SA), Tunisia, and the United States. Two periods were considered: the crisis period (1st May 2016 to 31st December 2017) and the calm period (1st January 2018 to 31st December 2019). Following the work of (Chan, J., Fry-McKibbin, R. & Hsiao C. (2018). A Regime switching skew-normal model of contagion. Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, Volume 23, Issue 1), the study used the Regime Switching Skew-Normal (RSSN) model which is capable of measuring contagion and structural breaks between markets. Our results indicated evidence of a structural break between the crisis and calm periods, which is a prerequisite for contagion. Furthermore, the study found a moderate contagion between Nigeria and SA stock markets but an absence of contagion between Nigeria and the remaining stock markets, suggesting capital flights from Nigeria to SA for safety during the 2016 economic recession. However, we were unable to find any evidence of capital reversal to Nigeria from SA during the calm period, implying an existence of an asymmetric relationship between Nigeria and South African stock markets. The absence of contagion between Nigeria and the selected African stock markets, suggests there is no significant economic cooperation and cross-border portfolio investment flow among the countries. This development further underpins the imperativeness of the full implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA), which encourages economic activities and investment flow on the continent.
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