Social Vulnerability

社会脆弱性
  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:社会和环境因素的差异导致致命伤害率的差异。这项研究评估了美国各县的社会脆弱性与凶杀和自杀率之间的关系。
    方法:2016-2020年县级年龄调整后的凶杀和自杀率与疾病控制和预防中心2020年社会脆弱性指数(SVI)的数据相关联。一个识别社会脆弱社区的数据集。我们进行了负二项回归分析,以检查SVI与凶杀率和自杀率之间的关联,总体和人口普查地区/部门。我们在双变量chroopleth图中绘制了SVI以及凶杀和自杀率的县级数据。
    结果:总体SVI与美国各县的凶杀率有关。虽然没有发现整体SVI和自杀率的关联,社会经济地位与种族和族裔少数民族地位领域相关联。SVI的地理分布以及凶杀和自杀率在空间上有所不同;特别是,南部的县的社会脆弱性和凶杀率最高。
    结论:我们的研究结果表明,县级社会脆弱性与凶杀率有关,但对自杀率可能更为微妙。修改后的伤害SVI应包括其他社会和结构决定因素,并排除不适用于伤害的变量。
    结论:这项研究将SVI与凶杀和自杀数据相结合,使研究人员能够检查相关的社会和环境因素。修改SVI以包括相关预测因素,可以通过优先考虑社会脆弱性高地区的努力来改善伤害预防战略。
    BACKGROUND: Differences in social and environmental factors contribute to disparities in fatal injury rates. This study assessed the relationship between social vulnerability and homicide and suicide rates across United States counties.
    METHODS: County-level age-adjusted homicide and suicide rates for 2016-2020 were linked with data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention\'s 2020 Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), a dataset identifying socially vulnerable communities. We conducted negative binomial regressions to examine the association between SVI and homicide and suicide rates, overall and by Census region/division. We mapped county-level data for SVI and homicide and suicide rates in bivariate choropleth maps.
    RESULTS: Overall SVI was associated with homicide rates across U.S. counties. While no association was found for overall SVI and suicide rates, Socioeconomic Status and Racial & Ethnic Minority Status domains were associated. The geographic distribution of SVI and homicide and suicide rates varied spatially; notably, counties in the South had the greatest levels of social vulnerability and greatest homicide rates.
    CONCLUSIONS: Our findings demonstrate county-level social vulnerability is associated with homicide rates but may be more nuanced for suicide rates. A modified SVI for injury should include additional social and structural determinants and exclude variables not applicable to injuries.
    CONCLUSIONS: This study combines the SVI with homicide and suicide data, enabling researchers to examine related social and environmental factors. Modifying the SVI to include relevant predictors could improve injury prevention strategies by prioritizing efforts in areas with high social vulnerability.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    目的:健康和社会因素在地域文化地理上表现出很大的异质性,也影响口腔健康。这项研究的目的是确认县级一般健康之间的关联,行为,社会因素,和口腔健康指标,并进一步分析美国(US)主导区域文化中口腔健康指标的分布模式。
    方法:我们从2023年PLACES数据库中使用县级计算了生活方式健康指数(LHI),年龄调整后的健康数据,并将其与(A)2020年社会脆弱性指数(SVI)数据库合并,(b)来自国家实验室的美国国家模式的主导区域文化,(c)2023年PLACES数据库中的牙医就诊和牙齿丢失数据,(d)从县健康排名数据库获取牙科数据。
    结果:LHI(和子分数)之间的相关系数,SVI(和子分数),和牙科变量显示出很强的相关性。ANOVA事后测试结果显示,LHI的牙科就诊和牙齿丢失存在显着差异,SVI和牙医。牙科就诊和牙齿丢失的患病率在区域文化中显示出明显的异质性。
    结论:口腔健康与生活方式健康因素密切相关,社会脆弱性,进入牙科,文化规范和信仰体系。在美国,口腔健康指标在主要区域文化地理上的分布存在显著的异质性。口腔健康沟通和政策解决方案侧重于健康相关行为(例如,烟草,饮食),特定疾病的考虑因素(例如,糖尿病),和社会环境(例如,贫穷,住房)应适应地区文化,而不是单一的美国文化,以改善牙齿护理和口腔健康结果。
    OBJECTIVE: Health and social factors show large heterogeneity across regional cultural geographies and influence oral health as well. The purpose of this study is to confirm associations between county-level general health, behaviors, social factors, and oral health indicators and to further analyze the patterns of distribution of oral health indicators across dominant regional cultures in the United States (US) as defined by the American Nations model.
