seasonality

季节性
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:埃塞俄比亚政府制定了多部门霍乱消除计划(NCP),旨在降低霍乱发病率和病死率(CFR)。为了更好地了解和监控这个计划的进展,需要对国家霍乱流行病学进行全面审查.
    方法:从埃塞俄比亚公共卫生研究所和世界卫生组织数据库中提取了过去20年霍乱/急性水样腹泻(AWD)病例的报告数据。描述性统计,进行了Pearsonχ2和逻辑回归分析。
    结果:从2001年1月到2023年11月,共215205例霍乱/AWD病例,2355例死亡,累积CFR为1.10%(95%置信区间[CI],1.092-1.095),平均年发病率为8.9/100000(95%CI,6.5-11.3).在过去的二十年中,发现了两次霍乱流行的主要爆发,2006-2010年的平均发作率(AR)为20.57/100000,2016-2020年为14.83/100000。疫情的再次爆发发生在2021-2023年(平均AR,8.63/100000)。2015-2023年,54.0%(53990/99945)的病例年龄为15-44岁。国家霍乱CFR(3.13%[95%CI:2.1-4.5])是2022年最高的。2015-2023年累积霍乱CFR在各地区不同:BenishangulGumuz(6.07%),Gambela(1.89%),Sidama(1.42%),南方民族,国籍,和人民(1.34%),奥罗米亚(1.10%),和阿姆哈拉(1.09%)。老年人(≥45岁)的霍乱/AWD患者,严重脱水,雨季高峰(6月至8月),门诊患者的死亡风险较高。
    结论:霍乱一直是埃塞俄比亚的一个公共卫生问题,病例死亡人数仍高于全球目标。需要改善病例管理,特别是在门诊患者和老年人群中。疫情准备工作应在典型的雨季之前进行。重大投资对于在医疗保健环境和社区层面推进霍乱监测系统至关重要。应进一步调查每个地区霍乱死亡的潜在因素,以指导适当的干预措施,以在2028年前实现NCP目标。
    BACKGROUND: The Ethiopian government has developed the multisectoral cholera elimination plan (NCP) with an aim of reducing cholera incidence and case fatality rate (CFR). To better understand and monitor the progress of this plan, a comprehensive review of national cholera epidemiology is needed.
    METHODS: Reported data on cholera/acute watery diarrhea (AWD) cases in the past 20 years were extracted from the Ethiopian Public Health Institute and World Health Organization databases. Descriptive statistics, Pearson χ2, and logistic regression analyses were conducted.
    RESULTS: From January 2001 to November 2023, a total of 215 205 cholera/AWD cases, 2355 deaths with a cumulative CFR of 1.10% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.092-1.095), and a mean annual incidence rate of 8.9/100 000 (95% CI, 6.5-11.3) were reported. Two major upsurges of cholera epidemics were found in the last two decades with mean attack rate (AR) of 20.57/100 000 in 2006-2010 and 14.83/100 000 in 2016-2020. Another resurgence of outbreaks occured in 2021-2023 (mean AR, 8.63/100 000). In 2015-2023, 54.0% (53 990/99 945) of cases were aged 15-44 years. National cholera CFR (3.13% [95% CI: 2.1-4.5]) was the highest in 2022. The 2015-2023 cumulative cholera CFR was different across regions: Benishangul Gumuz (6.07%), Gambela (1.89%), Sidama (1.42%), Southern Nation, Nationalities, and Peoples\' (1.34%), Oromia (1.10%), and Amhara (1.09%). Cholera/AWD patients in older adults (≥45 years), severe dehydration, peak rainy season (June-August), and outpatients were associated with higher risk of death.
