influenza

流感
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    成人先天性心脏病(ACHD)患者的发病率和心脏入院率都很高。与没有ACHD的人相比,他们的高剂量流感疫苗接种结果是未知的。
    这项研究的目的是比较自我鉴定的ACHD与非ACHD患者的全因死亡率或心肺住院率,这些患者在流感疫苗中接受高剂量或低剂量流感疫苗接种以有效阻止心胸事件和失代偿性心力衰竭试验。
    我们前瞻性地将ACHD患者纳入INVESTED(有效阻止心胸事件和失代偿性心力衰竭的流感疫苗)试验。主要终点是全因死亡或因心血管或肺部原因住院。
    在272名ACHD患者中,132人被随机分配接受高剂量三价和140标准剂量四价流感疫苗。与非ACHD队列(n=4,988)相比,ACHD患者更有可能更年轻,女人,吸烟者,有心房颤动,并有心力衰竭的合格事件。ACHD组和非ACHD组的主要结局为每100人年49.8例事件和42.8例事件(调整后的HR:1.17;95%CI:0.95-1.45;P=0.144),分别。ACHD状态和随机治疗效果之间的交互作用对于主要结果并不显著(P=0.858)。两组疫苗相关不良事件相似。
    与非ACHD队列相比,自我确认为ACHD的患者具有相似的主要结局,即全因死亡或因心血管或肺部原因住院。在自我鉴定为ACHD的患者中,大剂量流感疫苗接种与标准剂量流感疫苗接种的主要结果相似。
    UNASSIGNED: Adult congenital heart disease (ACHD) patients have significant morbidity and rise in cardiac admissions. Their outcome with high-dose influenza vaccination is unknown in comparison to those without ACHD.
    UNASSIGNED: The purpose of this study was to compare all-cause mortality or cardiopulmonary hospitalizations in self-identified ACHD versus non-ACHD patients receiving high- or low-dose influenza vaccination within the INfluenza Vaccine to Effectively Stop cardioThoracic Events and Decompensated heart failure trial.
    UNASSIGNED: We prospectively included ACHD patients in the INVESTED (INfluenza Vaccine to Effectively Stop cardioThoracic Events and Decompensated heart failure) trial. The primary endpoint was all-cause death or hospitalization for cardiovascular or pulmonary causes.
    UNASSIGNED: Of the 272 ACHD patients, 132 were randomly assigned to receive high-dose trivalent and 140 to standard-dose quadrivalent influenza vaccine. Compared to the non-ACHD cohort (n = 4,988), ACHD patients were more likely to be younger, women, smokers, have atrial fibrillation, and have a qualifying event of heart failure. The primary outcome was 49.8 events versus 42.8 events per 100 person-years (adjusted HR: 1.17; 95% CI: 0.95-1.45; P = 0.144) in the ACHD group and non-ACHD group, respectively. The interaction between ACHD status and randomized treatment effect was not significant for the primary outcome (P = 0.858). Vaccine-related adverse events were similar in both groups.
