terrorism

恐怖主义
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    萨赫勒地区持续的恐怖袭击要求通过使用人类DNA识别技术来加强安全系统。在这种情况下,在为最具侵入性的监视和特征分析形式之一建立坚实的标准和普遍保障措施时,必须考虑公众舆论。为此,我们在布基纳法索(位于萨赫勒地区的一个国家)收集了互联网用户对使用DNA技术支持刑事调查的意见。结果显示,470名参与者中有91.7%(431)认为该技术目前是布基纳法索刑事司法系统所必需的。然而,受访者对国家法医DNA数据库的保管和管理表示担忧.在这个特定的安全设置中,这项研究的公众意见可能为领导人和政治政策制定者提供考虑遗传指纹和实施国家法医DNA数据库的线索,以支持布基纳法索的刑事调查,同时也考虑伦理影响.
    Ongoing terrorist attacks in the Sahel region call for strengthening the security system by using human DNA identification technology. In this context, public opinion must be considered when establishing solid standards and universal safeguards for one of the most invasive forms of surveillance and profiling. For this purpose, we gathered internet users\' opinions in Burkina Faso (a country located in the Sahel region) on the use of DNA technology to support criminal investigations. The results revealed that 91.7% (431) of the 470 participants believed that this technology is currently necessary for the Burkina Faso\'s criminal justice system. However, the respondents expressed concerns about the custody and management of a national forensic DNA database. In this particular security setting, the public opinion of this study may provide leaders and political policymakers with clues for considering genetic fingerprints and implementing an national forensic DNA database to support criminal investigations in Burkina Faso whilst also considering the ethical implications.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    这项具体的研究计划旨在错综复杂地研究连接恐怖主义的复杂动态,腐败,以及南亚经济背景下的资本外逃,包括孟加拉国在内的国家,印度,巴基斯坦,和斯里兰卡。这项研究的主要目标是全面调查恐怖主义和腐败对资本外逃普遍性的协同影响。为了实现这些目标,该研究采用1990年至2019年的纵向数据,采用投资组合选择框架作为其理论基础。在方法论方面,实证调查使用广义矩量法(GMM)估计技术。这一分析得出的实证结果清楚地表明,恐怖主义之间存在统计上值得注意的正相关关系,腐败,以及跨多个南亚国家的资本外逃。鉴于这些明显的结果,强烈建议南亚国家政府优先考虑并积极加强其体制治理机制。这种战略方针被认为是有效遏制资本外逃升级的关键。具体来说,有针对性地关注加强机构治理实践,促进透明度,加强反腐败措施,加强反恐努力可以共同有助于减少资本外逃的倾向。通过执行这些建议,南亚政府可以营造一个增强经济稳定的环境,投资吸引力,可持续增长,从而遏制资本外逃的不利影响,同时打击恐怖主义和腐败带来的潜在挑战。
    This specific research initiative aims to intricately examine the intricate dynamics connecting terrorism, corruption, and capital flight within the context of South Asian economies, encompassing countries including Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. The principal objectives of this study entail a comprehensive investigation into the synergistic impacts of terrorism and corruption on the prevalence of capital flight. To realize these objectives, the study employs longitudinal data from 1990 to 2019, adopting the portfolio choice framework as its theoretical underpinning. In terms of methodology, the empirical inquiry uses the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimation technique. The empirical findings derived from this analysis distinctly establish a statistically noteworthy and positive correlation between terrorism, corruption, and the occurrence of capital flight across multiple South Asian nations. In light of these discerning outcomes, it is strongly recommended that the governments of South Asian countries prioritize and actively pursue the fortification of their institutional governance mechanisms. This strategic approach is deemed crucial in efficaciously counteracting the escalation of capital flight. Specifically, a targeted focus on augmenting institutional governance practices, fostering transparency, fortifying anti-corruption measures, and intensifying counterterrorism efforts could collectively contribute to reducing capital flight tendencies. By undertaking these recommendations, South Asian governments can foster an environment of enhanced economic stability, attractiveness for investment, and sustainable growth, thereby deterring the adverse impact of capital flight while concurrently combatting the underlying challenges posed by terrorism and corruption.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在世界范围内发生的大量恐怖袭击事件中,恐怖主义呈现出组织合作的趋势,对反恐努力提出了巨大挑战。调查全球恐怖组织合作的趋势和模式,提出有效实施和限制恐怖袭击的有效措施,根据全球恐怖主义数据库和联合国制裁恐怖组织名单,这项研究从2001年至2018年全球发生的119,803次恐怖袭击中构建了恐怖组织的合作进化网络。从网络特征来评价世界范围内恐怖合作的演变,包括关键节点,凝聚力,和图案。网络不断扩大,每年都有大量新节点出现。平均而言,每年有13个额外的组织进入协作网络,年生存率约为34.66%,节点重要性等级频繁迭代更新。通过k核分解,其中网络的崩溃从三个分区增加到五个分区,我们发现,恐怖组织合作网络的核心变化比边缘变化的频率要小得多。网络的主要模态结构是“星”主题(90%),和“三元封闭”图案(9%)。我们的结论是,随着时间的推移,恐怖组织的合作网络逐渐演变成星状网络集群,各种组织作为网络的中心,并在各自的社区中显示出核心-外围结构。核心组织是高度连接和稳定的,而外围组织是松散连接和高度可变的。