    CONCLUSIONS: Cholera has been a public health problem in Ethiopia with case fatalities still above the global target. Case management needs to be improved particularly in outpatients and older populations. Outbreak preparedness should be rolled out well in advance of the typical rainy seasons. Significant investments are essential to advance the cholera surveillance system at healthcare setting and community level. Underlying factors of cholera deaths per areas should be further investigated to guide appropriate interventions to meet the NCP target by 2028.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    我们使用欧洲地理蛾(>630种)作为模型组来研究生活史特征如何与幼虫寄主植物的使用相关(即,饮食宽度和寄主植物生长形式)和季节性生命周期(即,伏特主义,越冬阶段和毛虫物候)与全代谢昆虫草食动物的成年体型有关。要做到这一点,我们应用系统发育比较方法来解释食草动物物种之间的共同进化史。我们根据利用的寄主植物属的系统发育结构进一步对幼虫的饮食宽度进行了分类。我们的结果表明,与木本植物相关的物种是,平均而言,比草药饲养者大,尺寸随着饮食宽度的增加而增加。强制性的单伏尔汀物种比多伏尔汀物种大,当它们的幼虫仅在早期季节出现时,它们会达到更大的尺寸。此外,与以卵或毛虫越冬的物种相比,在the期越冬的物种的成年体型明显较小。总之,我们的结果表明,全代谢昆虫草食动物的生态位与成熟时的体型密切相关。
    We used European geometrid moths (>630 species) as a model group to investigate how life history traits linked to larval host plant use (i.e., diet breadth and host-plant growth form) and seasonal life cycle (i.e., voltinism, overwintering stage and caterpillar phenology) are related to adult body size in holometabolous insect herbivores. To do so, we applied phylogenetic comparative methods to account for shared evolutionary history among herbivore species. We further categorized larval diet breadth based on the phylogenetic structure of utilized host plant genera. Our results indicate that species associated with woody plants are, on average, larger than herb feeders and increase in size with increasing diet breadth. Obligatorily univoltine species are larger than multivoltine species, and attain larger sizes when their larvae occur exclusively in the early season. Furthermore, the adult body size is significantly smaller in species that overwinter in the pupal stage compared to those that overwinter as eggs or caterpillars. In summary, our results indicate that the ecological niche of holometabolous insect herbivores is strongly interrelated with body size at maturity.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    类螨是高度宿主特异性的,主要通过风被动分散到新寄主的微观植物寄生虫。这似乎自相矛盾,因为降落在生存所需的适当宿主物种上的可能性似乎很低。在这里,我们研究了在挪威枫树Acerplatanoides上发现的两种叶类植物:Aceriaplatanoidea和Shevtchenkellaserrata。14个月来,我们观察到寄主植物及其繁殖体的螨表型变化和微生境分布。两种螨虫都在树枝上冬眠,或者落在地上的萨马拉,and,在春天,以芽或幼苗为食,分别。与植物种子的这种明显新颖的关联表明,螨虫可以利用宿主扩散机制并定居下一代宿主(垂直传播)。我们的季节和DNA序列数据还表明,S.serrata具有两种不同的形态类型,它们在季节上部分重叠。这项工作可以提供新的见解类螨的传播途径和通过这些螨的植物病原体的传播模式,对更好地控制害虫螨物种有影响。
    Eriophyoid mites are highly host-specific, microscopic phytoparasites that primarily disperse to new hosts passively via wind. This seems paradoxical, as the likelihood of landing on an appropriate host species needed to survive appears low. Here we investigate two eriophyoids found on the Norway maple Acer platanoides: Aceria platanoidea and Shevtchenkella serrata. For 14 months, we observed mite phenotypical changes and micro-habitat distribution on host plants and their propagules. Both mite species hibernate on twigs or samaras fallen on the ground, and, in the spring, feed on buds or seedlings, respectively. This apparently novel association with plant seeds indicates that the mites can exploit the host dispersal mechanism and colonize the next generation of hosts (vertical transmission). Our seasonal and DNA sequence data also indicate that S. serrata has two distinct morphotypes that partially overlap seasonally. This work can provide new insights into the dispersal routes of eriophyoid mites and transmission patterns of plant pathogens vectored by these mites, with implications for better pest mite species control.