揭示在气候条件变化的不相同情况下丧失区域范围的危险特征对于爬行动物适应气候变暖至关重要。以中国115只爬行动物为例,通过利用与代表性浓度途径相关的气候状态变化的情景,检查了在随机和非随机气候情况下爬行动物地理范围缩小的不确定性和危险,蒙特卡罗模拟,和基于模糊集的分类方案。对于改变气候要素的非随机状态,在东北部的某些地点,115只爬行动物的丰富程度得到了改善,和中国西部,在北方的几个地区有所下降,东方,中国中部,和中国东南部:大约59-74只爬行动物丧失了目前不到20%的范围,大约25-34只爬行动物缩小了目前面积范围的20-40%,大约105-111只爬行动物居住在其整体区域范围的80%以上。对于气候要素变化的随机状态,丧失当前或整个区域范围的各种范围的爬行动物的数量随着可能性的增加而下降;超过0.6的可能性,被缩小的爬行动物的数量少于20%,20-40%,40-60%,目前范围的60-80%和80%以上分别约为28-49、5-10、1-3、0-1和13-18;居住在20%以下的爬行动物的数量,20-40%,40-60%,整个实际范围的60-80%和80%以上分别为大约0-1、5-6、1-5、0-2和35-36。在没有适应步骤的情况下,约有30%的爬行动物将面临因气候条件变化而消失的危险。对于缩小面积的爬行动物来说,构造措施是必不可少的。
Revealing the hazard features of forfeiting areal ranges for nonidentical scenarios of shifting climatic conditions is pivotal for the conformation of reptiles to climatic warming. Taking 115 reptiles in China as an example, the indefiniteness and danger of shrinking geographical range for the reptiles under stochastic and nonrandom scenarios of moving climatic situations were inspected via exploiting the scenarios of shifting climatic status associated with the representative concentration pathways, Monte Carlo simulation, and the classifications scheme based on the fuzzy set. For non-stochastic states of altering climatic elements, the richness of 115 reptiles improved in certain sites of northeastern, and western China and dropped in several areas of northern, eastern, central China, and southeastern China: roughly 59-74 reptiles forfeiting less than 20% of their present ranges, roughly 25-34 reptiles narrowing less than 20-40% of their present areal ranges, and roughly 105-111 reptiles inhabited more than 80% of their overall areal ranges. For the random status of shifting climatic elements, the count of reptiles that forfeited the various extent of the present or entire areal ranges descended with raising the eventuality; with a possibility of over 0.6, the count of reptiles that minified less than 20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80% and over 80% of the present ranges was roughly 28-49, 5-10, 1-3, 0-1 and 13-18, separately; the count of reptiles that inhabited below 20%, 20-40%, 40-60%, 60-80% and more than 80% of the entire real ranges was roughly 0-1, 5-6, 1-5, 0-2 and 35-36, separately. About 30% of 115 reptiles would face disappearance danger in response to moving climate conditions in the absence of adaption steps, and the conformation measures were indispensable for the reptiles that shrunk their areas.