Recently, the Government of Uttar Pradesh (UP) unveiled a draft bill of the UP Population Policy (2021-2030) on World Population Day to bring down the gross fertility rate and stabilization of the population. The history of the two-child norm in India has shown that different state governments had tried to implement it at different timelines during the past 20 years. Global evidence suggests that Vietnam and Bangladesh have stabilized their population and control birth rate despite not having two-child policies. Moreover, sex-selective abortion, preference for male children, denying the paternity of female children, pre-natal sex determination, and violence against women for giving birth to girl children will be on rise. Female literacy, empowerment, and addressing unmet needs of contraceptives are the time-tested solutions for population control rather than raising a new social problem with a \"two-child policy\" bill/act.

The sex ratio at birth (SRB; ratio of male to female births) in Nepal has been reported around the normal level on the national level. However, the national SRB could mask the disparity within the country. Given the demographic and cultural heterogeneities in Nepal, it is crucial to model Nepal SRB on the subnational level. Prior studies on subnational SRB in Nepal are mostly based on reporting observed values from surveys and census, and no study has provided probabilistic projections. We aim to estimate and project SRB for the seven provinces of Nepal from 1980 to 2050 using a Bayesian modeling approach.
We compiled an extensive database on provincial SRB of Nepal, consisting 2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016 Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys and 2011 Census. We adopted a Bayesian hierarchical time series model to estimate and project the provincial SRB, with a focus on modelling the potential SRB imbalance.
In 2016, the highest SRB is estimated in Province 5 (Lumbini Pradesh) at 1.102, corresponding to 110.2 male births per 100 female births, with a 95% credible interval (1.044, 1.127) and the lowest SRB is in Province 2 at 1.053 (1.035, 1.109). The SRB imbalance probabilities in all provinces are generally low and vary from 16% in Province 2 to 81% in Province 5 (Lumbini Pradesh). SRB imbalances are estimated to have begun at the earliest in 2001 in Province 5 (Lumbini Pradesh) with a 95% credible interval (1992, 2022) and the latest in 2017 (1998, 2040) in Province 2. We project SRB in all provinces to begin converging back to the national baseline in the mid-2030s. By 2050, the SRBs in all provinces are projected to be around the SRB baseline level.
Our findings imply that the majority of provinces in Nepal have low risks of SRB imbalance for the period 1980-2016. However, we identify a few provinces with higher probabilities of having SRB inflation. The projected SRB is an important illustration of potential future prenatal sex discrimination and shows the need to monitor SRB in provinces with higher possibilities of SRB imbalance.

Sex ratios at birth favoring boys are being documented in a growing number of countries, a pattern indicating that families selectively abort females. Son bias also explains why, in many countries, girls have more siblings and are born at relatively earlier parities compared with their brothers. In this study, we develop novel methods for measuring son bias using both questionnaire items and implicit association tests, and we collect data on fertility preferences and outcomes from 2,700 participants in Armenia. We document highly skewed sex ratios, suggesting that selective abortions of females are widespread among parents in our sample. We also provide evidence that sex-selective abortions are underreported, which highlights the problem of social desirability bias. We validate our methods and demonstrate that conducting implicit association tests can be a successful strategy for measuring the relative preference for sons and daughters when social desirability is a concern. We investigate the structure of son-biased fertility preferences within households, across families, and between regions in Armenia, using measures of son bias at the level of the individual decision-maker. We find that men are, on average, considerably more son-biased than women. We also show that regional differences in son bias exist and that they appear unrelated to the socioeconomic composition of the population. Finally, we estimate the degree of spousal correlation in son bias and discuss whether husbands are reliably more son-biased than their wives.

