PPV, positive predictive value

PPV,阳性预测值
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    未经证实:制定并验证诊断评分,以确定不明原因发热(FUO)中的成人起病斯蒂尔病(AOSD)。
    未经评估:单个中心,2018年1月至2021年12月FUO住院患者的回顾性病例对照研究。使用来自178例AOSD和486例FUO的临床和实验室数据,我们使用贝叶斯模型平均方法开发了AOSD/FUO(AF)评分。AF评分和Yamaguchi标准通过敏感度评估,特异性,准确度,以及在发育和验证样本中AOSD诊断的阳性/阴性预测值。
    UNASSIGNED:AOSD组皮疹患者的持续瘙痒性皮疹(PPEs)高于FUO组(52.3%vs7.4%;P<0.01)。PPEs的特异性为97.5%,灵敏度为44.9%。AF评分=PPEs×3.795+消退皮疹×2.774+血清铁蛋白×1.678+肌痛×0.958+中性粒细胞计数×0.185+血小板计数×0.004。截止值≥5.245显示,在验证组中区分AOSD和FUO的最大灵敏度为88.7%,特异性为95.8%。与山口标准相比,AF评分将准确率从82.6%提高到93.3%。
    UNASSIGNED:我们开发并验证了一种新的评分,该评分可以比Yamaguchi的标准更高的分类精度来识别FUO中的AOSD。未来需要设计多中心前瞻性研究来确认AF评分的诊断价值。
    UNASSIGNED: To develop and validate a diagnostic score to identify adult-onset Still\'s disease (AOSD) in fever of unknown origin (FUO).
    UNASSIGNED: A single center, retrospective case-control study of inpatients with FUO from January 2018 to December 2021. Using clinical and laboratory data from 178 cases with AOSD and 486 cases with FUO, we developed an AOSD/FUO (AF) score with a Bayesian Model Averaging approach. AF score and Yamaguchi\'s criteria were evaluated by sensitivity, specificity, accuracy, and positive/negative predictive value for diagnosis of AOSD in developmental and validation samples.
    UNASSIGNED: Persistent pruritic eruptions (PPEs) in patients with rashes was higher in AOSD group than FUO group (52.3% vs 7.4%; P < 0.01). PPEs yielded a specificity of 97.5% and a sensitivity of 44.9%. AF score = PPEs × 3.795+Evanescent rash × 2.774+Serum ferritin × 1.678+Myalgia × 0.958+Neutrophil count × 0.185+Platelet count × 0.004. A cut-off value ≥ 5.245 revealed the maximizing sensitivity of 88.7% and specificity of 95.8% in discriminating AOSD from FUO in the validation group. And AF score improved the accuracy from 82.6% to 93.3% compared with Yamaguchi\'s criteria.
    UNASSIGNED: We developed and validated a new score which can identify AOSD in FUO with higher classification accuracy than Yamaguchi\'s criteria. Future multi-centric prospective studies need to be designed to confirm the diagnosis value of AF score.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    未经证实:急性-慢性肝功能衰竭(ACLF)是急性失代偿(AD)和ACLF之间的明显中间阶段。然而,识别前ACLF患者和预测从AD到ACLF的进展是困难的.本研究旨在在28天内识别前ACLF,并开发和验证HBV相关失代偿期肝硬化患者ACLF的预测模型。
    未经批准:总共,1,736例HBV相关性肝硬化和AD患者从2个大规模,多中心,前瞻性队列。28天内发生ACLF,重新接纳,收集3个月和1年结局.
