BACKGROUND: Health care-associated infections due to multidrug-resistant organisms (MDROs), such as methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) and Clostridioides difficile (CDI), place a significant burden on our health care infrastructure.
OBJECTIVE: Screening for MDROs is an important mechanism for preventing spread but is resource intensive. The objective of this study was to develop automated tools that can predict colonization or infection risk using electronic health record (EHR) data, provide useful information to aid infection control, and guide empiric antibiotic coverage.
METHODS: We retrospectively developed a machine learning model to detect MRSA colonization and infection in undifferentiated patients at the time of sample collection from hospitalized patients at the University of Virginia Hospital. We used clinical and nonclinical features derived from on-admission and throughout-stay information from the patient\'s EHR data to build the model. In addition, we used a class of features derived from contact networks in EHR data; these network features can capture patients\' contacts with providers and other patients, improving model interpretability and accuracy for predicting the outcome of surveillance tests for MRSA. Finally, we explored heterogeneous models for different patient subpopulations, for example, those admitted to an intensive care unit or emergency department or those with specific testing histories, which perform better.
RESULTS: We found that the penalized logistic regression performs better than other methods, and this model\'s performance measured in terms of its receiver operating characteristics-area under the curve score improves by nearly 11% when we use polynomial (second-degree) transformation of the features. Some significant features in predicting MDRO risk include antibiotic use, surgery, use of devices, dialysis, patient\'s comorbidity conditions, and network features. Among these, network features add the most value and improve the model\'s performance by at least 15%. The penalized logistic regression model with the same transformation of features also performs better than other models for specific patient subpopulations.
CONCLUSIONS: Our study shows that MRSA risk prediction can be conducted quite effectively by machine learning methods using clinical and nonclinical features derived from EHR data. Network features are the most predictive and provide significant improvement over prior methods. Furthermore, heterogeneous prediction models for different patient subpopulations enhance the model\'s performance.

For finite samples with binary outcomes penalized logistic regression such as ridge logistic regression has the potential of achieving smaller mean squared errors (MSE) of coefficients and predictions than maximum likelihood estimation. There is evidence, however, that ridge logistic regression can result in highly variable calibration slopes in small or sparse data situations.
In this paper, we elaborate this issue further by performing a comprehensive simulation study, investigating the performance of ridge logistic regression in terms of coefficients and predictions and comparing it to Firth\'s correction that has been shown to perform well in low-dimensional settings. In addition to tuned ridge regression where the penalty strength is estimated from the data by minimizing some measure of the out-of-sample prediction error or information criterion, we also considered ridge regression with pre-specified degree of shrinkage. We included \'oracle\' models in the simulation study in which the complexity parameter was chosen based on the true event probabilities (prediction oracle) or regression coefficients (explanation oracle) to demonstrate the capability of ridge regression if truth was known.
Performance of ridge regression strongly depends on the choice of complexity parameter. As shown in our simulation and illustrated by a data example, values optimized in small or sparse datasets are negatively correlated with optimal values and suffer from substantial variability which translates into large MSE of coefficients and large variability of calibration slopes. In contrast, in our simulations pre-specifying the degree of shrinkage prior to fitting led to accurate coefficients and predictions even in non-ideal settings such as encountered in the context of rare outcomes or sparse predictors.
Applying tuned ridge regression in small or sparse datasets is problematic as it results in unstable coefficients and predictions. In contrast, determining the degree of shrinkage according to some meaningful prior assumptions about true effects has the potential to reduce bias and stabilize the estimates.

Lipidomics is an emerging field of science that holds the potential to provide a readout of biomarkers for an early detection of a disease. Our objective was to identify an efficient statistical methodology for lipidomics-especially in finding interpretable and predictive biomarkers useful for clinical practice. In two case studies, we address the need for data preprocessing for regression modeling of a binary response. These are based on a normalization step, in order to remove experimental variability, and on a multiple imputation step, to make the full use of the incompletely observed data with potentially informative missingness. Finally, by cross-validation, we compare stepwise variable selection to penalized regression models on stacked multiple imputed data sets and propose the use of a permutation test as a global test of association. Our results show that, depending on the design of the study, these data preprocessing methods modestly improve the precision of classification, and no clear winner among the variable selection methods is found. Lipidomics profiles are found to be highly important predictors in both of the two case studies.