未经授权:按奖牌榜排名是奥运会的流行特征,但是,在针对个别国家无法控制的主要因素调整统计数据之前,这种排名对体育实力或参与度的衡量不佳。在这里,我们估计和调整总人口的影响,经济以人均国内生产总值表示,女性奖牌总数的绝对纬度和穆斯林人口比例,男性,平昌冬季和东京夏季奥运会和残奥会的混合和所有项目。
UNASSIGNED:统计模型为多元线性过分散泊松回归。人口和经济进行了对数转换;它们的线性效应以百分比单位的百分比表示,并以两个国家间标准偏差(SD)的因子效应来评估。将绝对纬度的线性效应表示为30°(约2SD)的因子效应,并进行评估。穆斯林比例的线性效应表示为100%与100%的因子效应。0%穆斯林。国家是根据实际与预测所有项目的奖牌数量。
未经授权:在平昌奥运会上,人口和经济的影响分别为0.7-0.8%/%和1.1-1.7%/%(2SD明确的极大幅度增长),纬度30°的因子效应为11-17(明确的极大增加),100%穆斯林人口的因素效应为0.08-0.69(极大到中等程度的减少,尽管优柔寡断)。东京奥运会的影响程度相似,包括纬度,令人惊讶的是,尽管减少了(大到非常大的增加),但仍然是积极的。平昌和东京残奥会的效果与奥运会的效果大致相似,但是经济的影响减弱了(大到非常大的增长)。在调整了这些效果的奖牌榜之后,在两次冬季运动会上都获得前10名奖牌的国家是奥地利,白俄罗斯,哈萨克斯坦,斯洛伐克和乌克兰,但只有阿塞拜疆在夏季奥运会上都进入了前十名。
UNASSIGNED:根据人口和地理因素调整奖牌数可以对国家进行比较,“体育实力或参与度更符合奥林匹克的公平竞争理想,对国家更有用”奥林匹克资金决定。
UNASSIGNED: Ranking of nations by medal tally is a popular feature of the
Olympics, but such ranking is a poor measure of sporting prowess or engagement until the tallies are adjusted for major factors beyond the control of individual nations. Here we estimate and adjust for effects of total population, economy expressed as gross domestic product per capita, absolute latitude and Muslim population proportion on total medal counts in female, male, mixed and all events at the Pyeongchang winter and Tokyo summer
Olympics and Paralympics.
UNASSIGNED: The statistical model was multiple linear over-dispersed Poisson regression. Population and economy were log-transformed; their linear effects were expressed in percent per percent units and evaluated in magnitude as the factor effects of two between-nation standard deviations (SD). The linear effect of absolute latitude was expressed and evaluated as the factor effect of 30° (approximately 2 SD). The linear effect of Muslim proportion was expressed as the factor effect of 100% vs. 0% Muslim. Nations were ranked on the basis of actual vs. predicted all-events medal counts.
UNASSIGNED: At the Pyeongchang
Olympics, effects of population and economy were 0.7-0.8 %/% and 1.1-1.7 %/% (welldefined extremely large increases for 2 SD), factor effects of 30° of latitude were 11-17 (welldefined extremely large increases), and factor effects of 100% Muslim population were 0.08-0.69 (extremely large to moderate reductions, albeit indecisive). Effects at the Tokyo
Olympics were similar in magnitude, including those of latitude, which were surprisingly still positive although diminished (large to very large increases). Effects at the Pyeongchang and Tokyo Paralympics were generally similar to those at the
Olympics, but the effects of economy were diminished (large to very large increases). After adjustment of medal tallies for these effects, nations that reached the top-10 medalists in both winter games were Austria, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Slovakia and Ukraine, but only Azerbaijan reached the top-10 in both summer games.
UNASSIGNED: Adjusting medal counts for demographic and geographic factors provides a comparison of nations\' sporting prowess or engagement that is more in keeping with the Olympic ideal of fair play and more useful for nations\' Olympic-funding decisions.