    UASSIGNED:在衍生队列中970例无ACLF的AD患者中,94例(9.6%)ACLF前患者的3个月和1年无LT死亡率最高(61.6%和70.9%,分别),这与ACLF在入学时(57.1%和67.1%)相当;251(25.9%)不稳定失代偿期肝硬化患者的死亡率为22.4%和32.1%,分别;而507例(57.9%)稳定的失代偿期肝硬化患者的结局最好(1年死亡率为2.6%)。通过Cox比例风险回归,特定的沉淀剂,包括乙肝病毒再激活的乙肝病毒耀斑,自发性乙型肝炎耀斑病毒载量高,HBV叠加感染,和细菌感染,在派生队列中被确定为与ACLF发生显著相关。一个包含沉淀剂的模型,在推导和验证队列中,全身性炎症和器官损伤的指标达到了0.90和0.86的高C指数,分别。最佳临界值(0.22)区分高风险和低风险患者,阴性预测值为0.95。
    UNASSIGNED:在HBV病因人群中验证了AD患者的三个不同的临床过程。沉淀剂显著影响AD-ACLF转变。由诱发性-全身性炎症-器官损伤框架开发的模型可能是预测ACLF发生的有用工具。
    UNASSIGNED:NCT02457637和NCT03641872。
    UNASSIGNED:以前的研究表明,失代偿期肝硬化患者可以根据其短期临床预后分为3组。在这里,我们表明,这种分层适用于因乙型肝炎病毒感染而发展为肝硬化的患者。我们还开发了一种基于沉淀剂的模型(即,结合有关代偿失调的确切原因的信息的模型),可以预测这些患者发展为称为慢性急性肝衰竭(或ACLF)的非常严重的肝病的可能性。
    UNASSIGNED: Pre-acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) is a distinct intermediate stage between acute decompensation (AD) and ACLF. However, identifying patients with pre-ACLF and predicting progression from AD to ACLF is difficult. This study aimed to identify pre-ACLF within 28 days, and to develop and validate a prediction model for ACLF in patients with HBV-related decompensated cirrhosis.
    UNASSIGNED: In total, 1,736 patients with HBV-related cirrhosis and AD were enrolled from 2 large-scale, multicenter, prospective cohorts. ACLF occurrence within 28 days, readmission, and 3-month and 1-year outcomes were collected.
    UNASSIGNED: Among 970 patients with AD without ACLF in the derivation cohort, the 94 (9.6%) patients with pre-ACLF had the highest 3-month and 1-year LT-free mortality (61.6% and 70.9%, respectively), which was comparable to those with ACLF at enrollment (57.1% and 67.1%); the 251 (25.9%) patients with unstable decompensated cirrhosis had mortality rates of 22.4% and 32.1%, respectively; while the 507 (57.9%) patients with stable decompensated cirrhosis had the best outcomes (1-year mortality rate of 2.6%). Through Cox proportional hazard regression, specific precipitants, including hepatitis B flare with HBV reactivation, spontaneous hepatitis B flare with high viral load, superimposed infection on HBV, and bacterial infection, were identified to be significantly associated with ACLF occurrence in the derivation cohort. A model that incorporated precipitants, indicators of systemic inflammation and organ injuries reached a high C-index of 0.90 and 0.86 in derivation and validation cohorts, respectively. The optimal cut-off value (0.22) differentiated high-risk and low-risk patients, with a negative predictive value of 0.95.
    UNASSIGNED: Three distinct clinical courses of patients with AD are validated in the HBV-etiology population. The precipitants significantly impact on AD-ACLF transition. A model developed by the precipitant-systemic inflammation-organ injury framework could be a useful tool for predicting ACLF occurrence.
    UNASSIGNED: NCT02457637 and NCT03641872.
    UNASSIGNED: It was previously shown that patients with decompensated cirrhosis could be stratified into 3 groups based on their short-term clinical prognoses. Herein, we showed that this stratification applies to patients who develop cirrhosis as a result of hepatitis B virus infection. We also developed a precipitant-based model (i.e. a model that incorporated information about the exact cause of decompensation) that could predict the likelihood of these patients developing a very severe liver disease called acute-on-chronic liver failure (or ACLF).
