■原发性血小板增多症(ET),骨髓增殖性肿瘤(MPN),有很大的风险演变成原发性血小板增多症骨髓纤维化(后ETMF)。本研究旨在建立预测列线图,以早期预测ET患者的ET后MF。
培训队列包括2010年1月1日至2023年5月1日来自8个血液学中心的558名患者,而外部验证队列包括2010年1月1日至2023年5月1日来自另外6个血液学中心的165名患者。进行单变量和多变量Cox回归分析以确定独立的危险因素,并建立列线图来预测ET后无MF生存。曲线下的偏置校正面积(AUC),校准曲线和一致性指数(C指数)用于评估列线图的预测准确性.
■多变量Cox回归表明红细胞分布宽度(RDW)升高,乳酸脱氢酶(LDH)和血红蛋白(Hb)水平升高,吸烟史和脾肿大是ET后MF的独立危险因素.训练和验证队列显示的C指数为0.877和0.853。五年,训练和外部验证队列的10年AUC值分别为0.948、0.769和0.978、0.804。偏差校正曲线与理想曲线接近,揭示了实际观测与预测的高度一致性。
■我们开发了能够预测ET患者5年和10年无ETMF生存概率的列线图。该工具可帮助医生识别需要密切监测和适当咨询的患者。
■本研究由浙江省重点研发计划(编号:2022C03137);浙江省公共技术应用研究项目,中国(编号LGF21H080003);以及浙江省医学会临床医学研究专项资金项目(编号:2022ZYC-D09)。
UNASSIGNED: Essential thrombocythemia (ET), a myeloproliferative neoplasm (MPN), has a substantial risk of evolving into post-essential thrombocythemia myelofibrosis (post-ET MF). This study aims to establish a prediction nomogram for early prediction of post-ET MF in ET patients.
UNASSIGNED: The training cohort comprised 558 patients from 8 haematology centres between January 1, 2010, and May 1, 2023, while the external validation cohort consisted of 165 patients from 6 additional haematology centres between January 1, 2010, and May 1, 2023. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression analysis was performed to identified independent risk factors and establish a nomogram to predict the post-ET MF free survival. Both bias-corrected area under the curve (AUC), calibration curves and concordance index (C-index) were employed to assess the predictive accuracy of the nomogram.
UNASSIGNED: Multivariate Cox regression demonstrated that elevated red blood cell distribution width (RDW), elevated levels of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and the level of haemoglobin (Hb), a history of smoking and the presence of splenomegaly were independent risk factors for post-ET MF. The C-index displayed of the training and validation cohorts were 0.877 and 0.853. The 5 years, 10 years AUC values in training and external validation cohorts were 0.948, 0.769 and 0.978, 0.804 respectively. Bias-corrected curve is close to the ideal curve and revealed a strong consistency between actual observation and prediction.
UNASSIGNED: We developed a nomogram capable of predicting the post-ET MF free survival probability at 5 years and 10 years in ET patients. This tool helps doctors identify patients who need close monitoring and appropriate counselling.
UNASSIGNED: This research was funded by the Key R&D Program of Zhejiang (No. 2022C03137); the Public Technology Application Research Program of Zhejiang,
China (No. LGF21H080003); and the Zhejiang Medical Association Clinical Medical Research special fund project (No. 2022ZYC-D09).