全球范围内的气候变化影响流域的水文和河流的水动力,水温(WT),和生物的栖息地条件。本文提出了一个定量评估方法框架，用于分析GCC对冷水鱼类栖息地的影响。这个框架整合了GCC，缩小，水文,水动力，水温,和生境模型，并应用于黄河源区（SRYR），哪里有裸猴eckloni(G.eckloni)资源减少问题。在这项研究中,我们开发了一种高精度，松散整合的水文，水动力，SRYR中SWAT-MIKE21的WT耦合模型。建立了覆盖SRYR的最佳纬度和经度范围（6°×6°）以进行缩小，并获得了三种GCC模型下的未来气象数据。主要结果表明产卵的放电，和少年G.eckloni表明从低到高的辐射以及从近期到未来的辐射趋势增加。WT在4月和6月（5月）增加（减少），最大增加/减少为3.1°C（SSP370在2100年）/1.4°C（SSP585在2050年）。加权可用面积(WUA)在5月份表现出严重波动的趋势，六月，十月,其他月份等于基准年。总WUA(TWUA)呈现增长趋势,产卵期和幼年期的最大增加量为134.46%和270.89%，分别。最终,SRYR中GCC引起的汇合放电和WT的增加有利于产卵和幼年的G.eckloni。研究结果对G.eckloni制定长期的适应性保护修复措施具有指导意义,并提供预测气候变化对高海拔寒冷地区河流生态系统中其他生物影响的计划。
Climate change at the global scale affects the watershed\'s hydrology and the river\'s hydrodynamic, water temperature (WT), and habitat conditions of organisms. This article proposes a quantitative assessment methodology framework for analyzing the impact of GCC on the cold-water fish habitat. This framework integrated GCC, downscaling, hydrological, hydrodynamic, water temperature, and habitat models and was applied to the source region of the Yellow River (SRYR), where there are Gymnocypris eckloni (G. eckloni) resource reduction problems. In this
study, we developed a high-precision, loosely integrated hydrological, hydrodynamic, WT coupling model for SWAT-MIKE21 in the SRYR. The optimal latitude and longitude range (6° × 6°) covering the SRYR was established for downscaling, and future meteorological data under three GCC models was obtained. The main results present the discharge of spawning, and juvenile G. eckloni indicates an increasing trend from the radiation forcing low to high and from the near now to the future term. The WT increased (decreased) in April and June (May), with a maximum increase/decrease of 3.1°C (SSP370 in 2100)/1.4°C (SSP585 in 2050). The weighted useable area (WUA) demonstrated a trend of severe fluctuations in May, June, and October, and other months are equal to the base year. Total WUA (TWUA) displayed an increasing trend, with the maximum increase in spawning and juvenile period being 134.46% and 270.89%, respectively. Ultimately, the rise in confluence discharge and WT caused by GCC in the SRYR benefits spawning and juvenile G. eckloni. The results have guiding significance for the development of long-term and adaptive protection and restoration measures for G. eckloni, and provide a plan for predicting the impact of climate change on other organisms in river ecosystems in high-altitude cold regions.