    Terrorism has shown a trend of organizational cooperation in a large number of terrorist attacks around the world, posting a great challenge to counter-terrorism efforts. To investigate the trend and pattern of global terrorist organizational cooperations and to propose effective measures for effectively enforcing and restricting terrorist attacks, based on the Global Terrorism Database and the UN sanctions list of terrorist groups, this study constructs a cooperative evolutionary network of terrorist organizations from 119,803 terrorist attacks that occurred globally between 2001 and 2018. The evolution of worldwide terrorist cooperation is evaluated in terms of network characteristics, including key nodes, cohesion, and motifs. The network keeps expanding, with a large number of new nodes emerging each year. On average, there are 13 additional organizations entering in the collaboration network each year, with a yearly survival rate of about 34.66%, and the rank of node importance iterate and update frequently. Through k-core decomposition, for which the breakdown of the network has increased from three to five partitions, we find that the core of the terrorist organization\'s cooperation network changes much less frequently than the edges. The dominating modal structure of the network is the \"star\" motif (90%), and \"triadic closed\" motif (9%). We conclude that, over time, the cooperative network of terrorist groups has gradually evolved into a cluster of star-shaped networks, with various organizations serving as the centers of the networks and showing core-periphery structure in their individual communities. The core organizations are highly connected and stable, whereas the periphery organizations are loosely connected and highly variable.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    尽管现有研究广泛调查了信息和通信技术以及社会资本对可持续发展的影响,文献忽略了它们的相互作用效应在排放水平中的作用。为了填补现有ICT环境文献中的这一空白,本文分析了ICT的影响,社会资本,恐怖主义,利用面板数据模型对2005-2022年亚洲和中东国家的可持续发展和收入进行分析。研究结果表明,ICT和教育显著减少了二氧化碳排放,而收入增加了二氧化碳排放量。此外,创新,贸易,和金融发展减少了增加ICT带来的二氧化碳排放。研究结果表明,信通技术是增加收入和社会资本以及改善可持续发展投资的重要因素。与亚洲国家相比,该地区的经济对互联网用户的影响要严重得多。尽管如此,根据本研究的政策建议,亚洲和中东各国政府应加大对技术和其他系统的投资,以利用技术并实现可持续发展。
    Even though the existing studies have extensively investigated the impacts of information and communication technology and social capital on sustainable development, the literature overlooks the role of their interaction effect in the level of emissions. To fill this gap in the existing body of ICT-environment literature, this article analyzes the impact of ICT, social capital, terrorism, and income on sustainable development using panel data model for Asian and Middle East countries from 2005 to 2022. The findings show that ICT and education significantly reduce CO2 emissions, while income increases the CO2 emissions. Moreover, innovation, trade, and financial development reduce the CO2 emission from increased ICT. The findings suggest that ICT is an important factor in increasing income and social capital and improving investment in sustainable development. The region\'s economies have far more serious consequences for internet users than those of Asian countries. Nonetheless, according to the policy recommendations of this study, governments in Asia and the Middle East should invest more in technology and other systems to take advantage of technology and achieve sustainable development.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    人类安全在21世纪受到恐怖主义的威胁。一个快速增长的研究领域旨在了解反恐政策的恐怖袭击模式。现有的研究旨在从单一角度预测恐怖主义,通常只使用背景背景信息或恐怖组织过去的攻击,已经达到了极限。这里,我们提出了一个集成的深度学习框架,它结合了过去被攻击地点的背景背景,社交网络,以及个别恐怖团体过去的行动,以发现恐怖团体的行为模式。结果表明,我们的框架在不同的时空分辨率下优于传统的基础模型。Further,我们的模型可以预测活跃恐怖组织的未来目标,以识别高风险区域,并为特定恐怖组织依次提供其他与攻击相关的信息。我们的发现强调,深度学习方法和多标量数据的结合可以为恐怖主义和其他有组织暴力犯罪提供开创性的见解。
