像科威特这样的中东沙漠国家以强烈的沙尘暴和巨大的石化行业影响环境空气污染而闻名。然而,由于监测网络有限和缺乏历史暴露数据,当地卫生当局无法评估空气污染对健康的影响。
评估在科威特未充分研究的尘土飞扬的环境中,PM2.5对死亡率的影响。
我们分析了2001年至2016年间,细颗粒物(PM2.5)对科威特每日死亡率的严重影响。要做到这一点,我们使用了该地区PM2.5的时空解析估计值。我们的分析探讨了死亡原因等因素,性别,年龄,和国籍。我们拟合了针对时间趋势调整后的滞后PM2.5的准泊松时间序列回归,季节性,星期几,温度,和相对湿度。
在16年的研究期间,共有70,321例死亡。城市PM2.5的平均值估计为46.2±19.8µg/m3。城市PM2.5的3天移动平均值增加10µg/m3与全因死亡率增加1.19%(95%CI:0.59,1.80%)相关。对于每年PM2.5浓度减少10µg/m3,科威特每年总共可以避免52.3例(95%CI:25.7,79.1)死亡。也就是说,28.6(95%CI:10.3,47.0)科威特人,23.9(95%CI:6.4,41.5)非科威特人,9.4(95%CI:1.2,17.8)儿童,和20.9(95%CI:4.3,37.6)老年人死亡每年。
在海湾和中东,毁灭性的沙尘暴和巨大的石化工业的压倒性流行加剧了解决空气污染及其有害健康影响的紧迫性。令人震惊的是,该地区的流行病学研究落后,受到缺乏地面监测网络和历史暴露数据的阻碍。作为回应,我们正在利用大数据的力量来生成跨时间和空间的空气污染预测模型,在这个研究不足但受严重影响的地区,提供与空气污染相关的死亡负担的重要见解。
Middle Eastern desert countries like
Kuwait are known for intense dust storms and enormous petrochemical industries affecting ambient air pollution. However, local health authorities have not been able to assess the health impacts of air pollution due to limited monitoring networks and a lack of historical exposure data.
To assess the burden of PM2.5 on mortality in the understudied dusty environment of
Kuwait.
We analyzed the acute impact of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) on daily mortality in
Kuwait between 2001 and 2016. To do so, we used spatiotemporally resolved estimates of PM2.5 in the region. Our analysis explored factors such as cause of death, sex, age, and nationality. We fitted quasi-Poisson time-series regression for lagged PM2.5 adjusted for time trend, seasonality, day of the week, temperature, and relative humidity.
There was a total of 70,321 deaths during the study period of 16 years. The average urban PM2.5 was estimated to be 46.2 ± 19.8 µg/m3. A 10 µg/m3 increase in a 3-day moving average of urban PM2.5 was associated with 1.19% (95% CI: 0.59, 1.80%) increase in all-cause mortality. For a 10 µg/m3 reduction in annual PM2.5 concentrations, a total of 52.3 (95% CI: 25.7, 79.1) deaths each year could be averted in
Kuwait. That is, 28.6 (95% CI: 10.3, 47.0) Kuwaitis, 23.9 (95% CI: 6.4, 41.5) non-Kuwaitis, 9.4 (95% CI: 1.2, 17.8) children, and 20.9 (95% CI: 4.3, 37.6) elderly deaths each year.
The overwhelming prevalence of devastating dust storms and enormous petrochemical industries in the Gulf and the Middle East has intensified the urgency to address air pollution and its detrimental health effects. Alarmingly, the region\'s epidemiological research lags behind, hindered by a paucity of ground monitoring networks and historical exposure data. In response, we are harnessing the power of big data to generate predictive models of air pollution across time and space, providing crucial insights into the mortality burden associated with air pollution in this under-researched yet critically impacted area.