我们引入了一种新的方法，通过使标记重新捕获方法适应分类数据库的比较来估计可接受的物种多样性。随着时间的推移，分类数据库应该变得更加完整，因此，对其完整性的估计和它所处理的分类单元的已知多样性的误差条将减少。独立的数据库可以相互关联，所以我们用估计的时间过程比较它们来理解相关性的影响。如果后面的估计值明显大于前面的估计值，数据库是正相关的，如果它小得多，它们是负相关的，如果估计大致保持不变，那么相关性已经被平均了。我们通过估计MolluscaBase对于接受的陆生腹足动物名称的完整程度来测试此方法。使用来自独立数据库的随机名字样本，我们确定每个名称是否导致MolluscaBase中接受的名称。2020年8月测试的样本发现，16.7%的测试名称丢失；2021年7月，一个人发现5.3%丢失。MolluscaBase在此期间增长了近3,000种被接受的物种，达到27,050种。估计范围从2021年的28409±365到2020年的29063±771。所有估计都有重叠的95%置信区间，表明数据库之间的相关性不会导致重大问题。超过抽样误差的不确定性增加了475±430种，因此，我们对2021年底公认的陆生腹足动物物种的估计为28,895±630种。这一估计比以前的物种高出4000多个物种。这一估计没有考虑到物种进出同义词的持续流动，新发现,或改变分类方法和概念。陆生腹足动物的物种命名曲线还远未达到渐近线,加上额外的不确定性，这意味着，预测有多少更多的物种可能最终被认可是目前不可行的。我们的方法可用于估计最近软体动物的名称总数（相对于目前接受的名称），已知的软体动物化石的多样性，以及其他门的已知多样性。
We introduce a new method of estimating accepted species diversity by adapting mark-recapture methods to comparisons of taxonomic databases. A taxonomic database should become more complete over time, so the error bar on an estimate of its completeness and the known diversity of the taxon it treats will decrease. Independent databases can be correlated, so we use the time course of estimates comparing them to understand the effect of correlation. If a later estimate is significantly larger than an earlier one, the databases are positively correlated, if it is significantly smaller, they are negatively correlated, and if the estimate remains roughly constant, then the correlations have averaged out. We tested this method by estimating how complete MolluscaBase is for accepted names of terrestrial gastropods. Using random samples of names from an independent database, we determined whether each name led to a name accepted in MolluscaBase. A sample tested in August 2020 found that 16.7% of tested names were missing; one in July 2021 found 5.3% missing. MolluscaBase grew by almost 3,000 accepted species during this period, reaching 27,050 species. The estimates ranged from 28,409 ± 365 in 2021 to 29,063 ± 771 in 2020. All estimates had overlapping 95% confidence intervals, indicating that correlations between the databases did not cause significant problems. Uncertainty beyond sampling error added 475 ± 430 species, so our estimate for accepted terrestrial gastropods species at the end of 2021 is 28,895 ± 630 species. This estimate is more than 4,000 species higher than previous ones. The estimate does not account for ongoing flux of species into and out of synonymy, new discoveries, or changing taxonomic methods and concepts. The species naming curve for terrestrial gastropods is still far from reaching an asymptote, and combined with the additional uncertainties, this means that predicting how many more species might ultimately be recognized is presently not feasible. Our methods can be applied to estimate the total number of names of Recent mollusks (as opposed to names currently accepted), the known diversity of fossil mollusks, and known diversity in other phyla.
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