BACKGROUND: The rapid and unexpected increase in the sex ratio at birth in Nigeria between 1996 and 2014 is yet to be fully explained. The contribution of sex-selective abortion has not been explored.
METHODS: A cross-sectional survey of pregnant women was employed to address this need.
RESULTS: Preference for sex-selective abortion was noted in 8.6% of the respondents. The association between parity ≥ 4 and preference for sex-selective abortion was statistically significant. Women who were child gender-biased were significantly more likely to prefer sex-selective abortion. Experiencing intimate partner violence, and having problems with in-laws for inability to give birth to their desired gender, were predictors of maternal preference for sex-selective abortion. Women who preferred sex-selective abortion, however, felt it was necessary to campaign against gender preference.
CONCLUSIONS: Preference for sex-selective abortion exists in Nigeria, despite our restrictive abortion laws. However, the women\'s underlying reasons may include gender balancing in the family and an escape from discrimination. Improving contraceptive uptake, restriction of disclosure of fetal sex for non-medical indications, and sanctions against violent partners/oppressive in-laws are advocated. Rapid progress towards achieving a world free of the offensive gender inequalities that force women to opt for sex-selective abortion ab initio is desirable.

The UK\'s on-going sex-selective abortion (SSA) controversy remains a major obstacle to the liberalization of national abortion governance, and is an issue broadly attributed to a \"cultural\" preference for sons among South Asian women. We conceptualize how healthcare professionals \"arbitrate\" requests for SSA by exploring the tension between its legal status and how requests are encountered by abortion providers. SSA is framed in this article as a legitimate care service that can support providers to meet the diverse reproductive health needs of women to the full extent of the law.

The sex ratio at birth (SRB; ratio of male to female live births) imbalance in parts of the world over the past few decades is a direct consequence of sex-selective abortion, driven by the coexistence of son preference, readily available technology of prenatal sex determination, and fertility decline. Estimation of the degree of SRB imbalance is complicated because of unknown SRB reference levels and because of the uncertainty associated with SRB observations. There are needs for reproducible methods to construct SRB estimates with uncertainty, and to assess SRB inflation due to sex-selective abortion. We compile an extensive database from vital registration systems, censuses and surveys with 10,835 observations, and 16,602 country-years of information from 202 countries. We develop Bayesian methods for SRB estimation for all countries from 1950 to 2017. We model the SRB regional and national reference levels, the fluctuation around national reference levels, and the inflation. The estimated regional reference levels range from 1.031 (95% uncertainty interval [1.027; 1.036]) in sub-Saharan Africa to 1.063 [1.055; 1.072] in southeastern Asia, 1.063 [1.054; 1.072] in eastern Asia, and 1.067 [1.058; 1.077] in Oceania. We identify 12 countries with strong statistical evidence of SRB imbalance during 1970-2017, resulting in 23.1 [19.0; 28.3] million missing female births globally. The majority of those missing female births are in China, with 11.9 [8.5; 15.8] million, and in India, with 10.6 [8.0; 13.6] million.

We present a micro-founded simulation model that formalizes the \"ready, willing, and able\" framework, originally used to explain historical fertility decline, to the practice of prenatal sex selection. The model generates sex ratio at birth (SRB) distortions from the bottom up and attempts to quantify plausible levels, trends, and interactions of son preference, technology diffusion, and fertility decline that underpin SRB trajectories at the macro level. Calibrating our model for South Korea, we show how even as the proportion with a preference for sons was declining, SRB distortions emerged due to rapid diffusion of prenatal sex determination technology combined with small but growing propensities to abort at low birth parities. Simulations reveal that relatively low levels of son preference (about 20 % to 30 % wanting one son) can result in skewed SRB levels if technology diffuses early and steadily, and if fertility falls rapidly to encourage sex-selective abortion at low parities. Model sensitivity analysis highlights how the shape of sex ratio trajectories is particularly sensitive to the timing and speed of prenatal sex-determination technology diffusion. The maximum SRB levels reached in a population are influenced by how the readiness to abort rises as a function of the fertility decline.

The paper proposes a socioeconomic framework of supply, demand, and regulation to explain the development of sex-selective abortion in several parts of the world. The framework is then applied to three countries of southern Caucasus (Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia) where sex-selective abortion has developed since the collapse of the Soviet Union. The authors argue that sex-selective abortion cannot be explained simply by patriarchal social systems, sex discrimination, or son preference. The emphasis is put on the long-term acceptability of abortion in the region, on acceptability of sex-screening by both the medical establishment and by the population, on newly imported techniques of sex-screening, and on the changing demand for children associated with the major economic and social changes that followed the dismantlement of the Soviet Union.