    UNASSIGNED: Patients who self-identify as being ACHD had similar primary outcome of all-cause death or hospitalization for cardiovascular or pulmonary causes compared to non-ACHD cohort. High-dose influenza vaccination was similar to standard-dose influenza vaccination on the primary outcome in patients who self-identify as ACHD.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:季节性流感仍然是全球公共卫生问题。基于信使RNA(mRNA)的四价季节性流感疫苗,mRNA-1010,在3部分中进行了研究,人类第一,1/2期临床试验。
    方法:在此分层的第1-3部分中,观察者盲研究,≥18岁的成年人被随机分配接受单剂量(6.25µg~200µg)mRNA-1010或安慰剂(第1部分)或活性比较剂(Afflua;第2~3部分).主要研究目标是安全性评估,反应原性,和mRNA-1010的体液免疫原性,安慰剂(第1部分),或有源比较器(第2-3部分)。探索性终点包括评估细胞免疫原性(部分1)和针对疫苗异源(A/H3N2)菌株的抗原宽度(部分1-2)。
    结果:在所有研究部分中,与安慰剂或阿氟尿症相比,mRNA-1010的征求不良反应报告更频繁,并且大多数严重程度为1级或2级。未报告疫苗相关严重不良事件或死亡。在第1-2部分中,单剂量的mRNA-1010(25µg至200µg)引起强劲的第29天血凝抑制(HAI)滴度,持续了6个月。在第3部分中,较低剂量的mRNA-1010(6.25µg至25µg)引起第29天的HAI滴度高于或与甲型流感毒株的Afluria相当。与阿夫鲁里亚相比,mRNA-1010(50μg)引发更广泛的A/H3N2抗体应答(第2部分)。mRNA-1010在第8天比安慰剂诱导更大的T细胞应答,其在第29天持续或更强(第1部分)。
    结论:数据支持mRNA-1010作为季节性流感疫苗的持续发展。
    NCT04956575(https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04956575)。
    BACKGROUND: Seasonal influenza remains a global public health concern. A messenger RNA (mRNA)-based quadrivalent seasonal influenza vaccine, mRNA-1010, was investigated in a 3-part, first-in-human, phase 1/2 clinical trial.
    METHODS: In Parts 1-3 of this stratified, observer-blind study, adults aged ≥18 years old were randomly assigned to receive a single dose (6.25 µg to 200 µg) of mRNA-1010 or placebo (Part 1) or an active comparator (Afluria; Parts 2-3). Primary study objectives were assessment of safety, reactogenicity, and humoral immunogenicity of mRNA-1010, placebo (Part 1), or active comparator (Parts 2-3). Exploratory endpoints included assessment of cellular immunogenicity (Part 1) and antigenic breadth against vaccine heterologous (A/H3N2) strains (Parts 1-2).
    RESULTS: In all study parts, solicited adverse reactions were reported more frequently for mRNA-1010 than placebo or Afluria and most were grade 1 or 2 in severity. No vaccine-related serious adverse events or deaths were reported. In Parts 1-2, a single dose of mRNA-1010 (25 µg to 200 µg) elicited robust Day 29 hemagglutination inhibition (HAI) titers that persisted through 6 months. In Part 3, lower doses of mRNA-1010 (6.25 µg to 25 µg) elicited Day 29 HAI titers that were higher or comparable to Afluria for influenza A strains. Compared with Afluria, mRNA-1010 (50 µg) elicited broader A/H3N2 antibody responses (Part 2). mRNA-1010 induced greater T-cell responses than placebo at Day 8 that were sustained or stronger at Day 29 (Part 1).
    CONCLUSIONS: Data support the continued development of mRNA-1010 as a seasonal influenza vaccine.
    UNASSIGNED: NCT04956575 (https://clinicaltrials.gov/study/NCT04956575).