    Human security is threatened by terrorism in the 21st century. A rapidly growing field of study aims to understand terrorist attack patterns for counter-terrorism policies. Existing research aimed at predicting terrorism from a single perspective, typically employing only background contextual information or past attacks of terrorist groups, has reached its limits. Here, we propose an integrated deep-learning framework that incorporates the background context of past attacked locations, social networks, and past actions of individual terrorist groups to discover the behavior patterns of terrorist groups. The results show that our framework outperforms the conventional base model at different spatio-temporal resolutions. Further, our model can project future targets of active terrorist groups to identify high-risk areas and offer other attack-related information in sequence for a specific terrorist group. Our findings highlight that the combination of a deep-learning approach and multi-scalar data can provide groundbreaking insights into terrorism and other organized violent crimes.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    猖獗的恐怖主义对世界许多国家的国家安全构成严重威胁,特别是由于分裂主义和极端民族主义。本文重点研究了时间自激点过程模型在三个国家的恐怖数据中的开发和应用:美国,土耳其,和菲律宾。要考虑具有相同时间戳的事件,本文介绍了参数选择中的顺序标记和奖励项。奖励项考虑相同时间戳但不同顺序的事件之间的触发效果。此外,本文提供了基于日和基于月的到达时间生成的自激励模型之间的比较。本文的另一个亮点是开发了一个模型,使用模拟和机器学习的组合来预测恐怖事件的数量,特别是随机森林方法,实现更好的预测。这项研究提供了一种发现恐怖事件模式和预测未来恐怖事件发生的有见地的方法,这可能对国家安全战略有实际应用。
    Rampant terrorism poses a serious threat to the national security of many countries worldwide, particularly due to separatism and extreme nationalism. This paper focuses on the development and application of a temporal self-exciting point process model to the terror data of three countries: the US, Turkey, and the Philippines. To account for occurrences with the same time-stamp, this paper introduces the order mark and reward term in parameter selection. The reward term considers the triggering effect between events in the same time-stamp but different order. Additionally, this paper provides comparisons between the self-exciting models generated by day-based and month-based arrival times. Another highlight of this paper is the development of a model to predict the number of terror events using a combination of simulation and machine learning, specifically the random forest method, to achieve better predictions. This research offers an insightful approach to discover terror event patterns and forecast future occurrences of terror events, which may have practical application towards national security strategies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    为了防止和打击恐怖主义,一个新的研究领域被称为恐怖主义融资。一个重要方面是非营利组织资助恐怖主义,通过转移资金,恐怖分子联盟,滥用非营利组织,招募恐怖分子,以及虚假的非营利组织和代理人。因此,制定了非营利组织反恐融资战略,考虑四个主要方面:预警信息指标,内部管理机制,国际合作和信息共享,和反恐融资立法。本文为非营利组织的恐怖融资监管提供了新的思路。首先,应该收集实际案例,并为监管机构和非营利组织建立可行的警告指标。第二,应加强内部管理机制,积极防止非营利组织内部的恐怖活动。第三,鉴于非营利组织和恐怖组织的全球活动,必须强调信息主导的国际合作。第四,从独立反恐融资立法的角度,NPO反恐融资立法应填补这一空白。
    In order to prevent and fight terrorism, a new research area has developed called terrorist financing. An important aspect is the financing of terrorism by Non-Profit Organization (NPO), through transfer funds, terrorist alliances, abuse of NPOs, terrorist recruitment, and false NPOs and agents. Therefore, the NPO counter-terrorist financing strategy was established, considering four major aspects: warning information indicators, internal management mechanisms, international cooperation and information sharing, and counter-terrorist Financing legislation. This paper provides a new way to supervise the terrorist financing of NPOs. First, actual cases should be collected, and viable warning indicators for regulatory agencies and NPOs should be established. Second, internal management mechanisms should be strengthened to actively prevent terrorist activities within NPOs. Third, given the global activity of NPOs and terrorist organizations, information-led international cooperation must be emphasized. Fourth, from the angle of independent counter-terrorist Financing legislation, the gap should be filled in NPO counter-terrorist Financing legislation.
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  • 文章类型: Systematic Review
    要了解现有的分诊算法,通过比较,提出改进措施,以更好地应对生物恐怖主义造成的大规模伤亡事件。
    系统评价。
    Medline,截至2022年1月,搜索了Scopus和WebofScience。大量伤亡生物恐怖主义的分诊算法研究。使用国际叙事系统评估工具进行质量评估。数据提取由四名审阅者进行。
    在搜索中确定的475个标题中,包括10项研究。有四项关于大多数生物恐怖主义事件的分诊算法的研究,关于炭疽分诊算法的四项研究和关于生物恐怖主义事件引起的心理或心理社会问题的分诊算法的两项研究。我们介绍并比较了用于不同生物恐怖主义情况的10种分类算法。
    对于大多数生物恐怖主义事件的分类算法,有必要尽快确定攻击的时间和地点,控制暴露和潜在暴露人群的数量,预防感染并确定所用生物制剂的类型。需要继续研究净化对生物恐怖袭击的影响。炭疽分诊,未来的研究应改善吸入性炭疽症状和常见疾病症状之间的区别,并提高分诊措施的效率。应更多关注由生物恐怖主义事件引起的心理或社会心理问题的分类算法。
    To understand existing triage algorithms, propose improvement measures through comparison to better deal with mass-casualty incidents caused by bioterrorism.
