背景:理想的孩子数(INC)是一个女人或男人如果可以回到他们没有孩子的时候,并且可以准确地选择孩子的数量。尽管对理想儿童人数的患病率和相关因素进行了大量研究,缺乏结合空间和多层次分析的研究。因此,这项研究旨在对理想儿童数量和相关因素进行空间和多水平分析.
方法:研究设计是一项横断面研究,其中数据来自2016年埃塞俄比亚人口与健康调查(EDHS)。考虑了约13,961名符合纳入标准的15-49岁女性。采用了包含空间和多水平分析的负二项回归模型。
结果:大约33%和12.8%的妇女分别有四个和六个理想的孩子。每名妇女的INC最高记录在奥罗米亚地区5055(36.1%),最低记录在哈拉雷35(0.2%)。农村地区10726名(76.6%)的每名妇女的INC较高,而城市地区3277名(23.4%)。理想的儿童数量在空间上是聚集的(全球Moran’sI=0.1439,p<.00043)。在索马里地区发现了重要的热点集群,例如在Afder,Shabelle,Korahe,和杜洛区。
结论:空间分析揭示了埃塞俄比亚地区儿童理想数量的显著聚集。具体来说,在索马里地区观察到较高的INC,特别是在Afder中,Shabelle,Korahe,和杜洛地区。在考虑的各种因素中,女人的年龄,区域,居住地,妇女的教育水平,避孕使用,宗教,婚姻状况,家庭大小,和第一出生年的年龄被确定为理想儿童数量的重要预测因素。这些发现表明,这些因素在塑造研究人群中女性的生殖偏好和决定中起着至关重要的作用。基于这些发现,负责任的机构应优先考虑高风险地区的有针对性的干预措施和政策,以满足妇女的特定生殖需求。
Ideal number of children (INC) is the number of children that a woman or man would have if they could go back to the time when they did not have any children and could choose accurately the number of children to have in their total life. Despite numerous studies on the prevalence and associated factors of the ideal number of children, there is a lack of studies that incorporated spatial and multilevel analysis. Thus, this study was aimed at the spatial and multilevel analysis of an ideal number of children and associated factors.
The study design was a cross-sectional study in which the data was obtained from Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS) in 2016. About 13,961 women ages 15-49 who fulfill the inclusion criterion were considered. A negative binomial regression model that incorporates spatial and multilevel analysis was employed.
About 33 and 12.8% of the women had four and six ideal numbers of children respectively. The highest INC per woman was recorded in Oromia region 5055 (36.1%) and the lowest in Harare 35(0.2%). The INC per woman is high in rural 10,726 (76.6%) areas as compared to urban areas 3277(23.4%). The ideal number of children was spatially clustered (Global Moran\'s I = 0.1439, p < .00043). Significant hotspot clusters were found in the Somali region such as in Afder, Shabelle, Korahe, and Doolo zone.
The spatial analysis revealed a significant clustering of the ideal number of children in the Ethiopia zone. Specifically, higher INC was observed in the Somali region, specifically in the Afder, Shabelle, Korahe, and Doolo zones. Among the various factors considered, women\'s age, region, place of residence, women\'s education level, contraception use, religion, marital status, family size, and age at first birth year were identified as significant predictors of the ideal number of children. These findings indicate that these factors play a crucial role in shaping reproductive preferences and decisions among women in the study population. Based on these findings, responsible bodies should prioritize targeted interventions and policies in high-risk regions to address women\'s specific reproductive needs.