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:肺炎是最常见的传染病之一,主要由病毒或细菌引起。为了应对不同但部分重叠的细菌或病毒,诱导先天和适应性免疫反应,可以使用特定生物标志物的测定来定量。其中,C反应蛋白(CRP)已被确立为先天性免疫功能的标志物,而新蝶呤,它主要是在用干扰素-γ刺激时产生的,反映细胞免疫激活。
    目的:我们研究了微生物学证实的病毒性或细菌性肺炎患者的炎症标志物,并研究了CRP的潜力,新蝶呤,和CRP/新蝶呤比值来区分病毒和细菌的发病机理。此外,我们检查了,患有不同类型肺炎的患者出现神经精神症状的频率。
    方法:2019年诊断为冠状病毒病(COVID-19)的194例患者(n=63),细菌性肺炎(n=58),流感感染(n=10),流感和细菌重复感染(n=9),和COVID-19细菌重叠感染患者(n=54)被纳入我们的初步研究。入院后不久确定了临床和实验室参数。
    结果:我们发现,细菌性肺炎患者的CRP/Neopterin比率明显较高(中位数:0.34),而COVID-19感染住院患者的CRP/Neopterin比率明显较低(中位数:0.03;p<0.001)。无论是男性还是女性,CRP/新蝶呤比值能够区分病毒和细菌病原体,而且还能够检测到初始病毒性肺炎受试者的细菌超级感染(BSI)(p<0.001)。BSI患者的CRP/新蝶呤比值(中位数0.08)明显低于仅有细菌感染的患者(中位数0.34;p<0.001)。有趣的是,与肺炎患者相比,COVID-19患者的身体功能下降(如ECOG评分所示),疲劳(84.1%)和神经系统症状(54.8%)的频率更高,由于其他潜在的病原体。在病毒性和细菌性肺炎期间报告疲劳的患者的CRP浓度低于没有它的患者。
    结论:CRP/新蝶呤比值可用于区分病毒和细菌的发病机制。肺炎中神经精神症状的发生似乎取决于引起感染的病原体的种类。入院时较低的CRP浓度似乎与急性病毒和细菌感染期间的疲劳有关。
    BACKGROUND: Pneumonia is one of the most common infectious diseases, mostly caused by viruses or bacteria. In response to bacteria or viruses which are different but which also are partly overlapping, innate and adaptive immune responses are induced, which can be quantified using the determination of specific biomarkers. Among these, C-reactive protein (CRP) has been established as a marker of innate immune function, whereas Neopterin, which is mainly produced upon stimulation with interferon-gamma, reflects cellular immune activation.
    OBJECTIVE: We investigated inflammation markers in patients with microbiologically confirmed viral or bacterial pneumonia, and studied the potential of CRP, Neopterin, and the CRP/Neopterin ratio to distinguish between viral and bacterial pathogenesis. Furthermore, we examined, how often neuropsychiatric symptoms occur in patients suffering from different kinds of pneumonia.
    METHODS: A total of 194 patients diagnosed with either coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) (n = 63), bacterial pneumonia (n = 58), Influenza infection (n = 10), Influenza and a bacterial superinfection (n = 9), and COVID-19 patients with a bacterial superinfection (n = 54) were included in our pilot study. Clinical as well as laboratory parameters were determined shortly after admission.
    RESULTS: We found significantly higher CRP/Neopterin ratios in patients with bacterial pneumonia (median: 0.34) and lower CRP/Neopterin ratios in patients hospitalized with COVID-19 infection (median: 0.03; p < 0.001). Both in men and in women, the CRP/Neopterin ratio was able to distinguish between viral and bacterial pathogens, but also was able to detect bacterial super-infection (BSI) in subjects with initial viral pneumonia (p < 0.001). Patients with BSI presented with significantly lower CRP/Neopterin ratios (median 0.08) than patients with bacterial infection only (median 0.34; p < 0.001). Interestingly, COVID-19 patients had a decreased physical functioning (as reflected in the ECOG score) and a higher frequency of fatigue (84.1%) and neurological symptoms (54.8%) than patients with pneumonia, due to other underlying pathogens. Patients that reported fatigue during viral and bacterial pneumonia presented with lower CRP concentrations than patients without it.