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    UNASSIGNED:评估氟18(18F)标记的前列腺特异性膜抗原(PSMA)-1007正电子发射断层扫描/磁共振成像(PET/MRI)的诊断价值,并与双参数MRI(bpMRI)的诊断价值。
    UNASSIGNED:该研究纳入了29例疑似PCa患者,术前接受了18F-PSMA-1007PET/MRI检查,随后对疑似PCa病变进行了靶向活检。两名读者独立评估了每个可疑PCa病变的图像,并在bpMRI和18F-PSMA-1007PET/MRI上确定了其总体评估类别。通过使用活检组织病理学作为参考标准,我们确定了18F-PSMA-1007PET/MRI和bpMRI检测PCa病变的准确性.此外,得出了用于检测PCa病变的最佳标准化摄取值(SUVmax)和表观扩散系数(ADC)的半定量参数的受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线,并报告了它们与国际泌尿外科病理学会(ISUP)等级的相关性。
    未经证实:在29例患者的48个疑似PCa病变中,38例病理诊断为临床上有意义的PCa,10例诊断为非前列腺癌(非PCa)病变。与病理结果相比,18F-PSMA-1007PET/MRI显示出更高的诊断准确性(曲线下面积,AUC),灵敏度,特异性,正预测值,阴性预测值比bpMRI:0.974对0.711,94.74%对92.11%,100%对50%,100%对87.50%,分别为83.33%和62.50%,分别。SUVmax的半定量参数显示出0.874的AUC高于0.776的ADC检测PCa的AUC。在Spearman的rho相关系数(Rho)=0.539,p=0时,ISUP等级与SUVmax呈正相关,但与ADC无关(Rho=-0.105,p=0.529)。
    UNASSIGNED:18F-PSMA-1007PET/MRI对检测PCa的诊断价值优于bpMRI,并且高SUVmax可以指示具有高ISUP等级的病变。
    UNASSIGNED: To assess the diagnostic value of fluorine 18 (18F)-labeled prostate-specific membrane antigen (PSMA)-1007 Positron emission tomography/Magnetic resonance imaging (PET/MRI) and compared with that of biparametric MRI (bpMRI) for the detection of prostate cancer (PCa).
    UNASSIGNED: The study enrolled 29 patients with suspected PCa preoperatively who underwent 18F-PSMA-1007 PET/MRI and subsequent targeted biopsy for suspected PCa lesions. Two readers independently assessed the images of each suspected PCa lesion and determined their overall assessment category on bpMRI and 18F-PSMA-1007 PET/MRI. By using biopsy histopathology as the reference standard, the accuracies of 18F-PSMA-1007 PET/MRI and bpMRI for the detection of PCa lesion were determined. Furthermore, the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves of their semi-quantitative parameters of the optimal standardized uptake value (SUVmax) and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) for detecting PCa lesions were derived, and their correlations with the International Society of Urological Pathology (ISUP) grade were reported.
    UNASSIGNED: Of the 48 suspected PCa lesions in 29 patients, 38 were pathologically diagnosed with clinically significant PCa and 10 with nonprostate cancer (non-PCa) lesions. Compared with the pathological results, 18F-PSMA-1007 PET/MRI demonstrated much greater diagnostic accuracy (area under the curve, AUC), sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value than bpMRI: 0.974 versus 0.711, 94.74% versus 92.11%, 100% versus 50%, 100% versus 87.50%, and 83.33% versus 62.50%, respectively. The semi-quantitative parameters of SUVmax demonstrated a higher AUC of 0.874 than that of ADC with 0.776 for detecting PCa. The ISUP grade was positively associated with SUVmax at spearman\'s rho correlation coefficient (Rho) = 0.539, p = 0), but not associated with ADC (Rho = -0.105, p = 0.529).