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    有害藻华(HAB)在西北巴塔哥尼亚峡湾系统中反复出现,并且在过去的几十年中,其频率有所增加。HAB物种的爆发,例如Alexandriumcatenella,麻痹性贝类中毒的病原体,和网状原角菌,一个耶梭毒素的生产者,由于其不利的社会经济后果,引起了相当大的关注。监测项目主要集中在它们的浮游阶段,但是由于这些物种会产生底栖静息囊肿,在某些地区,影响囊肿分布的因素对HAB复发具有潜在的重要意义.尽管如此,缺乏对影响该地区囊肿分布的物理化学条件的全面了解,尤其是与囊肿分布驱动因素的季节性变化有关,由于沉积物中有利于囊肿保存的特征可能会随着季节的变化而变化。在这项研究中,我们分析了沉积物的物理化学性质(温度,pH值,氧化还原电位)并测量了智利南部“热点”地区的底部溶解氧水平,在春季和夏季以及秋季和冬季采样,为了确定这些因素可能作为鞭毛藻囊肿分布的调节剂发挥作用,特别是对于A.catenella和P.reticulum的囊肿。方差分析(PERMANOVA)显示,沉积物氧化还原条件在解释春季-夏季和秋季-冬季(季节性)囊肿组合差异方面具有显着影响。在广义线性模型(GLM)中,沉积物氧化还原电位和pH值与春夏季A.catenella静息囊肿的最高丰度有关,然而,沉积物温度最能解释秋冬季A.catenella的分布。对于网状鱼,只有春夏季沉积物的氧化还原电位和温度解释了囊肿丰度的变化。讨论了环境(物理化学)季节性对这两种物种的静息囊肿动力学的影响。
    Harmful algal blooms (HABs) are recurrent in the NW Patagonia fjords system and their frequency has increased over the last few decades. Outbreaks of HAB species such as Alexandrium catenella, a causal agent of paralytic shellfish poisoning, and Protoceratium reticulatum, a yessotoxins producer, have raised considerable concern due to their adverse socioeconomic consequences. Monitoring programs have mainly focused on their planktonic stages, but since these species produce benthic resting cysts, the factors influencing cyst distributions are increasingly gaining recognition as potentially important to HAB recurrence in some regions. Still, a holistic understanding of the physico-chemical conditions influencing cyst distribution in this region is lacking, especially as it relates to seasonal changes in drivers of cyst distributions, as the characteristics that favor cyst preservation in the sediment may change through the seasons. In this study, we analyzed the physico-chemical properties of the sediment (temperature, pH, redox potential) and measured the bottom dissolved oxygen levels in a \"hotspot\" area of southern Chile, sampling during the spring and summer as well as the fall and winter, to determine the role these factors may play as modulators of dinoflagellate cyst distribution, and specifically for the cysts of A. catenella and P. reticulatum. A permutational analysis of variance (PERMANOVA) showed the significant effect of sediment redox conditions in explaining the differences in the cyst assemblages between spring-summer and fall-winter periods (seasonality). In a generalized linear model (GLM), sediment redox potential and pH were associated with the highest abundances of A. catenella resting cysts in the spring-summer, however it was sediment temperature that most explained the distribution of A. catenella in the fall-winter. For P. reticulatum, only spring-summer sediment redox potential and temperature explained the variation in cyst abundances. The implications of environmental (physico-chemical) seasonality for the resting cysts dynamics of both species are discussed.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    历史温度记录显示,自上世纪中叶以来,北方森林的热生长季节已大大延长,和气候模型预测,这种延长将在未来继续。然而,树木对生长季节长度变化的潜在物候响应仍然相对没有记载,特别是在寒冷环境中生长的常绿北方树种。这里,我们使用最近定义的零增长(ZG)概念来提取和表征12种苦瓜杉树的季节性径向生长动态指标,这些指标经过12年的土壤增温实验,使用高分辨率半径树枝计测量。ZG概念提供了生长季节性的准确测定(发病,停止,持续时间,增长率,和总生长)对于这些生长缓慢的树木,其特征是由于冬季脱水而导致树木直径显着收缩。我们的分析显示,平均而言,生长开始于第152±7天(±1SE,5月31日至6月1日),并在第244±27天(8月31日至9月1日)停止,在12年内,生长季节持续约3个月(93±26天)。生长季节持续时间主要由生长停止决定,而生长开始在几年之间变化不大。总生长的大部分(80%)发生在生长季节的前50天。鉴于增长的动力,早期停止生长(较短的生长季节)导致较高的平均季节性增长率,这意味着更长的生长季节不一定与更大的树木生长有关。土壤变暖导致更早的生长停止,但使平均树木生长率提高了18.1%,年总生长率提高了9.1%,平均而言,与对照树相比。我们的结果表明,温暖树木的较高土壤温度有助于在早期生长季节提供更好的生长条件和更高的生长速率。当土壤温度较低且由于融雪而使土壤含水量升高时。较早达到临界土壤温度,再加上较低的土壤含水量,可能导致温暖的树木更早的生长停止和更短的生长季节。