    METHODS: We calculated a Lifestyle Health Index (LHI) from the 2023 PLACES database using county-level, age-adjusted health data and merged it with (a) 2020 Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) database, (b) dominant regional cultures from Nationhood Lab\'s American Nations model, (c) dentist visits and teeth lost data from the 2023 PLACES database, and (d) access to dentistry data from the County Health Rankings database.
    RESULTS: Correlation coefficients between the LHI (and sub scores), SVI (and sub scores), and dental variables showed strong associations. ANOVA post-hoc test results revealed significant differences for dental visits and teeth lost for LHI, SVI and access to dentists. Prevalence of dental visits and teeth lost showed clear heterogeneity across regional cultures.
    CONCLUSIONS: Oral health is strongly linked to lifestyle health factors, social vulnerability, access to dentistry, and cultural norms and belief systems. Within the US, significant heterogeneity exists in the distribution of oral health indicators across dominant regional cultural geographies. Oral health communications and policy solutions focused on health-related behaviors (e.g., tobacco, diet), disease-specific considerations (e.g., diabetes), and the social environment (e.g., poverty, housing) should be tailored to regional cultures rather than a single US-based culture to improve dental care and oral health outcomes.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    热浪构成严重威胁,预计随着气候变化和社会人口结构的变化,热浪会加剧。全面了解社区的热浪暴露对于制定有效的战略和缓解计划至关重要。这项研究探讨了密西西比州历史上脆弱社区热浪的时空特征,美国。我们推导出多个热浪指标,包括频率,持续时间,和基于城市特定白天的温度数据的大小,夜间,和昼夜综合条件。我们的分析描绘了所有县的热浪上升趋势,在长时间的昼夜事件中观察到最极端的变化,缺乏通宵的缓解。我们将物理热浪危害与社会经济脆弱性指数相结合,以开发综合城市热浪风险指数。综合指标将密西西比州西北部的县确定为热易发地区,表现出迫切需要在这些地区优先考虑热弹性和适应性策略。这些社区中复杂的城市热浪和脆弱性风险凸显了实施保护弱势群体的公平政策的环境正义。尽管这项研究集中在密西西比州,我们的框架是可扩展的,可以用于全球城市地区。这项研究为制定及时的热浪准备和缓解措施提供了坚实的基础,以避免随着极端气候变化而加剧的与热有关的悲剧。
    Heatwaves pose a serious threat and are projected to amplify with changing climate and social demographics. A comprehensive understanding of heatwave exposure to the communities is imperative for the development of effective strategies and mitigation plans. This study explores spatiotemporal characterization of heatwaves across the historically vulnerable communities in Mississippi, United States. We derive multiple heatwave metrics including frequency, duration, and magnitude based on temperature data for urban-specific daytime, nighttime, and day-night combined conditions. Our analysis depicts a rising heatwave trend across all counties, with the most extreme shifts observed in prolonged day-night events lacking overnight relief. We integrate physical heatwave hazards with a socioeconomic vulnerability index to develop an integrated urban heatwave risk index. Integrated metric identifies the counties in northwest Mississippi as heat-prone areas, exhibiting an urgent need to prioritize heat resilience and adaptive strategies in these regions. The compounding urban heatwave and vulnerability risks in these communities highlights an environmental justice imperative to implement equitable policies that protect disadvantaged populations. Although this study is focused on Mississippi, our framework is scalable and can be employed to urban regions globally. This study provides a solid foundation for developing timely heatwave preparedness and mitigation to avert preventable heat-related tragedies as extremes intensify with climate change.