■在澳大利亚,艾滋病毒的发病率稳步下降,然而,在这种情况下,持续减少艾滋病毒传播需要改善公共卫生对策。由于分子流行病学数据可以指导加强公共卫生应对措施和资源的优先次序,在这里,我们旨在评估这些方法在维多利亚州的适用性,澳大利亚。
■来自维多利亚州被诊断为HIV的个体的HIV-1pol序列的全面收集,澳大利亚,在2000年1月1日至2020年12月31日期间被取消识别,并用作我们评估的基础。这些序列是亚型和监测耐药突变(SDRM)鉴定,在定义传播组之前,使用HIV-TRACE(0.4.4).使用BEAST(2.6.6)应用了系统动力学方法,评估大型群体的有效生殖数量,并整合了其他人口统计数据,以提供十年时间尺度上维多利亚州艾滋病毒传播的高分辨率视图。
■基于HIV-TRACE的标准设置,70%(2438/3507)的分析的HIV-1pol序列容易被分配到传播组。传播组中的个体更常见的是男性(aOR1.50),在澳大利亚出生的人(aOR2.13),那些可能收购地点为维多利亚的人(AOR6.73),和/或报告可注射药物使用的人(aOR2.13)。在375名患者(10.7%)中发现了SDRM,这些的持续传播仅限于较小群体的子集。流行病增长的信息模式,稳定,并观察到下降;许多传播组显示有效生殖数(Re)值达到4.0以上,代表相当大的流行病增长,而其他人则保持较低的Re值。
■这项研究提供了维多利亚州艾滋病毒传播的高分辨率视图,澳大利亚,并强调了分子流行病学在这种情况下指导和加强公共卫生应对措施的潜力。这为正在与社区团体就分子流行病学方法在澳大利亚的可接受性和地位进行的讨论提供了信息。
■国家卫生与医学研究委员会,澳大利亚研究理事会。
UNASSIGNED: In Australia the incidence of HIV has declined steadily, yet sustained reduction of HIV transmission in this setting requires improved public health responses. As enhanced public health responses and prioritisation of resources may be guided by molecular epidemiological data, here we aimed to assess the applicability of these approaches in Victoria, Australia.
UNASSIGNED: A comprehensive collection of HIV-1 pol sequences from individuals diagnosed with HIV in Victoria, Australia, between January 1st 2000 and December 31st 2020 were deidentified and used as the basis of our assessment. These sequences were subtyped and surveillance drug resistance mutations (SDRMs) identified, before definition of transmission groups was performed using HIV-TRACE (0.4.4). Phylodynamic methods were applied using BEAST (2.6.6), assessing effective reproductive numbers for large groups, and additional demographic data were integrated to provide a high resolution view of HIV transmission in Victoria on a decadal time scale.
UNASSIGNED: Based on standard settings for HIV-TRACE, 70% (2438/3507) of analysed HIV-1 pol sequences were readily assigned to a transmission group. Individuals in transmission groups were more commonly males (aOR 1.50), those born in Australia (aOR 2.13), those with probable place of acquisition as Victoria (aOR 6.73), and/or those reporting injectable drug use (aOR 2.13). SDRMs were identified in 375 patients (10.7%), with sustained transmission of these limited to a subset of smaller groups. Informative patterns of epidemic growth, stabilisation, and decline were observed; many transmission groups showed effective reproductive numbers (R e ) values reaching greater than 4.0, representing considerable epidemic growth, while others maintained low R e values.
UNASSIGNED: This study provides a high resolution view of HIV transmission in Victoria, Australia, and highlights the potential of molecular epidemiology to guide and enhance public health responses in this setting. This informs ongoing discussions with community groups on the acceptability and place of molecular epidemiological approaches in Australia.
UNASSIGNED: National Health and Medical Research Council, Australian Research Council.