AUC, the area under the ROC curve

  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    机器学习是一种重要的人工智能技术,广泛应用于癌症诊断和检测。最近,随着个性化和精准医疗的兴起,机器学习应用于预后预测的趋势正在增长。然而,到目前为止,在日常临床实践中建立可靠的癌症预后预测模型仍然是一个障碍。在这项工作中,我们整合基因组,来自癌症基因组图谱(TCGA)的肺腺癌(LUAD)和鳞状细胞癌(LUSC)患者的临床和人口统计学数据,并引入15个选定基因的拷贝数变异(CNV)和突变信息,以生成复发和存活的预测模型。我们比较了三种成熟的机器学习算法的准确性和好处:决策树方法、神经网络和支持向量机。尽管使用决策树方法的预测模型的准确性没有显著优势,树模型揭示了基因组信息中最重要的预测因子(例如KRAS,EGFR,TP53),临床状态(如TNM分期和放疗)和人口统计学(如年龄和性别),以及它们如何影响早期LUAD和LUSC的复发和存活预测.机器学习模型有可能帮助临床医生在后续时间表等方面做出个性化决策,并帮助个性化规划未来的社会护理需求。
    Machine learning is an important artificial intelligence technique that is widely applied in cancer diagnosis and detection. More recently, with the rise of personalised and precision medicine, there is a growing trend towards machine learning applications for prognosis prediction. However, to date, building reliable prediction models of cancer outcomes in everyday clinical practice is still a hurdle. In this work, we integrate genomic, clinical and demographic data of lung adenocarcinoma (LUAD) and squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC) patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and introduce copy number variation (CNV) and mutation information of 15 selected genes to generate predictive models for recurrence and survivability. We compare the accuracy and benefits of three well-established machine learning algorithms: decision tree methods, neural networks and support vector machines. Although the accuracy of predictive models using the decision tree method has no significant advantage, the tree models reveal the most important predictors among genomic information (e.g. KRAS, EGFR, TP53), clinical status (e.g. TNM stage and radiotherapy) and demographics (e.g. age and gender) and how they influence the prediction of recurrence and survivability for both early stage LUAD and LUSC. The machine learning models have the potential to help clinicians to make personalised decisions on aspects such as follow-up timeline and to assist with personalised planning of future social care needs.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    数字乳腺断层摄影(DBT)和常规全视野数字乳腺X线摄影(FFDM)对不同人群的乳腺可疑钙化的诊断性能差异尚不清楚。这项研究的目的是确定与FFDM相比,DBT是否对各种人群的乳腺可疑钙化具有诊断优势。纳入了三百零五例患者(其中七例双侧病变),三名放射科医生对312例乳房图像进行了回顾性分析。术后乳腺钙化病理是金标准。使用DBT和FFDM诊断乳腺癌的敏感性为92.9%和88.8%,特异性为87.9%和75.2%,阳性预测值为77.8%和62.1%,阴性预测值为96.4%和93.6%,分别。与FFDM相比,DBT对良性钙化的诊断准确性明显更高(87.9%vs75.2%)。在恶性钙化的诊断中没有优势。DBT诊断准确率明显高于绝经前的FFDM(88.4%vs78.8%)。绝经后(90.2%vs77.2%),和致密乳腺病例(89.4%vs81.9%)。在非致密乳腺病例中没有显着差异。在我们的研究中,与FFDM相比,DBT在致密乳房和良性钙化病例中表现出优越的优势。而在非致密乳房或恶性钙化病例中没有观察到优势。因此,在乳房致密的年轻女性的乳腺癌筛查中,建议DBT进行准确诊断。我们的发现可以帮助临床医生针对不同患者应用最佳技术,并为乳腺癌筛查指南的更新提供理论依据。
    The diagnostic performance difference between digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT) and conventional full-field digital mammography (FFDM) for breast suspicious calcifications from various populations is unclear. The objective of this study is to determine whether DBT exhibits the diagnostic advantage for breast suspicious calcifications from various populations compared with FFDM. Three hundred and five patients were enrolled (of which seven patients with bilateral lesions) and 312 breasts images were retrospectively analyzed