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    在二十一世纪的头二十年,我们分析了城市土地覆盖的扩展,城市热岛(UHI),和休斯顿都市区(HMA)的城市污染岛(UPI)使用从Landsat和来自NASA的中分辨率成像光谱仪的土地/气溶胶产品得出的土地覆盖分类。我们的方法涉及直接利用和融合与原位观察以进行全面表征。我们还研究了HMA内部的社会脆弱性在研究期间如何变化,以及UHI的协同作用是否,UPI,社会脆弱性加剧了环境不平等。我们发现,HMA内的城市土地覆盖增加了1,345.09km2,并伴随着白天(夜间)UHI的171.92(73.93)%的扩展。虽然UPI经历了颗粒污染的整体减少,与周围环境相比,变化的幅度较小。Further,UPI显示,由于车辆流量增加,颗粒污染局部增强。我们的分析发现,在研究期间,HMA城市地区的社会脆弱性增加。总的来说,我们发现21世纪头二十年的城市增长导致了UHI的协同作用,UPI,和社会脆弱性,导致HMA内部环境不平等的增加。
    During the first two decades of the twenty-first century, we analyze the expansion of urban land cover, urban heat island (UHI), and urban pollution island (UPI) in the Houston Metropolitan Area (HMA) using land cover classifications derived from Landsat and land/aerosol products from NASA\'s Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer. Our approach involves both direct utilization and fusion with in situ observations for a comprehensive characterization. We also examined how social vulnerability within the HMA changed during the study period and whether the synergy of UHI, UPI, and social vulnerability enhances environmental inequalities. We found that urban land cover within the HMA increased by 1,345.09 km2 and is accompanied by a 171.92 (73.93) % expansion of the daytime (nighttime) UHI. While the UPI experienced an overall reduction in particulate pollution, the magnitude of change is smaller compared to the surroundings. Further, the UPI showed localized enhancement in particulate pollution caused by increases in vehicular traffic. Our analysis found that the social vulnerability of the HMA urban regions increased during the study period. Overall, we found that the urban growth during the first two decades of the twenty-first century resulted in a synergy of UHI, UPI, and social vulnerability, causing an increase in environmental inequalities within the HMA.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:我们研究了患有长期COVID和五种社会脆弱性(费用,employment,食物不足,住房,和保险)。
    方法:来自人口普查局家庭脉搏调查(HPS)的数据,详细说明了COVID发病率,持续时间,以及6月1日至11月14日之间的症状,2022年包含广泛性焦虑症(GAD-2)和患者健康问卷(PHQ-2)问卷的版本。焦虑之间的关联,抑郁症,使用广义二项逻辑回归评估了经历长期COVID的不同种族和族裔受访者之间的五种社会脆弱性。结构方程模型测试了社会脆弱性是否介导了种族/民族与焦虑/抑郁之间的途径。
    结果:黑人,亚洲人/其他人,与白人相比,患有长期COVID的西班牙裔更有可能报告焦虑和抑郁以及各种社会脆弱性。黑人的焦虑与费用困难显着相关[赔率比(OR)=1.743,95%置信区间(CI)=1.739,1.747],就业(OR=1.519,95%CI=1.516,1.523),和住房(OR=1.192,95%CI=1.19,1.194)。西班牙裔焦虑与食物不足显著相关(OR=1.048,95%CI=1.044,1.052)。黑人的抑郁与费用(OR=1.201,95%CI=1.198,1.205)和就业困难(OR=1.129,95%CI=1.127,1.132)显着相关。中介分析表明,社会脆弱性的数量部分介导了种族与焦虑之间的关联。
    结论:这项回顾性研究利用了次要的,观察,来自HPS的自我报告数据。因此,结果在收集它们的上下文之外可能无法推广。
    结论:为人口健康量身定制的计划的开发应解决焦虑和抑郁与种族和族裔群体之间社会困难的不同关联。
    BACKGROUND: We examined the association between symptoms of anxiety and depression among individuals with long COVID and five social vulnerabilities (expenses, employment, food insufficiency, housing, and insurance).