    CONCLUSIONS: The CRP/Neopterin ratio is useful to differentiate between viral and bacterial pathogenesis. The occurrence of neuropsychiatric symptoms in pneumonia appears to depend on the kind of pathogen causing the infection. Lower CRP concentrations at admission appear to be related to fatigue during acute viral and bacterial infection.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:二价COVID-19疫苗接种与缺血性卒中之间的潜在关联仍不确定,尽管到目前为止进行了几项研究。
    目的:本研究旨在评估2022-2023年期间二价COVID-19疫苗接种后缺血性卒中的风险。
    方法:在一个大型医疗保健系统中,对年龄在2022年9月1日至2023年3月31日期间发生缺血性卒中的12岁及以上成员进行了一项自我对照病例系列研究。使用国际疾病分类法确定缺血性中风,急诊科和住院设置的第十次修订代码。暴露是辉瑞生物技术公司或Moderna二价COVID-19疫苗接种。疫苗接种后,风险间隔预设为1-21天和1-42天;所有非风险间隔的人时间作为对照间隔。使用条件泊松回归在风险区间和对照区间比较缺血性卒中的发生率。我们按年龄进行了总体和亚组分析,SARS-CoV-2感染史,和流感疫苗的共同管理。当检测到高风险时,我们对缺血性卒中进行了图表回顾,并分析了图表证实的缺血性卒中的风险.
    结果:4933例缺血性卒中事件,我们发现,在21天的风险区间内,2种疫苗和不同亚组的风险均未增加.然而,在年龄小于65岁的个体中,在同一天同时服用Pfizer-BioNTech二价疫苗和流感疫苗的42天风险间隔内,缺血性卒中的风险升高;相对发病率(RI)为2.13(95%CI1.01~4.46).在那些也有SARS-CoV-2感染史的人中,RI为3.94(95%CI1.10-14.16)。经过图表审查,RIs为2.34(95%CI0.97-5.65)和4.27(95%CI0.97-18.85),分别。在65岁以下接受过Moderna二价疫苗并有SARS-CoV-2感染史的人群中,图表审查前RI为2.62(95%CI1.13-6.03),图表审查后RI为2.24(95%CI0.78-6.47).按性别进行的分层分析未显示二价疫苗接种后缺血性中风的风险显着增加。
    结论:虽然在65岁以下同时服用辉瑞-BioNTech二价疫苗和流感疫苗的个体中,以及在65岁以下接受Moderna二价疫苗并有SARS-CoV-2感染史的个体中,经图表证实的缺血性卒中风险的点估计值在1-42天的风险间隔内升高。风险无统计学意义.在1-42天的分析中,二价疫苗接种与缺血性卒中之间的潜在关联值得在65岁以下的合并接种流感疫苗和先前感染SARS-CoV-2的个体中进行进一步调查。此外,双价COVID-19疫苗接种后缺血性卒中风险的研究结果强调了在2023-2024年期间评估单价COVID-19疫苗安全性的必要性.
    BACKGROUND: The potential association between bivalent COVID-19 vaccination and ischemic stroke remains uncertain, despite several studies conducted thus far.
    OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to evaluate the risk of ischemic stroke following bivalent COVID-19 vaccination during the 2022-2023 season.
    METHODS: A self-controlled case series study was conducted among members aged 12 years and older who experienced ischemic stroke between September 1, 2022, and March 31, 2023, in a large health care system. Ischemic strokes were identified using International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision codes in emergency departments and inpatient settings. Exposures were Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna bivalent COVID-19 vaccination. Risk intervals were prespecified as 1-21 days and 1-42 days after bivalent vaccination; all non-risk-interval person-time served as the control interval. The incidence of ischemic stroke was compared in the risk interval and control interval using conditional Poisson regression. We conducted overall and subgroup analyses by age, history of SARS-CoV-2 infection, and coadministration of influenza vaccine. When an elevated risk was detected, we performed a chart review of ischemic strokes and analyzed the risk of chart-confirmed ischemic stroke.
    RESULTS: With 4933 ischemic stroke events, we found no increased risk within the 21-day risk interval for the 2 vaccines and by subgroups. However, risk of ischemic stroke was elevated within the 42-day risk interval among individuals aged younger than 65 years with coadministration of Pfizer-BioNTech bivalent and influenza vaccines on the same day; the relative incidence (RI) was 2.13 (95% CI 1.01-4.46). Among those who also had a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the RI was 3.94 (95% CI 1.10-14.16). After chart review, the RIs were 2.34 (95% CI 0.97-5.65) and 4.27 (95% CI 0.97-18.85), respectively. Among individuals aged younger than 65 years who received Moderna bivalent vaccine and had a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the RI was 2.62 (95% CI 1.13-6.03) before chart review and 2.24 (95% CI 0.78-6.47) after chart review. Stratified analyses by sex did not show a significantly increased risk of ischemic stroke after bivalent vaccination.
