model evaluation

模型评估
  • 文章类型: Systematic Review
    目的:尽管已在临床上用于治疗感染,多粘菌素B(PMB)的治疗范围有限,伴随着其药代动力学的相当大的患者间差异和急性肾损伤的频繁发生,严重阻碍了它的广泛应用。最近对PMB群体药代动力学的研究提供了有价值的见解。本研究旨在回顾相关文献,为临床个体化管理奠定理论基础。
    方法:遵循PRISMA(系统评价和荟萃分析的首选报告项目)指南,从数据库开始到2023年3月,在PubMed和EMBASE数据库系统中搜索了PMB的Pop-PK研究。
    结果:迄今为止,总共进行了22项基于人群的研究,涵盖六个不同国家的756个科目。在这些研究中招募的人群包括感染多重耐药细菌的严重感染者,肾功能不同的患者,那些患有囊性纤维化的人,肾或肺移植受者,接受体外膜氧合(ECMO)或连续肾脏替代疗法(CRRT)的患者,以及肥胖或儿科人群。在这些研究中,七个人采用了一个隔间模型,典型间隙(CL)和容积(Vc)的范围为1.18-2.5L/h和12.09-47.2L,分别。15项研究采用了两室模型,根据中央隔间的间隙(CL)和容积(Vc)的范围,外围隔室的体积(Vp),室间间隙(Q)为1.27-8.65L/h,5.47-38.6L,4.52-174.69L,和1.34-24.3L/h,分别。这些研究中确定的主要协变量包括肌酐清除率和体重,而其他考虑的协变量是CRRT,白蛋白,年龄,和SOFA分数。在19项研究中进行了内部评估,只有一项研究使用独立的外部数据集进行外部验证。
    结论:我们得出的结论是,小样本量,缺乏多中心合作,和患者同质性是导致当前研究结果差异的主要原因.此外,大多数研究仅限于内部评估,这限制了模型知情的精确给药策略的实施。
    OBJECTIVE: Despite being clinically utilized for the treatment of infections, the limited therapeutic range of polymyxin B (PMB), along with considerable interpatient variability in its pharmacokinetics and frequent occurrence of acute kidney injury, has significantly hindered its widespread utilization. Recent research on the population pharmacokinetics of PMB has provided valuable insights. This study aims to review relevant literature to establish a theoretical foundation for individualized clinical management.
    METHODS: Follow PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) guidelines, Pop-PK studies of PMB were searched in PubMed and EMBASE database systems from the inception of the database until March 2023.
    RESULTS: To date, a total of 22 population-based studies have been conducted, encompassing 756 subjects across six different countries. The recruited population in these studies consisted of critically infected individuals with multidrug-resistant bacteria, patients with varying renal functions, those with cystic fibrosis, kidney or lung transplant recipients, patients undergoing extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) or continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT), as well as individuals with obesity or pediatric populations. Among these studies, seven employed a one-compartmental model, with the range of typical clearance (CL) and volume (Vc) being 1.18-2.5L /h and 12.09-47.2 L, respectively. Fifteen studies employed a two-compartmental model, with the ranges of the clearance (CL) and volume of the central compartment (Vc), the volume of the peripheral compartment (Vp), and the intercompartment clearance (Q) were 1.27-8.65 L/h, 5.47-38.6 L, 4.52-174.69 L, and 1.34-24.3 L/h, respectively. Primary covariates identified in these studies included creatinine clearance and body weight, while other covariates considered were CRRT, albumin, age, and SOFA scores. Internal evaluation was conducted in 19 studies, with only one study being externally validated using an independent external dataset.
    CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that small sample sizes, lack of multicentre collaboration, and patient homogeneity are the primary reasons for the discrepancies in the results of the current studies. In addition, most of the studies limited in the internal evaluation, which confined the implementation of model-informed precision dosing strategies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    基于生理的药代动力学(PBPK)建模是当今时代确定儿科药物暴露的范式转变,老年病学,以及难以进行临床试验的慢性病患者。
    这篇综述整理了有关已发表的慢性肾脏病(CKD)PBPK模型的数据,包括药物和系统特定的输入模型参数和模型评估标准。使用从NaN无效日期到NaN无效日期的四个数据库来识别符合纳入/排除标准的相关研究。血浆蛋白(白蛋白/α-1酸性糖蛋白)的变化,胃排空时间,血细胞比容,小肠运输时间,丰富的细胞色素(CYP)450酶,肾小球滤过率,从早期报道的研究中明确阐述了不同药物的物理化学参数。此外,模型评估显示,大多数纳入药物的CKD模型在允许的2倍误差范围内.
    这篇综述将为研究人员在管理不同CKD水平的患者中应用PBPK模型以防止不良副作用并提高药物治疗的有效性提供见解。
    UNASSIGNED: Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modeling is a paradigm shift in this era for determining the exposure of drugs in pediatrics, geriatrics, and patients with chronic diseases where clinical trials are difficult to conduct.
    UNASSIGNED: This review has collated data regarding published PBPK models on chronic kidney disease (CKD), including the drug and system-specific input model parameters and model evaluation criteria. Four databases were used from 13th June 2023 to 10th July 2023 for identifying the relevant studies that met the inclusion/exclusion criteria. Alterations in plasma protein (albumin/alpha-1 acid glycoprotein), gastric emptying time, hematocrit, small intestinal transit time, the abundance of cytochrome (CYP) 450 enzymes, glomerular filtration rate, and physicochemical parameters for different drugs were explicitly elaborated from earlier reported studies. Moreover, model evaluation depicted that models in CKD for most of the included drugs were within the allowed two-fold error range.
    UNASSIGNED: This review will provide insights for researchers on applying PBPK models in managing patients with different levels of CKD to prevent undesirable side effects and increase the effectiveness of drug therapy.
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  • 文章类型: Systematic Review
    背景:临床预测模型通常无法在特定环境中正确评估或更新,例如,来自新标记的信息。需要这些关键步骤,以使模型适合目的并从长远来看保持相关性。我们旨在概述评估的方法论指导(即,验证和影响评估)和更新临床预测模型。
    方法:我们从2000年1月至2022年1月系统地搜索了9个数据库中的英文文章,并针对感兴趣的派生后阶段提出了方法学建议。采用定性分析对选定的70篇指导论文进行了总结。
    结果:验证的关键方面是使用歧视措施评估统计绩效(例如,C统计量)和校准(例如,大范围校准和校准斜率)。为了评估临床决策中的影响或有用性,最近的论文建议使用决策分析措施(例如,净收益)而不是忽视临床后果的简单分类措施(例如,准确度,整体净重新分类指数)。通常推荐的模型更新方法是重新校准(即,截距或基线危险和/或斜率的调整),修订(即,个体预测效果的重新估计),和扩展(即,添加新标记)。更新类型的更新需要额外的方法指导(例如,元模型和动态更新)和基于机器学习的模型。
    结论:为模型评估和基于回归的模型的更常规更新找到了实质性的指导。模型评估的重要发展是引入了用于评估临床有用性的决策分析框架。关于模型更新方法的共识正在形成。
    Clinical prediction models are often not evaluated properly in specific settings or updated, for instance, with information from new markers. These key steps are needed such that models are fit for purpose and remain relevant in the long-term. We aimed to present an overview of methodological guidance for the evaluation (i.e., validation and impact assessment) and updating of clinical prediction models.
    We systematically searched nine databases from January 2000 to January 2022 for articles in English with methodological recommendations for the post-derivation stages of interest. Qualitative analysis was used to summarize the 70 selected guidance papers.