    METHODS: Data from the Census Bureau\'s Household Pulse Survey (HPS) detailing COVID incidence, duration, and symptoms between June 1st and November 14th, 2022 contained versions of the Generalized Anxiety Disorder (GAD-2) and the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-2) questionnaires. Associations between anxiety, depression, and the five social vulnerabilities among respondents from different racial and ethnic groups experiencing long COVID were evaluated using generalized binomial logistic regression. Structural equation models tested whether social vulnerabilities mediated the pathway between race/ethnicity and anxiety/depression.
    RESULTS: Blacks, Asians/others, and Hispanics with long COVID were significantly more likely to report anxiety and depression and various social vulnerabilities than Whites. Anxiety among Blacks was significantly associated with difficulty with expenses [Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.743, 95 % Confidence Interval (CI) = 1.739, 1.747], employment (OR = 1.519, 95 % CI = 1.516, 1.523), and housing (OR = 1.192, 95 % CI = 1.19, 1.194). Anxiety among Hispanics was significantly associated with food insufficiency (OR = 1.048, 95 % CI = 1.044, 1.052). Depression among Blacks was significantly associated with trouble with expenses (OR = 1.201, 95 % CI = 1.198, 1.205) and employment (OR = 1.129, 95 % CI = 1.127, 1.132). Mediation analysis showed that the number of social vulnerabilities partially mediated the association between race and anxiety.
    CONCLUSIONS: This retrospective study utilized secondary, observational, self-reported data from the HPS. Therefore, results may not be generalizable outside of the context in which they were collected.
    CONCLUSIONS: The development of tailored programs for population health should address the differential associations of anxiety and depression with social difficulties among racial and ethnic groups.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    黑人患者患有更多的围产期心肌病(PPCM)和更严重的疾病。为了更好地理解这些差异,我们检查了PPCM患者按种族的地理分布,并评估了种族与社会脆弱性之间的关联.我们假设患有PPCM的黑人患者比白人患者更有可能生活在社会脆弱的社区中。
    一项由美国国立卫生研究院定义的PPCM患者的回顾性队列研究,国家之心,肺,血液研究所于2000年1月至2017年11月在一个中心进行。确定了每位患者的美国人口普查区,使用疾病控制和预防中心的社会脆弱性指数(SVI)评估社会脆弱性。较高的SVI值代表一个更脆弱的社区。通过自我报告的种族比较了SVI和选择的子组件。
    在90名PPCM患者中(47名白人,43黑色),诊断时射血分数组间相似,尽管Black患者在产后6~12个月时射血分数更可能≤40%.黑人种族与生活在社会脆弱性较高的地区有关;黑人个体的平均SVI明显高于白人个体(.56对.33,P=.0003)。黑人患者生活在更多人生活在贫困中的地区,更高的失业率,和更多的单亲家庭。
    患有PPCM的Black患者更有可能患有持续性左心室功能障碍,并且生活在社会脆弱性更大的地区。需要实现健康的公平社会决定因素的策略,以改善患有PPCM的黑人患者的健康结果。
    UNASSIGNED: Black patients have disproportionately more cases of peripartum cardiomyopathy (PPCM) and more severe disease. To better understand these disparities, we examined the geographic distribution of patients with PPCM by race and evaluated associations between race and social vulnerability. We hypothesized that Black patients with PPCM are more likely than White patients to live in socially vulnerable communities.
    UNASSIGNED: A retrospective cohort study of patients with PPCM defined by the National Institutes of Health, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute was conducted at a single center from January 2000 to November 2017. The US census tract for each patient was identified, and social vulnerability was assessed using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Social Vulnerability Index (SVI). Higher SVI values represent a more vulnerable community. SVI and select subcomponents were compared by self-reported race.
