■东亚亚热带常绿阔叶林(EBLF)由具有不同地形和环境条件的西部和东部亚区域组成。预测两个子区域中植物随时间的分布变化是不同的,但是这种差异很少被调查。
■在最后一次冰川最大值(LGM)期间,有53种木兰科物种(西部22种,东部分区域31种)的潜在分布,present,2070年代是使用MaxEnt基于58个环境变量预测的。分析了分布范围大小和质心随时间的变化。覆盖物种级潜在栖息地,以揭示物种多样性分布,并将随时间的分布叠加以发现长期避难所。
■目前,电位分布明显大于发生点显示的电位分布。在LGM期间,西部次区域的20/22物种通过向下和向南迁移经历了范围大小的增加,东部次区域(27/31种)的范围减小伴随着向北和向东迁移。在未来,范围大小下降和向北移动都将被发现;西部次区域的大多数(20/22种)物种将存在向西北移动,而西北和东北向转移都将发生在东部次区域。多样性热点在西部次区域经历了过去轻微的南移,未来向上向山区转移;在东部次区域,过去在中国东部发生了萎缩,未来在所有地区都出现了萎缩。在整个EBLF地区的山区发现了长期的避难所保存多样性。
■在两个分区域中揭示了从过去到现在的分布变化的显着差异以及从现在到将来的类似分布变化。两个分区的物种多样性从过去到未来都没有经历重大转变,木兰科植物可以保存在整个EBLF的山区。
UNASSIGNED: East Asian subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests (EBLFs) are composed of western and eastern subregions with different topographical and environmental conditions. The distribution shifts over time of plants in the two subregions are predicted to be different, but the difference has seldom been investigated.
UNASSIGNED: Potential distributions of 53 Magnoliaceae species (22 in the western and 31 in the eastern subregion) during the last glacial maximum (LGM), present, and the 2070s were predicted using MaxEnt based on 58 environmental variables. The changes in the distribution range size and centroid over time were analyzed. Species-level potential habitats were overlaid to uncover species diversity distribution, and the distributions over time were overlaid to discover long-term
refugia.
UNASSIGNED: At present, the potential distributions are significantly larger than those shown by the occurrence points. During the LGM, 20/22 species in the western subregion experienced increases in range size through downwards and southward migrations, while decreases in range size in the eastern subregion (27/31 species) were accompanied by northward and eastward migrations. In the future, range size declines and northward shifts will both be found; northwestward shifts will exist in most (20/22 species) species in the western subregion, while both northwest- and northeastward shifts will occur in the eastern subregion. The diversity hotspots experienced a slight southward shift in the past and upwards to the mountain region in the future in the western subregion; in the eastern subregion, shrinks occurred in eastern China in the past and shrinks were shown in all regions in the future. Long-term
refugia-preserving diversity was found in the mountains across the entire EBLFs region.
UNASSIGNED: Significant differences in distribution shifts from past to present and similar distribution shifts from present to future are revealed in the two subregions. Species diversity in both subregions experienced no significant shifts from past to future, and Magnoliaceae plants could be preserved in mountainous regions throughout the EBLFs.