    CONCLUSIONS: While the point estimate for the risk of chart-confirmed ischemic stroke was elevated in a risk interval of 1-42 days among individuals younger than 65 years with coadministration of Pfizer-BioNTech bivalent and influenza vaccines on the same day and among individuals younger than 65 years who received Moderna bivalent vaccine and had a history of SARS-CoV-2 infection, the risk was not statistically significant. The potential association between bivalent vaccination and ischemic stroke in the 1-42-day analysis warrants further investigation among individuals younger than 65 years with influenza vaccine coadministration and prior SARS-CoV-2 infection. Furthermore, the findings on ischemic stroke risk after bivalent COVID-19 vaccination underscore the need to evaluate monovalent COVID-19 vaccine safety during the 2023-2024 season.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    这项研究调查了接触多环芳烃(PAHs)之间的潜在关系,特别是单羟基化代谢物(OH-PAHs),在尿液中,以及居住在捷克共和国两个地点的2岁儿童的呼吸道疾病流行率-捷克塞克·布德·乔维(控制地点)和历史上受到污染的Most矿区。尽管目前这两个城市的空气质量和生活方式相似,我们的研究旨在揭示潜在的长期健康影响,基于以前的数据,表明大多数人口的独特模式。总共分析了248份尿液样品中11种OH-PAHs的存在。采用乙酸乙酯液-液萃取,并通过分散固相萃取进行净化,仪器分析采用超高效液相色谱-串联质谱联用技术。呼吸系统疾病的发病率是通过儿科医生进行的问卷调查来评估的。大多数2岁儿童的尿液样品中OH-PAHs的浓度升高了,而OF-PAHs的浓度则升高了。呼吸系统疾病的发病率显示,大多数儿童的OH-PAHs水平具有统计学意义,以及更高的流感发病率。这种关联强调了环境PAH暴露对儿童呼吸健康的影响。这表明尿OH-PAH水平升高表明受影响人群患呼吸道疾病的风险增加。需要进一步的研究来澄清可能的长期健康影响,并为健全的公共卫生战略做出贡献。
    This study investigates the potential relationship between exposure to polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), specifically monohydroxylated metabolites (OH-PAHs), in urine, and the prevalence of respiratory diseases in 2-year-old children residing in two locations within the Czech Republic - České Budějovice (control location) and the historically contaminated mining district of Most. Despite current air quality and lifestyle similarities between the two cities, our research aims to uncover potential long-term health effects, building upon previous data indicating distinctive patterns in the Most population. A total of 248 urine samples were analysed for the presence of 11 OH-PAHs. Employing liquid-liquid extraction with ethyl acetate and clean-up through dispersive solid-phase extraction, instrumental analysis was conducted using ultra-high performance liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry. The incidence of respiratory diseases was assessed through questionnaires administered by paediatricians. The concentrations of OH-PAHs were elevated in urine samples from 2-year-olds in Most compared to those from České Budějovice. The incidence of respiratory diseases showed statistically significant higher levels of OH-PAHs in children from Most, together with a higher incidence of influenza. This association underlines the impact of environmental PAH exposure on children\'s respiratory health. It suggests that elevated urinary OH-PAH levels indicate an increased risk of developing respiratory diseases in the affected population. Further studies are needed to clarify the possible long-term health effects and to contribute to sound public health strategies.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:与流感病毒感染相关的炎症可导致多种神经系统表现。脑炎就是其中之一,主要伴有癫痫发作,根据流行病和以前的医疗条件不同。
    方法:2018年11月至2023年4月期间,所有在图卢兹儿童医院儿科神经科住院的呼吸道样本中出现神经系统症状且流感病毒RNA检测阳性的儿童,进行了回顾性分析。
