全球,观察到洪水破坏的增加。各国政府都在寻找保护生命的有效方法,建筑物,和基础设施。同时,似乎存在很大的投资差距-应该采取哪些措施来遏制损害的增加与实际采取的措施之间存在很大差异。参与气候适应的决策者面临着根本性(所谓的深层)不确定性。随着时间的推移,科学界已经开发了各种不同的方法来处理这些不确定性。这些方法之一,适应途径,作为构建和告知气候适应的一种方式,正在获得牵引力。但是研究表明,“在评估适应途径的当前使用及其对实践者和决策者的效用方面所做的工作很少”(Lin等人。2017年,第387页)。有了这篇论文,作者,作为行动研究人员和从业者参与了世界上两个最大的现实生活中的这种方法在洪水风险管理中的应用,致力于填补这一空白。对英国和荷兰在洪水风险管理长期规划方面的经验进行的分析表明,适应途径方法在保持决策过程向前发展方面是有效的,最终批准长期计划,并有助于提高对不确定性的认识。它有助于保持长期选择的政治支持,并激励决策者修改其计划,以更好地适应未来的条件。当谈到实施计划时,仍然存在一些重大挑战,还有待解决,其中包括:在自然变化较大的情况下及时发现临界点,纳入准备转向转型战略的措施,以及保留地区和地方当局的承诺,非政府组织,和私营部门,随着国家政策从蓝图规划转向适应性计划,气候适应。在提供这种反馈时,作者希望激励科学界接受这些挑战。
Worldwide, an increase in flood damage is observed. Governments are looking for effective ways to protect lives, buildings, and infrastructure. At the same time, a large investment gap seems to exist-a big difference between what should necessarily be done to curb the increase in damage and what is actually being done. Decision-makers involved in climate adaptation are facing fundamental (so-called deep) uncertainties. In the course of time, the scientific community has developed a wide range of different approaches for dealing with these uncertainties. One of these approaches, adaptation pathways, is gaining traction as a way of framing and informing climate adaptation. But research shows that \"very little work has been done to evaluate the current use of adaptation pathways and its utility to practitioners and decision makers\" (Lin et al. 2017, p. 387). With this paper, the authors, as action researchers and practitioners involved in two of the world\'s largest real-life applications of this approach in flood risk management, aim to contribute to filling in that gap. Analysis of the experience in the United Kingdom and the Netherlands in long-term planning in flood risk management shows that the adaptation pathways approach is effective in keeping decision processes going forward, to the final approval of a long-term plan, and helps increase awareness about uncertainties. It contributes to political support for keeping long-term options open and motivates decision-makers to modify their plans to better accommodate future conditions. When it comes to implementing the plans, there are still some major challenges, yet to be addressed, amongst others: the timely detection of tipping points in situations with large natural variability, the inclusion of measures that prepare for a switch to transformational strategies, and the retention of commitment of regional and local authorities, non government organizations, and the private sector, to climate adaptation as national policies move from blueprint planning to adaptive plans. In delivering this feedback, the authors hope to motivate the scientific community to take on these challenges.