了解安徽省中老年人认知障碍(CI)的患病情况,建立ACI风险预测模型。从2022年5月到6月,多阶段,采用分层整群抽样方法,在安徽省抽取3200名45岁以上中老年人进行问卷调查,中文版的简易精神状态检查(MMSE)用于评估认知功能。SPSS25.0用于单变量和多变量分析,并使用R软件建立和验证列线图。共纳入有效问卷3059份,其中384人来自被诊断为CI的参与者,患病率为12.6%。多因素Logistic分析显示,女性性别,高龄,家族史,等。,与CI的发生密切相关。模型组和验证组的曲线下面积(AUC)值分别为0.845(95%CI:0.822-0.868)和0.868(95%CI:0.835-0.902),分别,说明模型的预测能力较好。Hosmer-Lemeshow测试表明该模型具有良好的拟合优度,决策曲线评估列线图在阈值内具有很高的效益,具有一定的临床重要性。安徽省中老年人的CI患病率为12.6%。女性性别,老年人年龄,家族史,受教育程度低,目前的吸烟状况,睡眠障碍,高血压,中风,糖尿病被证明是CI的危险因素,而运动被证明是保护因素。
To understand the prevalence of cognitive impairment (CI) in middle-aged and elderly individuals in Anhui Province and to develop a CI risk prediction model. From May to June 2022, a multistage, stratified cluster-sampling method was used to select 3200 middle-aged and elderly people over 45 years old in Anhui Province for a questionnaire survey, and the Chinese version of the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) was used to assess cognitive function. SPSS 25.0 was used for univariate and multivariate analyses, and R software was used to establish and validate the nomogram. A total of 3059 valid questionnaires were included, of which 384 were from participants who were diagnosed with CI, and the prevalence rate was 12.6%. Multivariate logistic analysis showed that female sex, advanced age, family history, etc., were closely related to the occurrence of CI. The area under curve (AUC) values in the modeling and validation groups were 0.845 (95% CI: 0.822-0.868) and 0.868 (95% CI: 0.835-0.902), respectively, indicating that the predictive ability of the model was good. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test suggested that the model had good goodness-of-fit, and the decision-curve evaluation nomogram had a high benefit within the threshold, which had a certain clinical importance. The prevalence rate of CI among middle-aged and elderly individuals in Anhui Province was 12.6%. Female sex, elderly age, family history, low educational status, current smoking status, sleep disorders, hypertension, stroke, and diabetes were shown to be risk factors for CI, while exercise was shown to be a protective factor.