by three radiologists independently. The postoperative pathology of breast calcifications was the gold standard. Breast cancer was diagnosed utilizing DBT and FFDM with sensitivities of 92.9% and 88.8%, specificities of 87.9% and 75.2%, positive predictive values of 77.8% and 62.1%, negative predictive values of 96.4% and 93.6%, respectively. DBT exhibited significantly higher diagnostic accuracy for benign calcifications compared with FFDM (87.9% vs 75.2%), and no advantage in the diagnosis of malignant calcifications. DBT diagnostic accuracy was notably higher than FFDM in premenopausal (88.4% vs 78.8%), postmenopausal (90.2% vs 77.2%), and dense breast cases (89.4% vs 81.9%). There was no significant difference in non-dense breast cases. In our study, DBT exhibited a superior advantage in dense breasts and benign calcifications cases compared to FFDM, while no advantage was observed in non-dense breasts or malignant calcifications cases. Thus, in the breast cancer screening for young women with dense breasts, DBT may be recommended for accurate diagnosis. Our findings may assist the clinicians in applying the optimal techniques for different patients and provide a theoretical basis for the update of breast cancer screening guideline.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    循环微小RNA(miRNA)是用于癌症检测的有前景的生物标志物。然而,缺乏非小细胞肺癌(NSCLC)的多种族和多中心研究.我们招募了221名NSCLC患者,来自中国和美国的161个对照和56个良性结节。使用TaqMan低密度阵列进行初始miRNA筛选,然后通过RT-qPCR在中国队列中单独确认。最后,我们进行了一项来自美国队列的盲试验,以验证我们的发现.RT-qPCR证实miR-483-5p,miR-193a-3p,与对照组相比,患者的miR-25、miR-214和miR-7显著升高。这五个血清miRNA组的ROC曲线的曲线下面积(AUC)为0.976(95%CI,0.939-1.0;P<0.0001)和0.823(95%CI,0.75-0.896;P<0.0001),分别。在盲目的审判中,该小组对美国队列中95%的NSCLC病例和84%的对照进行了正确分类.最重要的是,该小组能够区分NSCLC和良性结节,在美国队列中AUC为0.979(95%CI,0.959-1.0),并允许正确预测中国和美国队列中86%和95%的I-II期肿瘤,分别。该血清miRNA组具有诊断种族不同的NSCLC患者的潜力。
    Circulating microRNAs (miRNAs) are promising biomarkers for cancer detection. However, multiethnic and multicentric studies of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) are lacking. We recruited 221 NSCLC patients, 161 controls and 56 benign nodules from both China and America. Initial miRNA screening was performed using the TaqMan Low Density Array followed by confirming individually by RT-qPCR in Chinese cohorts. Finally, we performed a blind trial from an American cohort to validate our findings. RT-qPCR confirmed that miR-483-5p, miR-193a-3p, miR-25, miR-214 and miR-7 were significantly elevated in patients compared to controls. The areas under the curve (AUCs) of the ROC curve of this five-serum miRNA panel were 0.976 (95% CI, 0.939-1.0; P < 0.0001) and 0.823 (95% CI, 0.75-0.896; P < 0.0001) for the two confirmation sets, respectively. In the blind trial, the panel correctly classified 95% NSCLC cases and 84% controls from the American cohort. Most importantly, the panel was capable of distinguishing NSCLC from benign nodules with an AUC of 0.979 (95% CI, 0.959-1.0) in the American cohort and allowed correct prediction of 86% and 95% stage I-II tumors in the Chinese and American cohorts, respectively. This serum miRNA panel holds the potential for diagnosing ethnically diverse NSCLC patients.
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