    Systematic review.
    Medline, Scopus and Web of Science were searched up to January 2022. The studies investigating triage algorithms for mass-casualty bioterrorism. Quality assessment was performed using the International Narrative Systematic Assessment tool. Data extractions were performed by four reviewers.
    Of the 475 titles identified in the search, 10 studies were included. There were four studies on triage algorithms for most bioterrorism events, four studies on triage algorithms for anthrax and two studies on triage algorithms for mental or psychosocial problems caused by bioterrorism events. We introduced and compared 10 triage algorithms used for different bioterrorism situations.
    For triage algorithms for most bioterrorism events, it is necessary to determine the time and place of the attack as soon as possible, control the number of exposed and potentially exposed people, prevent infection and determine the type of biological agents used. Research on the effects of decontamination on bioterrorism attacks needs to continue. For anthrax triage, future research should improve the distinction between inhalational anthrax symptoms and common disease symptoms and improve the efficiency of triage measures. More attention should be paid to triage algorithms for mental or psychosocial problems caused by bioterrorism events.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    COVID-19等流行病的爆发可能导致全球系统性风险的级联效应。为了对抗持续的流行病,政府资源主要用于支持公共和经济的健康。这种注意力的转移可能导致恐怖分子利用的安全漏洞。鉴于此,大流行期间的反恐对全球社会的安全和福祉至关重要。最值得注意的是,潜在目标之间的人口流动可能会随着健康危机的趋势而变化,这导致目标估值的波动。在这种情况下,后卫面临的一个新挑战是在估值不断变化的目标之间优化分配他/她的资源,他/她的意图是尽量减少潜在恐怖袭击的预期损失。为了应对这一挑战,在本文中,我们首先以顺序形式开发防御者-攻击者游戏,由于大流行,目标估值可能会发生变化。然后,我们从动态目标估值的角度分析了大流行对反恐资源配置的影响。最后,我们提供了一些例子来展示理论结果,并给出一个案例研究来说明我们提出的模型在大流行期间的可用性。
    The outbreak of pandemics such as COVID-19 can result in cascading effects for global systemic risk. To combat an ongoing pandemic, governmental resources are largely allocated toward supporting the health of the public and economy. This shift in attention can lead to security vulnerabilities which are exploited by terrorists. In view of this, counterterrorism during a pandemic is of critical interest to the safety and well-being of the global society. Most notably, the population flows among potential targets are likely to change in conjunction with the trend of the health crisis, which leads to fluctuations in target valuations. In this situation, a new challenge for the defender is to optimally allocate his/her resources among targets that have changing valuations, where his/her intention is to minimize the expected losses from potential terrorist attacks. In order to deal with this challenge, in this paper, we first develop a defender-attacker game in sequential form, where the target valuations can change as a result of the pandemic. Then we analyze the effects of a pandemic on counterterrorism resource allocation from the perspective of dynamic target valuations. Finally, we provide some examples to display the theoretical results, and present a case study to illustrate the usability of our proposed model during a pandemic.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    旅游业受到各种危机的影响,无论大小。尽管许多研究已经研究了旅游危机,最关注到达和离开的游客数量。由于缺乏信息,由各种危机引起的游客行为的适应性差异尚未得到很好的理解。说到入境旅游,金融和健康相关的危机会显著影响该国的游客形象和游客的消费习惯。研究结果表明,健康危机对旅游业具有显著的正向影响。此外,COVID_死亡和COVID_确认_病例减少了发达国家和发展中国家的国际旅游业。根据研究结果,游客对危机的敏感性在短途和长途市场之间有所不同。证据表明,金融包容性对中国旅游业发展的各个方面都有显著的正向影响。因此,本文为可持续旅游管理提供了许多政策和实践建议。
    Tourism is impacted by all types of crises, no matter how big or small. Even though many studies have examined tourism crises, most focus on the number of tourists arriving and departing. As a result of this lack of information, The adaptive differences in tourist behavior caused by various crises are not well understood. When it comes to inbound tourism, the financial and health-related crisis can significantly impact the tourist profile of the country and its visitors\' spending habits. The findings show that the health crisis has a significant positive impact on tourism. Moreover, COVID_deaths and COVID_confirm_cases decrease the international tourism in developed and developing countries. According to the study\'s findings, tourists\' sensitivity to crises varies between short- and long-haul markets. The evidence shows that financial inclusion has a significant positive impact on various aspects of tourism development in China. Hence, this article offers numerous policy and practical suggestions for sustainable tourism management.
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