    Historical temperature records reveal that the boreal forest has been subjected to a significant lengthening of the thermal growing season since the middle of the last century, and climate models predict that this lengthening will continue in the future. Nevertheless, the potential phenological response of trees to changes in growing season length remains relatively undocumented, particularly for evergreen boreal tree species growing in cold environments. Here, we used the recently defined zero growth (ZG) concept to extract and characterize the metrics of seasonal radial growth dynamics for 12 balsam fir trees subjected to a 12-year soil warming experiment using high resolution radius dendrometer measurements. The ZG concept provides an accurate determination of growth seasonality (onset, cessation, duration, growth rates, and total growth) for these slow-growing trees characterized by significant shrinkage in tree diameter due to dehydration in the winter. Our analysis revealed that, on average, growth onset starts at day 152 ± 7 (±1 SE, 31 May-1 June) and ceases at day 244 ± 27 (31 August-1 September), for a growing season duration of about 3 months (93 ± 26 days) over a 12-year period. Growing season duration is mainly determined by growth cessation, while growth onset varies little between years. A large part (80%) of the total growth occurs in the first 50 days of the growing season. Given the dynamics of growth, early growth cessation (shorter growing season) results in a higher average seasonal growth rate, meaning that longer growing seasons are not necessarily associated with greater tree growth. Soil warming induces earlier growth cessation, but increases the mean tree growth rate by 18.1% and the total annual growth by 9.1%, on average, as compared to the control trees. Our results suggest that a higher soil temperature for warmed trees contributes to providing better growth conditions and higher growth rates in the early growing season, when the soil temperature is low and the soil water content is elevated because of snowmelt. Attaining a critical soil temperature earlier, coupled with lower soil water content, may have contributed to the earlier growth cessation and shorter growing season of warmed trees.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    出生季节与通过人体测量学测量的一生中广泛的健康状况相关。这项研究探讨了怀孕期间的出生月份和天气是否会影响男性成年身高,根据西班牙农村人口现代化进程结束前的情况。
    身高数据库(N=16.266)由1908年至1985年之间达到21岁的应征入伍者组成(出生队列1886-1965)。人口样本来自西班牙内陆的一个城市:海林,在卡斯蒂利亚-拉曼查地区,主要是农业区,在1970年代/1980年代之前,资源贫乏,收入低。已经实现了两种不同的方法:使用正弦协变量的调和回归和随机森林模型。
    我们发现,在夏末和秋天出生有利于身高。身材最高的出生月份是九月,身高高于年平均水平0.5厘米,高于2月0.9厘米,平均身高最低的出生月份。此外,我们可以观察到,由于与出生月份变量的替代效应,妊娠期间的降雨和温度几乎没有额外的影响。
    我们的结果表明,季节对身高的影响可能是显着的,并且在生命早期可能受到环境因素的部分影响。我们的发现可能对低收入人口和发展中的农村社会感兴趣。
    Season of birth correlates to a wide range of health conditions throughout life measured by anthropometrics. This study explores whether the month of birth and weather during gestation influence male adult height, based on Spain\'s rural population before the end of the modernization process.
