我们量化了与韩国环境空气污染暴露相关的人为健康负担来源,并使用联合国环境规划署(UNEP)提供的2050年国内排放控制情景预测未来的健康负担。我们的健康负担估计框架使用GEOS-Chem模拟,卫星衍生的NO2,以及地面对PM2.5,O3和NO2的观测。我们估计,由于长期暴露于PM2.5,O3和NO2,分别导致19,000,3,300和8,500例过早死亡。2016年与NO2相关的儿童哮喘发病率为23,000例。接下来,我们使用伴随敏感性分析计算了每个物种和网格单元对这四种健康负担的人为排放贡献。国内来源占56%,38%,87%,和88%的边际排放贡献对PM2.5-,O3-,与NO2相关的过早死亡和与NO2相关的儿童哮喘发病率,分别。我们使用环境署的国内排放情景(基线和缓解)和韩国统计局的人口预测,预计到2050年的健康负担。仅仅因为人口老龄化,与PM2.5,O3和NO2暴露相关的过早死亡人数增加了41,000,10,000和20,000,分别,与NO2相关的儿童哮喘发病率减少9,000。缓解方案使NO2相关的健康益处比基线方案增加一倍,到2050年,预防24,000例过早死亡和13,000例儿童哮喘发病率。它还略微减少了与PM2.5和O3相关的过早死亡9.9%和7.0%,与这些污染物增加的基线情景不同。此外,我们检查了九种基于SSP/RCP的情景对外国排放的影响,强调国际合作减少PM2.5和O3污染的必要性。
We quantify anthropogenic sources of health burdens associated with ambient air pollution exposure in South Korea and forecast future health burdens using domestic emission control scenarios by 2050 provided by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). Our health burden estimation framework uses GEOS-Chem simulations, satellite-derived NO2, and ground-based observations of PM2.5, O3, and NO2. We estimate 19,000, 3,300, and 8,500 premature deaths owing to long-term exposure to PM2.5, O3, and NO2, respectively, and 23,000 NO2-associated childhood asthma incidences in 2016. Next, we calculate anthropogenic emission contributions to these four health burdens from each species and grid cell using adjoint sensitivity analysis. Domestic sources account for 56%, 38%, 87%, and 88% of marginal emission contributions to the PM2.5-, O3-, and NO2-associated premature deaths and the NO2-associated childhood asthma incidences, respectively. We project health burdens to 2050 using UNEP domestic emission scenarios (Baseline and Mitigation) and population forecasts from Statistics Korea. Because of population aging alone, there are 41,000, 10,000, and 20,000 more premature deaths associated with PM2.5, O3, and NO2 exposure, respectively, and 9,000 fewer childhood asthma incidences associated with NO2. The Mitigation scenario doubles the NO2-associated health benefits over the Baseline scenario, preventing 24,000 premature deaths and 13,000 childhood asthma incidences by 2050. It also slightly reduces PM2.5- and O3-associated premature deaths by 9.9% and 7.0%, unlike the Baseline scenario where these pollutants increase. Furthermore, we examine foreign emission impacts from nine SSP/RCP-based scenarios, highlighting the need for international cooperation to reduce PM2.5 and O3 pollution.