    UNASSIGNED: Among 90 patients with PPCM (47 White, 43 Black), the ejection fraction at diagnosis was similar between groups, although Black patients were more likely to have an ejection fraction of ≤40% at 6 to 12 months postpartum. Black race was associated with living in areas of greater social vulnerability; mean SVI was significantly higher among Black individuals than among White individuals (.56 versus .33, P=.0003). Black patients lived in areas with more people living in poverty, higher unemployment, and more single-parent households.
    UNASSIGNED: Black patients with PPCM were more likely to have persistent left ventricular dysfunction and live in areas of greater social vulnerability. Strategies to achieve equitable social determinants of health are needed to improve health outcomes in Black patients with PPCM.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:巴西弓形虫病患病率很高。然而,在不同环境中弓形虫的血清阳性率比较方面存在差距,特别是农村和城市地区的怀孕居民。
    方法:比较城市孕妇弓形虫IgG和IgM的患病率,城郊,和巴西东南部一个城市的农村聚居区。有关年龄和居住地区的信息是从2015年1月到2022年12月编制的。采用Logistic回归分析评估年龄和居住地为危险因素。
    结果:共记录了1614次检查,显示54.0%的血清阳性,农村居民区最高(61.1%),其次是城市周边地区(55.9%),市区最低(49.2%)。
    结论:农村地区怀孕居民中IgG和IgM的高患病率,城郊,和城市地区强调了所获得的结果对于加强旨在预防弓形虫病的孕产妇健康计划的重要性,不管他们的住所。
    BACKGROUND: Brazil has a high prevalence of toxoplasmosis. However, there is a gap in comparing seroprevalence for Toxoplasma gondii across different environments, particularly among pregnant residents of rural and urban areas.
    METHODS: The prevalence of IgG and IgM for T. gondii was compared among pregnant residents of the urban, peri-urban, and rural settlement areas in a municipality in southeastern Brazil. Information regarding age and area of residence was compiled from January 2015 to December 2022. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess the age and area of residence as risk factors.
    RESULTS: A total of 1614 examinations were recorded, revealing 54.0% seropositivity, which was highest in the rural settlement (61.1%), followed by the peri-urban area (55.9%), and lowest in the urban area (49.2%).
    CONCLUSIONS: The high prevalence of IgG and presence of IgM in pregnant residents of rural, peri-urban, and urban areas highlights the significance of the results obtained for strengthening maternal health programs aimed at preventing toxoplasmosis, regardless of their residence.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    这项研究分析了巴西COVID-19危机期间社会弱势老年人对心理健康的自我感知。从2021年2月到2023年10月在所有州首府进行,其中包括366名参与者,他们生活在各种条件下,如营地。街道情况,贫民窟,和社区。平均年龄为66.7岁,大多数是男性(59.0%),黑色或棕色种族/颜色(62.3%),收入低于最低工资(36.6%)。调查结果显示,老年人在街头情况下,经历大流行导致的睡眠障碍等心理表现,倾向于更消极地评估他们的心理健康。相比之下,没有这种表现的白人种族/肤色的老年男性,那些练习身体活动或放松等策略的人,不太可能认为他们的心理健康很差。寻址住房,实施卫生战略,识别样本和区域复杂性是老年人在街头情况下的关键干预措施。
    This study analyzes the self-perception of mental health of socially vulnerable elderly people during the COVID-19 crisis in Brazil. Conducted across all state capitals from February 2021 to October 2023, it included 366 participants living in various conditions such as camps, street situations, slums, and communities. The average age was 66.7 years, with a majority being male (59.0%), of Black or Brown race/color (62.3%), and earning below one minimum wage (36.6%). Findings revealed that older adults in street situations, experiencing psychological manifestations like sleep disturbances due to the pandemic, tended to assess their mental health more negatively. In contrast, older men of white race/color without such manifestations, and those practicing strategies like physical activity or relaxation, were less likely to perceive their mental health as poor. Addressing housing, implementing health strategies, and recognizing sample and regional complexities are crucial interventions for older adults in street situations.