    The database of heights (N = 16.266) is composed of conscripts who reached the age of 21 between 1908 and 1985 (birth cohorts 1886-1965). The population sample has been taken from a municipality in inner Spain: Hellín, in the region of Castilla-La Mancha, mainly an agrarian area, with poor resources and low income until the 1970 s/1980 s. Two different methodologies have been implemented: a harmonic regression using sinusoidal covariables and a random forest model.
    we find that being born at the end of the summer and during the autumn was favorable to height. The birth month with the highest statures is September, with heights 0.5 cm above the annual average and 0.9 cm above February, the birth month with the lowest average height. Furthermore, we can observe that rainfall and temperature during gestation had little additional influence due to a substitution effect with the birth month variable.
    Our results suggest that the seasonal effects on height can be significant and that it can be partially affected by environmental factors during early life. Our findings could be of interest for low-income populations and developing rural societies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Conflict management in PAs (Protected Areas) is becoming increasingly important in the context of the rapid development of nature-based tourism. Literature proposes the Index of Conflict tendency between Tourism development and ecological Protection (ICTP) to analyze the tendency of conflict from a spatial perspective, but this index does not consider the factor of seasonality which is important in tourism. The current study considers seasonality and proposes the CVD (Coverage- Variation- Duration) framework to conduct a spatio-temporal analysis of the ICTP. The applied research based on the case of China\'s V-PAs (a specific category of PAs) reflects that the CVD framework can describe the spatial distribution of the ICTP from a seasonal perspective. The study finds that, among V-PAs in China, 42.16% of the areas with high ICTP of V-PAs have obvious seasonal variations, which shows that PAs conflict management must incorporate the factor of seasonality. The study also shows that 8.98% of V-PAs have large-scale coverage of areas with high ICTP, revealing priorities for conflict management. 3.96% of V-PAs have large-scale coverage of areas with high ICTP showing seasonal changes. Management in these areas should pay attention to seasonal changes to become more effective. The CVD framework proposed in this paper is operable and extendable and can provide analytical tools for PAs conflict management, and promote ecological protection and more sustainable tourism development in PAs.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    BACKGROUND: Despite having a high mortality rate, Asian studies about the characteristics of adult listeriosis are limited. We investigated the incidence of listeriosis per admissions, associated factors, and rate of mortality in listeriosis, compared with non-listeriosis.
    METHODS: We recorded the incidence of listeriosis per 10,000 admissions and conducted a case-control study from January 1, 2010, to December 31, 2019, at Tokyo Medical University Hospital (TMUH) in Japan. Cases were defined as adult with listeriosis that was bacteremia due to L. monocytogenes. Controls, defined as adult with non-listeriosis bacteremia due to other pathogens, were matched by age and clinical department to cases. We analyzed differences in seasonality, including warm season (defined as the period from May to October), medication including steroids, laboratory findings, and mortality. The odds ratio and p value between the cases group and control group were calculated using a chi-square test and Fisher\'s exact test.
    RESULTS: The incidence of listeriosis per 10,000 admissions to TMUH was 0.51. Eleven patients, excluding one neonate, were included in the case group. Twenty-six patients, excluding one patient because of contamination and one patient because of insufficient medical record, were included in the control group. Listeriosis onset was associated with the warm season (90.9% vs. 53.8%; p = 0.033), steroid use (54.5% vs. 19.2%; p = 0.042), and a lower ratio of neutrophils to lymphocytes (9.46 vs. 18.44; p = 0.015). The 30-day mortality rate of listeriosis was similar to non-listeriosis (18.3% vs. 19.2%; p = 0.619).
    CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of listeriosis per admissions in this study was similar to that in other Asian countries. Factors associated with listeriosis were the warm season, steroid use, and a lower ratio of neutrophils to lymphocytes. Additionally, the 30-day mortality rate was similarly high in both the listeriosis and non-listeriosis groups.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    土地利用在确定柔佛河流域(JRB)的水质空间格局中起着重要作用,马来西亚。近年来,这些河流中发生了几次污染,这引起了人们对JRB水资源长期可持续性的担忧。具体来说,这种水资源是两国共享的商品,即,马来西亚柔佛州和新加坡,与马来西亚相邻的邻国。在这项研究之前,在柔佛州,关于土地利用配置对水质影响的研究很少。此外,还不清楚在存在点源的情况下,水质在不同季节性下如何变化。在这项研究中,我们调查了土地利用和污水处理厂(WWTP)点源对JRB水质的影响。进行了两种统计技术-多元线性回归(MLR)和冗余分析(RA)来分析河流水质与土地利用配置之间的关系,以及不同季节下污水处理厂的点源。2019年3月至12月,从JRB内的49个地点收集了水样。结果表明,污水处理厂对水质的影响在旱季较大,而在雨季则较小。特别是,点源与氨氮(NH3-N)高度正相关。另一方面,雨季土地利用影响大于点源影响。住宅和城市土地利用是养分和有机物(化学需氧量)的重要预测因子;林地是重金属的重要汇,但锰的重要来源。
    Land use plays a significant role in determining the spatial patterns of water quality in the Johor River Basin (JRB), Malaysia. In the recent years, there have been several occurrences of pollution in these rivers, which has generated concerns over the long-term sustainability of the water resources in the JRB. Specifically, this water resource is a shared commodity between two states, namely, Johor state of Malaysia and Singapore, a neighbouring country adjacent to Malaysia. Prior to this study, few research on the influence of land use configuration on water quality have been conducted in Johor. In addition, it is also unclear how water quality varies under different seasonality in the presence of point sources. In this study, we investigated the influence of land use and point sources from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) on the water quality in the JRB. Two statistical techniques - Multivariate Linear Regression (MLR) and Redundancy Analysis (RA) were undertaken to analyse the relationships between river water quality and land use configuration, as well as point sources from WWTPs under different seasonality. Water samples were collected from 49 sites within the JRB from March to December in 2019. Results showed that influence from WWTPs on water quality was greater during the dry season and less significant during the wet season. In particular, point source was highly positively correlated with ammoniacal‑nitrogen (NH3-N). On the other hand, land use influence was greater than point source influence during the wet season. Residential and urban land use were important predictors for nutrients and organic matter (chemical oxygen demand); and forest land use were important sinks for heavy metals but a significant source of manganese.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    OBJECTIVE: Otoacariasis is a parasitic otopathy reported in many parts of the world. This study presents the seasonal pattern, risk factors, and case notes on human otoacariasis in two climatically different districts: Anuradhapura and Kandy in the Dry and Wet/Intermediate zone of Sri Lanka, respectively.
    METHODS: Ticks removed from the ear canal of patients were collected. Risk factors of otoacarisis were determined by a case/control follow-up study.
    RESULTS: Nymphal Dermacentor auratus (90.8%) was the main tick species associated otoacariasis. In the Kandy District, infestation was year-round, while in the Anuradhapura District, it was seasonal with a peak in December-February. Children < 10 years were a risk group in both districts. Females were a risk group in the Kandy District. Engagement in outdoor activities was a risk factor in both districts. In addition, the presence of wildlife and domesticated animals were risk factors in the Kandy and Anuradhapura districts, respectively. The treatment protocols in the two hospitals were different. An infant with otoacariasis from the Anuradhapura District developed rickettsia.
    CONCLUSIONS: Although the tick species was the same, seasonality, risk groups, and risk factors in the two districts were different which could be due to the establishment and persistence of tick populations influenced by biotic and abiotic factors.
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