Treatment-Resistant Depression (TRD) poses a substantial health and economic challenge, persisting as a major concern despite decades of extensive research into novel treatment modalities. The considerable heterogeneity in TRD\'s clinical manifestations and neurobiological bases has complicated efforts toward effective interventions. Recognizing the need for precise biomarkers to guide treatment choices in TRD, herein we introduce the SelecTool Project. This initiative focuses on developing (WorkPlane 1/WP1) and conducting preliminary validation (WorkPlane 2/WP2) of a computational tool (SelecTool) that integrates clinical data, neurophysiological (EEG) and peripheral (blood sample) biomarkers through a machine-learning framework designed to optimize TRD treatment protocols. The SelecTool project aims to enhance clinical decision-making by enabling the selection of personalized interventions. It leverages multi-modal data analysis to navigate treatment choices towards two validated therapeutic options for TRD: esketamine nasal spray (ESK-NS) and accelerated repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (arTMS). In WP1, 100 subjects with TRD will be randomized to receive either ESK-NS or arTMS, with comprehensive evaluations encompassing neurophysiological (EEG), clinical (psychometric scales), and peripheral (blood samples) assessments both at baseline (T0) and one month post-treatment initiation (T1). WP2 will utilize the data collected in WP1 to train the SelecTool algorithm, followed by its application in a second, out-of-sample cohort of 20 TRD subjects, assigning treatments based on the tool\'s recommendations. Ultimately, this research seeks to revolutionize the treatment of TRD by employing advanced machine learning strategies and thorough data analysis, aimed at unraveling the complex neurobiological landscape of depression. This effort is expected to provide pivotal insights that will promote the development of more effective and individually tailored treatment strategies, thus addressing a significant void in current TRD management and potentially reducing its profound societal and economic burdens.

UNASSIGNED: Treatment resistant depression (TRD) affects 10-30% of patients with major depressive disorder. In 4-week trials, esketamine nasal spray (NS) was efficacious vs. placebo when both were initiated in addition to a new selective serotonin or serotonin norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor. However, comparison with an extended range of real-world treatments (RWT) is lacking.
UNASSIGNED: ICEBERG was an adjusted indirect treatment comparison using propensity score-based inverse probability weighting, performed on 6-month response and remission data from patients receiving esketamine NS plus oral antidepressant from the SUSTAIN-2 (NCT02497287; clinicaltrials.gov) study, compared with patients receiving other RWT from the European Observational TRD Cohort (EOTC; NCT03373253; clinicaltrials.gov) study. SUSTAIN-2 was a long-term open-label study of esketamine NS, while the EOTC was conducted at a time when esketamine NS was not available as RWT. Threshold and sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess how robust the primary analyses were.
UNASSIGNED: Patients receiving esketamine NS had a higher probability of 6-month response (49.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 45.6-53.9]) and remission (33.6% [95% CI 29.7-37.6]) vs. patients receiving RWT (26.4% [95% CI 21.5-31.4] and 18.2% [95% CI 13.9-22.5], respectively), according to rescaled average treatment effect among treated estimates. Resulting adjusted odds ratios (OR) and relative risk (RR) favoured esketamine NS over RWT for 6-month response (OR 2.756 [95% CI 2.034-3.733], p < 0.0001; RR 1.882 [95% CI 1.534-2.310], p < 0.0001) and remission (OR 2.276 [95% CI 1.621-3.196], p < 0.0001; RR 1.847 [95% CI 1.418-2.406], p < 0.0001). Threshold analyses suggested that differences between the two studies were robust, and results were consistent across extensive sensitivity analyses.
UNASSIGNED: ICEBERG supports that, at 6 months, esketamine NS has a substantial and significant benefit over RWT for patients with TRD. While results may be affected by unobserved confounding factors, threshold analyses suggested these were unlikely to impact the study conclusions.To view an animated summary of this publication, please click on the Supplementary video.

UNASSIGNED: The efficacy of esketamine nasal spray (NS) as a rapid-acting agent for treatment resistant depression (TRD) was demonstrated in comparisons with placebo, when both were given in addition to a newly initiated selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor (SSRI)/serotonin norepinephrine reuptake inhibitor (SNRI). How esketamine NS compares with commonly used real-world (RW) polypharmacy treatment strategies is not known.
UNASSIGNED: ICEBERG was an adjusted indirect treatment comparison that analysed data from SUSTAIN-2 (NCT02497287; clinicaltrials.gov), a long-term, open-label study of esketamine NS plus SSRI/SNRI, and the European Observational TRD Cohort (EOTC; NCT03373253; clinicaltrials.gov), an observational study of routine clinical practice. Data were compared between patients receiving esketamine NS (SUSTAIN-2) and those from the EOTC treated with polypharmacy treatment strategies, either combination or augmentation. Analyses were adjusted for potential confounders, using rescaled average treatment effect among treated estimates. Threshold analyses were conducted to assess potential impact of unmeasured confounders on the robustness of analyses where esketamine NS was found to be significantly superior. Sensitivity analyses were used to understand the impact of analysis method selection and data handling.
UNASSIGNED: Esketamine NS treatment resulted in a higher probability of 6-month response (49.7% [95% confidence interval (CI) 45.6-53.9]) and remission (33.6% [95% CI 29.7-37.6]) versus RW polypharmacy (26.8% [95% CI 21.0-32.5] and 19.4%, [95% CI 14.2-24.6], respectively). Relative risk calculations showed esketamine NS was 1.859 (95% CI 1.474-2.345; p < 0.0001) times as likely to result in response and 1.735 (1.297-2.322; p = 0.0002) times as likely to result in remission versus RW polypharmacy at 6 months. Threshold and extensive sensitivity analyses supported that analyses of esketamine NS superiority were robust.
UNASSIGNED: ICEBERG supports esketamine NS being superior to current RW individualized polypharmacy strategies, including augmentation, with benefits extending beyond acute use, to improved chance of 6-month response and remission. While unobserved confounding factors may certainly impact results of an indirect comparison, threshold analysis supported a low likelihood of this affecting the conclusions.To view an animated summary of this publication, please click on the Supplementary video.