    结果:在我们中心诊断为流感的1,277名儿童中,131(10.3%)因神经系统特征住院。2020-2021年流感检测阳性为零,与COVID-19大流行有关。在131名患者中,71.6%为5岁以下。其中大多数(80.9%)感染了甲型流感病毒。73.3%的患者以癫痫发作为主。在29%的病例中观察到可能或确诊的脑炎,包括一例急性坏死性脑病.很少有儿童(6.1%)出现急性肌炎。27名患者(20.6%)有明显的神经系统疾病的个人病史。大多数患者(88.5%)表现出快速有利的结果,以他们的神经症状在前2天内消失为标志。1.5%的病例使用抗癫痫药物,并适应16.8%,以发热性癫痫持续状态和脑电图异常为主。
    结论:神经系统特征常与儿童流感感染相关;大多数是短暂的。对长期神经发育结果的影响需要澄清,因为我们的随访有限,特别是在有神经系统疾病的儿童中。
    BACKGROUND: Inflammation related to influenza virus infection can lead to multiple neurological presentations. Encephalitis is one of them, mostly accompanied by seizures, with different profiles depending on the epidemics and previous medical conditions.
    METHODS: All children presenting neurological symptoms and positive for influenza virus RNA detection in a respiratory sample between November 2018 and April 2023, hospitalized in the Department of Paediatric Neurology of Toulouse Children\'s Hospital, were retrospectively analysed.
    RESULTS: Among the 1,277 children diagnosed with influenza in our centre, 131 (10.3 %) were hospitalized for neurological features. The year 2020-2021 was marked by zero incidence of positive influenza tests, associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Among the 131 patients included, 71.6 % were under 5 years old. Most of them (80.9 %) were infected by influenza A virus. The first neurological symptoms were mainly seizures in 73.3 % of patients. Possible or confirmed encephalitis was observed in 29 % of cases, including one acute necrotizing encephalopathy. Few children (6.1 %) presented with acute myositis. Twenty-seven patients (20.6 %) had a personal history of significant previous neurological disorders. Most patients (88.5 %) displayed a rapid favourable outcome, marked by the disappearance of their neurological symptoms within the first 2 days. Anti-epileptic drugs were introduced in 1.5 % of cases, and adapted in 16.8 %, mainly in patients with febrile status epilepticus and an abnormal EEG.
    CONCLUSIONS: Neurological features were frequently associated with influenza infection in children; most were transient. Effects on long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes need to be clarified as our follow-up was limited, especially in children with pre-existing neurological conditions.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    短期流感暴露后预防(PEP)在成人中显示出很高的疗效,但是缺乏对儿童的研究。这项随机开放标签试点试验旨在验证住院儿童口服奥司他韦3天与7天预防的非劣效性。流感接触者被随机分配到3天或7天组,不良事件的相对风险(AE),并比较了药物和AE管理的累积成本。意向治疗(ITT)分析包括59名儿童(3天和7天组中n=28和n=31,分别)。3天和7天组的疗效分别为100%(95%CI87.7-100%)和93.6%(95%CI78.6-99.2%);差异无统计学意义。包括56例患者(分别为27例和29例)的符合方案(PP)分析显示100%(95%CI87.2-100%)和93.1%(95%CI77.2-99.2%)疗效,分别,没有统计学意义。差异在预定义的非劣效性范围内,疗效差异Δ=6.45个百分点(p.p.),单侧95%CI(-2.8,-1.31,p=0.86;ITT)和Δ=6.9p.p.(单侧95%CI-2.83,-1.27,p=0.85;PP)。不良事件没有显著差异,而7天组的预防和不良事件管理的累积成本较高(中位数为10.5欧元vs.4.5欧元,p<0.01)。这项初步研究显示了3天PEP与7天PEP的非劣效性,这与较低的成本有关。试用注册号:NCT04297462,2020年3月5日,重新注册。