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    背景:有越来越多的文献表明地理社会脆弱性,它试图衡量一个社区抵御不可预见的灾难的弹性,可能与外伤后的负面结果有关。特别是对于机动车碰撞(MVCs),不知道患者家庭环境的资源如何与发生事故的环境的资源进行交互。
    方法:我们将密歇根州公开的崩溃数据与密歇根州创伤质量改善数据集合并在一起。计算每个邮政编码的社会脆弱性指数(SVI)得分,然后在MVC的位置(崩溃SVI)和患者的家庭住址(家庭SVI)之间进行交叉引用。SVI分为五分位数,数字越高,表明脆弱性越大。使用最小绝对收缩和选择算子进行特征选择和正则化的调整后的逻辑回归模型依次使用患者,车辆,和环境变量来识别Home-SVI和Crash-SVI之间的关联,死亡率和损伤严重度评分(ISS)大于15(ISS15)。
    结果:在2020年1月至2022年12月之间,共确定了14,706名患者。大多数MVC(占所有患者的75.3%)发生在SVI的第二至第四位。在所有情况下,崩溃-SVI最常发生在与患者的家庭-SVI相同的五分之一中。平均碰撞速度限制与SVI的增加呈显著负相关。在调整后的逻辑回归中,经患者因素校正后,Home-SVI第5个五分之一的死亡率与第1个五分之一的死亡率相比显著增加;但在加入车辆或环境变量后,这失去了显著性.相比之下,在所有逻辑回归模型中,Crash-SVI最高五分位数的ISS15几率均降低.
    结论:地理社会脆弱性标记与较低的MVC相关损伤严重程度相关,也许部分原因是这些地区的速度限制较低。
    BACKGROUND: There is a growing body of literature that shows geographic social vulnerability, which seeks to measure the resiliency of a community to withstand unforeseen disasters, may be associated with negative outcomes after traumatic injury. For motor vehicle collisions (MVCs) specifically, it is unknown how the resources of a patient\'s home environment may interact with resources of the environment where the crash occurred.
    METHODS: We merged publicly available crash data from the state of Michigan with the Michigan Trauma Quality Improvement dataset. A social vulnerability index (SVI) score was calculated for each ZIP code and was then cross-referenced between the location of the MVC (Crash-SVI) and the patient\'s home address (Home-SVI). SVI was divided into quintiles, with higher numbers indicating greater vulnerability. Adjusted logistic regression models using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator for feature selection and regularization were performed sequentially using patient, vehicular, and environmental variables to identify associations between Home-SVI and Crash-SVI, with mortality and injury severity score (ISS) greater than 15 (ISS15).
    RESULTS: Between January 2020 and December 2022, a total of 14,706 patients were identified. Most MVCs (75.3% of all patients) occurred in the second through fourth quintiles of SVI. In all cases, Crash-SVI occurred most frequently within the same quintile as the patient\'s Home-SVI. Average crash speed limits showed a significant negative association with increasing SVI. On adjusted logistic regression, there were significantly increased odds of mortality for the fifth quintile of Home-SVI in comparison to the first quintile when adjusted for patient factors; but this lost significance after the addition of vehicular or environmental variables. In contrast, there were decreased odds of ISS15 for the highest quintiles of Crash-SVI in all logistic regression models.
    CONCLUSIONS: Geographic social vulnerability markers were associated with lower MVC-associated injury severity, perhaps in part because of the association with lower speed limit in these areas.
