■蛇咬伤是一种被忽视的热带病,主要影响农村地区的贫困人口。在高流行地区,预防可以部分降低持续的风险,但是人们仍然需要及时获得适当的治疗。根据世卫组织的蛇咬伤路线图,我们的目标是通过风险建模和获得治疗来了解蛇咬伤的脆弱性,并提出合理的解决方案来优化资源分配。
■我们将蛇咬伤风险分布栅格与尼泊尔Terai地区的旅行时间可达性分析相结合,考虑到三种车辆类型,两个季节,两种蛇咬伤综合征,和不确定性区间。我们提出了局部和广义的优化方案,以提高蛇咬伤治疗人群的覆盖率,专注于神经毒性综合症。
■在Terai,神经毒性综合征是导致蛇咬伤脆弱性高的主要因素。对于最常见的季节场景,综合征,和运输,估计有2.07(15.3%)万农村人口属于高脆弱性阶层。当考虑到最乐观和最悲观的情况时,这介于0.3(2.29%)和6.8(50.43%)百万之间。分别。如果所有治疗蛇咬伤的医疗机构都能最佳地治疗这两种综合征,农村人口的治疗覆盖率可以从65.93%增加到93.74%,代表>380万人的差异。
■这项研究是对蛇咬伤脆弱性的首次高分辨率分析,考虑风险和行驶速度的不确定性。这些结果可以帮助识别极易被蛇咬伤的人群,优化资源分配,并支持世卫组织的蛇咬伤路线图工作。
■瑞士国家科学基金会。
UNASSIGNED: Snakebite envenoming is a neglected tropical disease that mainly affects poor populations in rural areas. In hyperendemic regions, prevention could partially reduce the constant risk, but the population still needs timely access to adequate treatment. In line with WHO\'s snakebite roadmap, we aim to understand snakebite vulnerability through modelling of risk and access to treatment, and propose plausible solutions to optimise resource allocation.
UNASSIGNED: We combined snakebite-risk distribution rasters with travel-time accessibility analyses for the Terai region of Nepal, considering three vehicle types, two seasons, two snakebite syndromes, and uncertainty intervals. We proposed localised and generalised optimisation scenarios to improve snakebite treatment coverage for the population, focusing on the neurotoxic syndrome.
UNASSIGNED: In the Terai, the neurotoxic syndrome is the main factor leading to high snakebite vulnerability. For the most common scenario of season, syndrome, and transport, an estimated 2.07 (15.3%) million rural people fall into the high vulnerability class. This ranges between 0.3 (2.29%) and 6.8 (50.43%) million people when considering the most optimistic and most pessimistic scenarios, respectively. If all health facilities treating snakebite envenoming could optimally treat both syndromes, treatment coverage of the rural population could increase from 65.93% to 93.74%, representing a difference of >3.8 million people.
UNASSIGNED: This study is the first high-resolution analysis of snakebite vulnerability, accounting for uncertainties in both risk and travel speed. The results can help identify populations highly vulnerable to snakebite envenoming, optimise resource allocation, and support WHO\'s snakebite roadmap efforts.
UNASSIGNED: Swiss National Science Foundation.