    Key aspects for validation are the assessment of statistical performance using measures for discrimination (e.g., C-statistic) and calibration (e.g., calibration-in-the-large and calibration slope). For assessing impact or usefulness in clinical decision-making, recent papers advise using decision-analytic measures (e.g., the Net Benefit) over simplistic classification measures that ignore clinical consequences (e.g., accuracy, overall Net Reclassification Index). Commonly recommended methods for model updating are recalibration (i.e., adjustment of intercept or baseline hazard and/or slope), revision (i.e., re-estimation of individual predictor effects), and extension (i.e., addition of new markers). Additional methodological guidance is needed for newer types of updating (e.g., meta-model and dynamic updating) and machine learning-based models.
    Substantial guidance was found for model evaluation and more conventional updating of regression-based models. An important development in model evaluation is the introduction of a decision-analytic framework for assessing clinical usefulness. Consensus is emerging on methods for model updating.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在整个工业部门,包括药品,化学品,个人护理产品,食品添加剂及其相关监管机构,有必要开发强大和可靠的方法来减少或取代动物试验。通常认识到,没有单一的替代方法能够提供基于更复杂的毒理学终点的测定的一对一替代。因此,需要来自技术组合的信息。对时间和浓度依赖性机制有更深入的了解,潜在的化学物质和生物系统之间的相互作用,以及可能导致根尖效应的事件序列,将有助于推进减少和取代动物实验的科学。在硅造型中,体外试验,高通量筛选,器官芯片技术,组学和数学生物学,可以提供补充信息,以开发生物体对化学应激源的潜在反应的完整图片。不良结果途径(AOPs)和系统生物学框架使来自不同来源的相关信息能够逻辑整合。虽然个人研究人员不需要成为所有学科的专家,对科学的其他领域有一个基本的了解是有用的,以及知识如何与其他学科相结合。这篇综述的目的是为那些不熟悉预测硅片工具的人提供,对基础理论有基本的理解。当前应用,软件,接受的障碍,讨论了新的发展和综合方法的使用,为每个主题张贴额外的资源。
    Across the spectrum of industrial sectors, including pharmaceuticals, chemicals, personal care products, food additives and their associated regulatory agencies, there is a need to develop robust and reliable methods to reduce or replace animal testing. It is generally recognised that no single alternative method will be able to provide a one-to-one replacement for assays based on more complex toxicological endpoints. Hence, information from a combination of techniques is required. A greater understanding of the time and concentration-dependent mechanisms, underlying the interactions between chemicals and biological systems, and the sequence of events that can lead to apical effects, will help to move forward the science of reducing and replacing animal experiments. In silico modelling, in vitro assays, high-throughput screening, organ-on-a-chip technology, omics and mathematical biology, can provide complementary information to develop a complete picture of the potential response of an organism to a chemical stressor. Adverse outcome pathways (AOPs) and systems biology frameworks enable relevant information from diverse sources to be logically integrated. While individual researchers do not need to be experts across all disciplines, it is useful to have a fundamental understanding of what other areas of science have to offer, and how knowledge can be integrated with other disciplines. The purpose of this review is to provide those who are unfamiliar with predictive in silico tools, with a fundamental understanding of the underlying theory. Current applications, software, barriers to acceptance, new developments and the use of integrated approaches are all discussed, with additional resources being signposted for each of the topics.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    Nitrogen (N) is one of the most important nutrients for plant growth. However, improper management of N fertilization in agriculture has led to a large amount of nitrate leaching, which is especially the case in fruit production systems. Studies have shown that high levels of nitrate in drinking water can cause harm to the human body. Excessive nitrate in rivers leads to eutrophication and damage to the ecological environment of the water. This study reviewed the measures and methods for reducing nitrate leaching in orchards. Some approaches for reducing nitrate leaching in orchards were evaluated, such as using grass cover, applying controlled-release N fertilizer, adding nitrification inhibitors, etc. These methods play important roles in reducing nitrate leaching in orchards, but more importantly, integrated measures are required to achieve agricultural sustainability and environmental protection goals.
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