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  • 文章类型: Journal Article
    自2000年代中期以来,美国婴儿突然意外死亡(SUID)的发生率一直保持在大致相同的水平,尽管围绕安全睡眠进行了密集的预防工作。种族和社会经济领域的结果差异也仍然存在。这些差异反映在社区之间案件的空间分布中。预防战略应在空间和时间上准确定位,以进一步减少SUID和纠正差距。
    我们试图通过描述库克县发生SUID的社区来帮助社区一级的预防工作,IL,从2015年到2019年,并预测它将在2021-2025年使用半自动,基于开源软件和数据的可重复工作流程。
    这项横断面回顾性研究查询了2015-2019年的地理编码医学检查员数据,以识别库克县的SUID病例,IL,并将它们聚合到“社区”作为分析单位。我们使用Wilcoxon秩和统计检验比较了受SUID影响的社区与未受影响的社区的人口统计学因素。我们使用2014年的社会脆弱性指标来训练2015-2019年每个给定社区SUID病例数的负二项预测模型。我们将2020年的指标应用于经过训练的模型,对2021-2025年进行预测。
    我们对医学检查人员数据的查询的验证产生了325例最终病例,敏感性为95%(95%CI93%-97%),特异性为98%(95%CI94%-100%)。社区级别的病例计数范围从最小0到最大17。SUID病例计数地图显示了该县南部和西部地区的社区集群。所有病例数最高的社区都位于芝加哥市区范围内。受SUID影响的社区非西班牙裔白人居民的中位数比例较低,分别为17%和60%(P<.001),非西班牙裔黑人居民的中位数比例较高,分别为32%和3%(P<.001)。当在训练数据上评估时,我们的预测模型显示出中等准确性(NagelkerkeR2=70.2%,RMSE=17.49)。它预测了奥斯汀(17例),恩格尔伍德(14例),奥本·格雷沙姆(12例),芝加哥草坪(12例)南岸(11例)将在2021年至2025年期间拥有最大的病例数。
    从2015年到2019年,库克县SUID发病率的明显种族和社会经济差异仍然存在。我们的预测模型和地图确定了县内的精确区域,供地方卫生部门进行干预。其他司法管辖区可以调整我们的编码工作流程和数据源,以预测哪些社区将受到SUID的影响最大。
    UNASSIGNED: The incidence of sudden unexpected infant death (SUID) in the United States has persisted at roughly the same level since the mid-2000s, despite intensive prevention efforts around safe sleep. Disparities in outcomes across racial and socioeconomic lines also persist. These disparities are reflected in the spatial distribution of cases across neighborhoods. Strategies for prevention should be targeted precisely in space and time to further reduce SUID and correct disparities.
    UNASSIGNED: We sought to aid neighborhood-level prevention efforts by characterizing communities where SUID occurred in Cook County, IL, from 2015 to 2019 and predicting where it would occur in 2021-2025 using a semiautomated, reproducible workflow based on open-source software and data.
    UNASSIGNED: This cross-sectional retrospective study queried geocoded medical examiner data from 2015-2019 to identify SUID cases in Cook County, IL, and aggregated them to \"communities\" as the unit of analysis. We compared demographic factors in communities affected by SUID versus those unaffected using Wilcoxon rank sum statistical testing. We used social vulnerability indicators from 2014 to train a negative binomial prediction model for SUID case counts in each given community for 2015-2019. We applied indicators from 2020 to the trained model to make predictions for 2021-2025.
    UNASSIGNED: Validation of our query of medical examiner data produced 325 finalized cases with a sensitivity of 95% (95% CI 93%-97%) and a specificity of 98% (95% CI 94%-100%). Case counts at the community level ranged from a minimum of 0 to a maximum of 17. A map of SUID case counts showed clusters of communities in the south and west regions of the county. All communities with the highest case counts were located within Chicago city limits. Communities affected by SUID exhibited lower median proportions of non-Hispanic White residents at 17% versus 60% (P<.001) and higher median proportions of non-Hispanic Black residents at 32% versus 3% (P<.001). Our predictive model showed moderate accuracy when assessed on the training data (Nagelkerke R2=70.2% and RMSE=17.49). It predicted Austin (17 cases), Englewood (14 cases), Auburn Gresham (12 cases), Chicago Lawn (12 cases), and South Shore (11 cases) would have the largest case counts between 2021 and 2025.
    UNASSIGNED: Sharp racial and socioeconomic disparities in SUID incidence persisted within Cook County from 2015 to 2019. Our predictive model and maps identify precise regions within the county for local health departments to target for intervention. Other jurisdictions can adapt our coding workflows and data sources to predict which of their own communities will be most affected by SUID.
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