这项研究引入了“自适应堆叠”物种分布模型(AS-SDMs)的新概念,以预测蓝碳栖息地分布。丰度,碳储量,和奥克尼的碳封存潜力。AS-SDM由加权增强回归树(WBRT)构建,自适应地堆叠蓝碳沉积物厚度,沉积物碳含量,以及对预测丰度的隔离潜力。一种通过泥浆的相对输入来描述底物类型的新颖方法,沙子,和砾石是详细的,更好地表征海草的决定因素,Maerl,和马贻贝丰富。本研究还介绍了一种新颖的索引用法,以减轻混合物种分布模型的双重计数问题。海草,Maerl,马贻贝,和混合海草和maerl栖息地(SGM)估计覆盖奥克尼的最大面积为657km2,沉积物总碳储量为16公吨。C,并隔离6000吨Cyr-1。将50%丰度的保守阈值应用于栖息地预测,确定了蓝碳补偿项目的六个关键潜在领域。这些地区面积超过9平方公里,总碳储量为33万tC,和隔离330吨Cyr-1。当应用于英国碳信用价值时,假设与受监管的市场整合并符合认证标准,这些地区的栖息地潜在价值为2450万英镑。如果作为年化价值应用,这些地区的碳储量潜在价值为93万英镑yr-1,碳固存潜在价值为24,000英镑yr-1。
This study introduces a novel concept of \'Adaptively Stacked\' Species Distribution Models (AS-SDMs) to predict blue carbon habitat distribution, abundance, carbon stocks, and carbon sequestration potential in Orkney. AS-SDMs are built from Weighted Boosted Regression Trees (WBRTs) that adaptively stack blue carbon sediment thickness, sediment carbon content, and sequestration potential to predicted abundance. A novel method to describe substrate types by relative inputs of mud, sand, and gravel is detailed that better characterises the determining factors of
seagrass, maerl, and horse mussel abundance. This study also introduces a novel use of indexes to mitigate double counting issues of mixed species distribution models.
Seagrass, maerl, horse mussel, and mixed
seagrass and maerl (SGM) habitats are estimated to cover a maximum area of 657 km2 in Orkney, have a total sediment carbon stock of 16 Mt. C, and sequester 6000 t C yr-1. Applying a conservative threshold of 50 % abundance to habitat predictions, six key potential areas of blue carbon offset projects are identified. These areas cover just over 9 km2, have a total carbon stock of 330,000 t C, and sequester 330 t C yr-1. When applied to UK carbon credit value, assuming integration with voluntary markets and compliance with accreditation criteria, the habitats in these areas have a potential value of £24.5 million. If applied as annual values, these areas have carbon stocks with a potential value of £0.93 million yr-1 and a carbon sequestration potential value of £24,000 yr-1.