    Short influenza postexposure prophylaxis (PEP) showed high efficacy in adults, but studies in children are lacking. This randomized open-label pilot trial aimed to verify noninferiority of a 3- versus 7-day prophylaxis with oral oseltamivir in hospitalized children. Influenza contacts were randomized to the 3- or 7-day group and efficacy, relative risk of adverse events (AEs), and the cumulative costs of drugs and AEs management were compared. The intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis included 59 children (n = 28 and n = 31 in the 3- and 7-day group, respectively). The efficacy was 100% (95% CI 87.7-100%) versus 93.6% (95% CI 78.6-99.2%) in the 3- and 7-day group; the differences were statistically insignificant. A per-protocol (PP) analysis including 56 patients (n = 27 and n = 29, respectively) showed 100% (95% CI 87.2-100%) and 93.1% (95% CI 77.2-99.2%) efficacy, respectively, without statistical significance. Differences were within the predefined noninferiority margin with an efficacy difference Δ = 6.45 percentage points (p.p.) with 1-sided 95% CI (- 2.8, - 1.31, p = 0.86; ITT) and Δ = 6.9 p.p. (1-sided 95% CI - 2.83, - 1.27, p = 0.85; PP). Adverse events did not differ significantly, while the cumulative costs of the prophylaxis and AEs management were higher in the 7-day group (median 10.5 euro vs. 4.5 euro, p < 0.01). This pilot study showed the noninferiority of the 3-day versus 7-day PEP, which was associated with lower costs.Trial registration number: NCT04297462, 5th March 2020, restrospectively registered.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    这项研究的目的是估算2012年至2021年中国流感病毒感染的超额死亡负担,并同时分析其相关疾病表现。
    关于流感的实验室监测数据,相关人口统计,和死亡率记录,包括中国的死因数据,从2012年到2021年,都纳入了综合分析。负二项回归模型用于计算与流感相关的超额死亡率,考虑到年份等因素,子类型,和死因。
    没有证据表明恶性肿瘤与任何亚型流感之间存在相关性,尽管检查了流感对八种疾病死亡率的影响。在2012年至2021年期间,共分离出327,520份流感病毒检测呈阳性的样品,在2012-2013年和2019-2020年期间观察到的阳性率显着下降。在研究期间,中国平均每年与流感相关的超额死亡人数为201721.78,平均每年超额死亡率为每10万人14.53。在检查的死亡原因中,呼吸和循环系统疾病(R&C)所占比例最高(58.50%)。归因于呼吸和循环系统疾病的死亡表现出明显的时间模式,而其他原因导致的死亡在一年中分散。
    理论上,这些疾病类型对流感相关死亡人数过多的贡献可以作为早期预警和有针对性的流感监测的基础。此外,有可能更精确地评估预防和控制措施的成本以及流行病对公共卫生的影响。
    UNASSIGNED: The aim of this study is to estimate the excess mortality burden of influenza virus infection in China from 2012 to 2021, with a concurrent analysis of its associated disease manifestations.
    UNASSIGNED: Laboratory surveillance data on influenza, relevant population demographics, and mortality records, including cause of death data in China, spanning the years 2012 to 2021, were incorporated into a comprehensive analysis. A negative binomial regression model was utilized to calculate the excess mortality rate associated with influenza, taking into consideration factors such as year, subtype, and cause of death.
    UNASSIGNED: There was no evidence to indicate a correlation between malignant neoplasms and any subtype of influenza, despite the examination of the effect of influenza on the mortality burden of eight diseases. A total of 327,520 samples testing positive for influenza virus were isolated between 2012 and 2021, with a significant decrease in the positivity rate observed during the periods of 2012-2013 and 2019-2020. China experienced an average annual influenza-associated excess deaths of 201721.78 and an average annual excess mortality rate of 14.53 per 100,000 people during the research period. Among the causes of mortality that were examined, respiratory and circulatory diseases (R&C) accounted for the most significant proportion (58.50%). Fatalities attributed to respiratory and circulatory diseases exhibited discernible temporal patterns, whereas deaths attributable to other causes were dispersed over the course of the year.
