极端降水的时空分布及其影响因素是应对未来气候变化的重要依据。采用改良Mann-Kendall趋势检验等方法,对1961-2015年中国西北地区东部极端降水指数(EPIs)的时空变异性及其影响因素进行了研究,赫斯特指数,集成经验模式分解(EEMD),和地理探测器模型。结果显示CDD和CWD显著降低(P<0.01),费率为1.4天/十年和0.07天/十年,分别。ENW中的EPI表现出明显的异质性。CDD从东南向西北逐渐增加。其余的EPI通常表现出相反的趋势。地球探测器结果表明,大尺度环流因子对ENW中的EPI有重大影响。大尺度气候因素对经济影响指数的影响集中在非线性增强,Nino3.4和SO是在EPI变异性中起主要作用的主要驱动因素。本研究结果为ENW及其他干旱半干旱地区应对极端气候和制定相应策略提供了参考。
Spatial and temporal distributions and influencing factors of extreme precipitation are important bases for coping with future climate change. The spatiotemporal variability and affecting factors of extreme precipitation indices (
EPIs) in east of northwest
China (ENW) during 1961-2015 were investigated using a series of approaches such as modified Mann-Kendall trend test, Hurst exponent, ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD), and geodetector model. The results showed that CDD and CWD decreased significantly (P < 0.01), with rates of 1.4 days/decade and 0.07 days/decade, respectively.
EPIs in ENW exhibited an obvious heterogeneity. CDD gradually increased from the southeast to the northwest. The remaining
EPIs generally showed the opposite trend. Geodetector results demonstrated that large-scale circulation factors had a significant impact on EPIs in ENW. The influence of large-scale climate factors on EPIs was concentrated in nonlinear enhancement, and Nino3.4 and SO were the dominant driving factors that played a major role in the variability of
EPIs. The results of this study provided a reference for ENW and other arid and semi-arid regions to cope with extreme climates and develop corresponding strategies.