    UNASSIGNED: The diagnostic value of 18F-PSMA-1007 PET/MRI for the detection of PCa is better than that of bpMRI, and a high SUVmax may indicate a lesion with a high ISUP grade.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    尽管视觉功能障碍是帕金森病(PD)患者中最常见的非运动症状之一,目前尚不清楚视力损害(VI)是否早于临床PD的发病。因此,我们的目的是在英国生物库研究中研究VI与PD未来发展的关系。
    英国生物库研究是最大的健康队列研究之一,在2006年至2010年之间,英国招募了超过500,000名年龄在40-69岁之间的参与者。VI被定义为习惯性的远距视力(VA)比视力较好的眼睛的最小分辨率角(LogMAR)的0·3对数差。PD的事件病例由自我报告数据确定,住院记录或死亡记录,以先到者为准。使用多变量Cox比例风险回归模型来研究VI与PD事件风险之间的关系。
    在基线评估中,共有117,050名参与者没有PD。在5·96(IQR:5·77-6·23)年的中位观察期内,222例(0·19%)参与者发生PD。视力受损的参与者比非VI参与者发生PD的风险更高(p<0·001)。与非VI组相比,VI组的校正风险比为2·28(95%CI1·29-4·05,p=0·005).这些结果在敏感性分析中是一致的,排除在基线评估后一年内确诊的PD事件病例.
    这项队列研究发现,VI与发生PD的风险增加有关,提示VI可能是预防未来PD的可改变的危险因素。
    UNASSIGNED: Although visual dysfunction is one of the most common non-motor symptoms among patients with Parkinson\'s disease (PD), it is not known whether visual impairment (VI) predates the onset of clinical PD. Therefore, we aim to examine the association of VI with the future development of PD in the UK Biobank Study.
    UNASSIGNED: The UK Biobank Study is one of the largest cohort studies of health, enrolling over 500,000 participants aged 40-69 years between 2006 and 2010 across the UK. VI was defined as a habitual distance visual acuity (VA) worse than 0·3 logarithm of the minimum angle of resolution (LogMAR) in the better-seeing eye. Incident cases of PD were determined by self report data, hospital admission records or death records, whichever came first. Multivariable Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to investigate the association between VI and the risk of incident PD.
    UNASSIGNED: A total of 117,050 participants were free of PD at the baseline assessment. During the median observation period of 5·96 (IQR: 5·77-6·23) years, PD occurred in 222 (0·19%) participants. Visually impaired participants were at a higher risk of developing PD than non-VI participants (p < 0·001). Compared with the non-VI group, the adjusted hazard ratio was 2·28 (95% CI 1·29-4·05, p = 0·005) in the VI group. These results were consistent in the sensitivity analysis, where incident PD cases diagnosed within one year after the baseline assessment were excluded.
    UNASSIGNED: This cohort study found that VI was associated with an increased risk of incident PD, suggesting that VI may serve as a modifiable risk factor for prevention of future PD.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    UNASSIGNED: There is an unmet need for non-invasive biomarkers for the diagnosis of nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) in non-specialized settings. We aimed to develop and validate a non-invasive test for diagnosing NASH in individuals with biopsy-proven nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).
    UNASSIGNED: We developed a non-invasive test named the acNASH index that combines serum creatinine and aspartate aminotransferase levels in a derivation cohort of 390 Chinese NAFLD patients admitted to the hepatology center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Wenzhou Medical University (China) between December 2016 and September 2019 and subsequently validated in five external cohorts of different ethnicities of patients with biopsy-confirmed NAFLD (pooled n=1,089).
    UNASSIGNED: The performance of the acNASH index for identifying NASH (defined as NAFLD activity score ≥5 with score of ≥1 for each steatosis, lobular inflammation and ballooning) was good in the derivation cohort with an area under receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) of 0·818 (95%CI 0·777-0·860). A cutoff of acNASH index <4·15 gave a sensitivity (Se) of 91%, a specificity (Sp) of 48% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 83% for ruling-out NASH, conversely, a cutoff of acNASH >7·73 gave a Sp of 91%, Se of 53% and a positive predictive value (PPV) of 85% for ruling-in NASH. In the pooled validation cohort (n=1,089), the diagnostic performance of the index was also good with AUROC=0·805 (95%CI 0·780-0·830), NPV of 93% for ruling-out NASH and PPV of 73% for ruling-in NASH. Subgroup analyses showed similar performance in patients with diabetes or subjects with normal serum transaminase levels.