    UNASSIGNED: Theoretically, the contribution of these disease types to excess influenza-related fatalities can serve as a foundation for early warning and targeted influenza surveillance. Additionally, it is possible to assess the costs of prevention and control measures and the public health repercussions of epidemics with greater precision.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:准确预测疫苗接种行为可以为卫生保健专业人员制定有针对性的干预措施提供见解。
    目的:本研究的目的是建立中国儿童流感疫苗接种行为的预测模型。
    方法:我们从无锡的一项前瞻性观察研究中获得了数据,中国东部。预测结果是个体水平的疫苗摄取,协变量包括儿童和父母的社会人口统计学,父母的疫苗犹豫,对临床方便的看法,对诊所服务的满意度,并愿意接种疫苗。贝叶斯网络,逻辑回归,最小绝对收缩和选择算子(LASSO)回归,支持向量机(SVM),朴素贝叶斯(NB),随机森林(RF),用决策树分类器构建预测模型。各种性能指标,包括接受者工作特性曲线下面积(AUC),用于评估不同模型的预测性能。接收器工作特性曲线和校准图用于评估模型性能。
    结果:总共2383名参与者被纳入研究;这些儿童中83.2%(n=1982)<5岁,6.6%(n=158)以前接种过流感疫苗。超过一半(1356/2383,56.9%)的父母表示愿意为孩子接种流感疫苗。在2383名儿童中,26.3%(n=627)在2020-2021年季节接受了流感疫苗接种。在训练集中,RF模型在所有指标中显示出最佳性能。在验证集中,logistic回归模型和NB模型的AUC值最高;SVM模型的准确率最高;NB模型的召回率最高;logistic回归模型的准确率最高。F1得分,和科恩κ值。LASSO和逻辑回归模型得到了很好的校准。
    结论:开发的预测模型可用于量化中国儿童季节性流感疫苗接种的吸收。逐步逻辑回归模型可能更适合预测目的。
    BACKGROUND: Predicting vaccination behaviors accurately could provide insights for health care professionals to develop targeted interventions.
    OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to develop predictive models for influenza vaccination behavior among children in China.
    METHODS: We obtained data from a prospective observational study in Wuxi, eastern China. The predicted outcome was individual-level vaccine uptake and covariates included sociodemographics of the child and parent, parental vaccine hesitancy, perceptions of convenience to the clinic, satisfaction with clinic services, and willingness to vaccinate. Bayesian networks, logistic regression, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression, support vector machine (SVM), naive Bayes (NB), random forest (RF), and decision tree classifiers were used to construct prediction models. Various performance metrics, including area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the different models. Receiver operating characteristic curves and calibration plots were used to assess model performance.
    RESULTS: A total of 2383 participants were included in the study; 83.2% of these children (n=1982) were <5 years old and 6.6% (n=158) had previously received an influenza vaccine. More than half (1356/2383, 56.9%) the parents indicated a willingness to vaccinate their child against influenza. Among the 2383 children, 26.3% (n=627) received influenza vaccination during the 2020-2021 season. Within the training set, the RF model showed the best performance across all metrics. In the validation set, the logistic regression model and NB model had the highest AUC values; the SVM model had the highest precision; the NB model had the highest recall; and the logistic regression model had the highest accuracy, F1 score, and Cohen κ value. The LASSO and logistic regression models were well-calibrated.
    CONCLUSIONS: The developed prediction model can be used to quantify the uptake of seasonal influenza vaccination for children in China. The stepwise logistic regression model may be better suited for prediction purposes.
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