据报道,尼泊尔的出生性别比(SRB;男女比例)在全国范围内接近正常水平。然而,国家SRB可以掩盖国内的差距。鉴于尼泊尔的人口和文化异质性,在国家以下一级模仿尼泊尔SRB至关重要。先前关于尼泊尔国家以下各级SRB的研究主要基于报告从调查和人口普查中观察到的值,也没有研究提供概率预测。我们的目标是使用贝叶斯建模方法估算和预测1980年至2050年尼泊尔七个省的SRB。
我们编制了一个关于尼泊尔省SRB的广泛数据库,包括2001年、2006年、2011年和2016年尼泊尔人口和健康调查以及2011年人口普查。我们采用贝叶斯分层时间序列模型来估计和预测省级SRB,重点是对潜在的SRB失衡进行建模。
2016年,第5省(蓝比尼邦)的SRB最高,为1.102,相当于每100名女性出生110.2名男性出生,95%的可信区间(1.044,1.127),最低的SRB是省2,为1.053(1.035,1.109)。所有省份的SRB不平衡概率普遍较低,从第2省的16%到第5省(LumbiniPradesh)的81%不等。据估计,SRB失衡最早于2001年在第5省(LumbiniPradesh)开始,可信区间为95%(1992年,2022年),最近在2017年(1998年,2040年)在第2省开始。我们预计所有省份的SRB将在2030年代中期开始回到国家基线。到2050年,所有省份的SRB预计将在SRB基线水平附近。
我们的研究结果表明,在1980-2016年期间,尼泊尔大多数省份的SRB失衡风险较低。然而,我们确定了几个发生SRB通胀概率较高的省份。预测的SRB是未来潜在的产前性别歧视的重要例证,表明有必要在SRB失衡可能性较高的省份监测SRB。
The sex ratio at birth (SRB; ratio of male to female births) in Nepal has been reported around the normal level on the national level. However, the national SRB could mask the disparity within the country. Given the demographic and cultural heterogeneities in Nepal, it is crucial to model Nepal SRB on the subnational level. Prior studies on subnational SRB in Nepal are mostly based on reporting observed values from surveys and census, and no study has provided probabilistic projections. We aim to estimate and project SRB for the seven provinces of Nepal from 1980 to 2050 using a Bayesian modeling approach.
We compiled an extensive database on provincial SRB of Nepal, consisting 2001, 2006, 2011, and 2016 Nepal Demographic and Health Surveys and 2011 Census. We adopted a Bayesian hierarchical time series model to estimate and project the provincial SRB, with a focus on modelling the potential SRB imbalance.
In 2016, the highest SRB is estimated in Province 5 (Lumbini Pradesh) at 1.102, corresponding to 110.2 male births per 100 female births, with a 95% credible interval (1.044, 1.127) and the lowest SRB is in Province 2 at 1.053 (1.035, 1.109). The SRB imbalance probabilities in all provinces are generally low and vary from 16% in Province 2 to 81% in Province 5 (Lumbini Pradesh). SRB imbalances are estimated to have begun at the earliest in 2001 in Province 5 (Lumbini Pradesh) with a 95% credible interval (1992, 2022) and the latest in 2017 (1998, 2040) in Province 2. We project SRB in all provinces to begin converging back to the national baseline in the mid-2030s. By 2050, the SRBs in all provinces are projected to be around the SRB baseline level.
Our findings imply that the majority of provinces in Nepal have low risks of SRB imbalance for the period 1980-2016. However, we identify a few provinces with higher probabilities of having SRB inflation. The projected SRB is an important illustration of potential future prenatal sex discrimination and shows the need to monitor SRB in provinces with higher possibilities of SRB imbalance.