    UNASSIGNED: The acNASH index shows promising utility as a simple non-invasive biomarker for diagnosing NASH among adults with biopsy-proven NAFLD of different ethnicities from different countries.
    UNASSIGNED: The National Natural Science Foundation of China (82070588), High Level Creative Talents from Department of Public Health in Zhejiang Province (S2032102600032) and Project of New Century 551 Talent Nurturing in Wenzhou.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    COVID-19的严重程度预测仍然是正在进行的大流行的主要临床挑战之一。这里,我们招募了144例COVID-19患者队列,得出一个数据矩阵,其中包含52天内124种测量的3,065个读数。建立了基于队列的机器学习模型来预测疾病进展,包括训练,验证,和内部测试集。一组11个常规临床因素构建了一个用于COVID-19严重程度预测的分类器,在发现集中实现98%以上的准确率。在包含25名患者的独立队列中验证模型的准确度达到80%。整体灵敏度,特异性,阳性预测值(PPV),阴性预测值(NPV)分别为0.70、0.99、0.93和0.93。我们的模型捕获了乳酸脱氢酶(LDH)和肌酸激酶(CK)的预测动力学,而它们的水平在正常范围内。此模型可在https://www访问。guomics.com/covidAI/用于研究目的。
    Severity prediction of COVID-19 remains one of the major clinical challenges for the ongoing pandemic. Here, we have recruited a 144 COVID-19 patient cohort, resulting in a data matrix containing 3,065 readings for 124 types of measurements over 52 days. A machine learning model was established to predict the disease progression based on the cohort consisting of training, validation, and internal test sets. A panel of eleven routine clinical factors constructed a classifier for COVID-19 severity prediction, achieving accuracy of over 98% in the discovery set. Validation of the model in an independent cohort containing 25 patients achieved accuracy of 80%. The overall sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) were 0.70, 0.99, 0.93, and 0.93, respectively. Our model captured predictive dynamics of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and creatine kinase (CK) while their levels were in the normal range. This model is accessible at https://www.guomics.com/covidAI/ for research purpose.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    UNASSIGNED: Little is known about atopic dermatitis (AD) among children in Puerto Rico.
    UNASSIGNED: To examine risk factors and identify approaches to better diagnose AD in Puerto Rican children.
    UNASSIGNED: Case-control study of AD among 540 children aged 6-14 years in San Juan, Puerto Rico. AD was defined as: 1) physician-diagnosed AD, 2) RAST-AD: AD symptoms plus ≥1 positive IgE to allergens, and 3) STR-AD: AD-symptoms and skin test reactivity to ≥1 allergen. Logistic regression was used for the multivariable analysis. We also evaluated the diagnostic performance of various approaches by comparing their sensitivity, specificity, positive predicted value [PPV], negative predictive value [NPV], and area under curve [AUC]).
    UNASSIGNED: Of the 70 children with STR-AD, only 5 (7.1%) had PD-AD. In children without asthma, a positive IgE to Dermatophagoides (D.) pteronyssinus and signs of mold/mildew at home were significantly associated with 3.3 and 5 times increased odds of STR-AD, respectively. Among children with asthma, private/employer-based health insurance and a positive IgE to D. pteronyssinus were each significantly associated with approximately twofold increased odds of STR-AD. A combination of current eczema symptoms and a positive IgE to D. pteronyssinus yielded a sensitivity ≥ 70%, specificity and NPV ≥ 95%, PPV ≥ 88%, and an AUC ≥ 0.85 for STR-AD. Replacing a positive IgE to D. pteronyssinus with a positive IgE to ≥1 allergen slightly increased sensitivity without affecting other parameters.
    UNASSIGNED: AD is markedly under-diagnosed by physicians in Puerto Rico. This could be improved by assessing eczema symptoms and measuring IgEs to common allergens.
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