这是首次尝试在自适应动力学框架下研究与非药物干预（NPI）相关因素和公众身体状况对SARS-CoV-2毒力演变和COVID-19流行趋势的影响。对COVID-19流行的预测与实际情况的定性一致性证明了本模型的合理性。研究表明，提高两个NPI(包括公众警惕性，检疫措施,和住院）和公众的身体状况（包括易感性和恢复速度）有助于降低COVID-19的患病率，但只有提高公众的警惕性和降低公众的易感性，才能降低SARS-CoV-2的毒力。因此,控制接触率和感染率是控制COVID-19流行规模和危害程度的关键。另一方面,控制疫情的最佳方法是提高公众的警惕性和身体状况,因为这两种方法都可以降低COVID-19的患病率和病死率(CFR).此外,检疫措施的加强和住院可能会导致COVID-19的CFR（略有）增加。
This is the first attempt to investigate the effects of the factors related to non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and the physical condition of the public on virulence evolution of SARS-CoV-2 and the trend of the epidemics of COVID-19 under an adaptive dynamics framework. Qualitative agreement of the prediction on the epidemics of COVID-19 with the actual situations convinced the rationality of the present model. The
study showed that enhancing both NPIs (including public vigilance, quarantine measures, and hospitalization) and the physical condition of the public (including susceptibility and recovery speed) contributed to decreasing the prevalence of COVID-19 but only increasing public vigilance and decreasing the susceptibility of the public could also reduce the virulence of SARS-CoV-2. Therefore, controlling the contact rate and infection rate was the key to control not only the epidemic scale of COVID-19 but also the extent of its harm. On the other hand, the best way to control the epidemics was to increase the public vigilance and physical condition because both of them could reduce the prevalence and case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID-19. In addition, the enhancement of quarantine measures and hospitalization could bring the (slight) increase in the CFR of COVID-19.
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