土地利用回归(LUR)模型主要用于常规大气污染物的模拟和预测。是否可以扩展LUR模型以研究更多有毒和有害的污染物(例如重金属)仍有待验证。结合道路的因素,土地利用类型,人口,污染企业,气象学,和地形,利用LUR模型模拟道路扬尘中重金属的空间分布特征,确定主要影响因素。从天津市144个均匀分布点采集路面粉尘样品,中国,有108个建模点和36个验证点。Cd的LUR模型的R2值,Cr,Cu,Ni,和Pb含量分别为0.301、0.412、0.399、0.496和0.377,误差率为2.72%,4.96%,4.64%,8.91%,和4.94%,分别。克里格插值模型的错误率为3.33%,6.50%,5.14%,18.30%,和22.87%,这些都比LUR模型更大。LUR模型的估计效果比kriging插值模型的估计效果更精细。天津市中心区道路灰尘中大部分重金属(除Ni外)含量普遍高于周边地区。天津市道路扬尘中重金属含量主要受道路变量和气象变量的影响。LUR模型适用于城市区域内城市道路灰尘中重金属的小尺度空间预测。
Land use regression (LUR) models are mainly used for the simulation and prediction of conventional atmospheric pollutants. Whether the LUR models can be expanded to study more toxic and hazardous pollutants (such as heavy metals) remains to be verified. Combined with the factors of road, land use type, population, pollution enterprise, meteorology, and terrain, the LUR models were used to simulate the spatial distribution characteristics of heavy metals in road dust and determine the main influencing factors. Samples of road surface dust were collected from 144 evenly distributed points in Tianjin, China, with 108 modelling points and 36 verification points. The R2 values of the LUR models of Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni, and Pb contents were 0.301, 0.412, 0.399, 0.496, and 0.377, and their error rates were 2.72%, 4.96%, 4.64%, 8.91%, and 4.94%, respectively. The error rates of the kriging interpolation models were 3.33%, 6.50%, 5.14%, 18.30%, and 22.87%, which were all greater than those of the LUR models. The estimation effect of the LUR models was more refined than that of the kriging interpolation models. The contents of most heavy metals (except Ni) in road dust of the central area in Tianjin were generally higher than those of the surrounding areas. The heavy metal contents in road dust of Tianjin were mainly affected by road variables and meteorological variables. The LUR models were suitable for small-scale spatial prediction of heavy metals in urban road dust within urban areas.